Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1448.3%
Neutral1344.8%
Bearish26.9%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
The J. M. Smucker Company · SJM · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026
SJM Q4 Earnings: Uncrustables Crosses $1B as Coffee Deflation Lifts Margins
J.M. Smucker closed fiscal 2026 with a fourth-quarter EPS beat ($2.77 vs. $2.64 estimate, +4.9%) and a modest revenue beat ($2.27B vs. $2.26B estimate, +0.5%), driven by green coffee deflation expanding margins and Uncrustables crossing the $1 billion sales milestone. The stock surged 10.4% on the print, on 2.8x normal volume. Management lowered full-year revenue guidance, projecting a 3-4% decline, but expressed confidence in margin expansion through pricing actions, cost savings, and ongoing transformation initiatives. The central tension is between strong bottom-line execution and a softening top-line outlook, compounded by a planned step-up in marketing spend to 5.7% of net sales in FY27 (approximately $30 million in incremental investment). At $122.21, the stock sits modestly above the analyst consensus target of $121.00, suggesting the market is pricing in continued margin…
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$13.06B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationThe J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Coffee, and Consumer Foods. The company's extensive product offerings encompass various coffee options, including roast, ground, single-serve, and premium blends; a wide selection of spreads such as peanut butter and fruit preserves; cooking staples like shortening and oils; convenient frozen sandwiches and snacks; and a full range of pet food and treats.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.77
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+4.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.27B
Consensus $2.26B
Revenue surprise
+0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$120.56Current
$95Low
$126.5Average
$165High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 12, 2025 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Sep 1, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 9, 2021 |
| Argus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2017 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2017 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2017 | |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2016 |
| KeyBanc | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | May 26, 2016 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 12, 2013 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 7, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $120.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $116.48 | +3.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $116.66 | +7.8% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $117.05 | +3.7% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $137 | $115.78 | +13.6% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $112.39 | -4.6% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $112.39 | +7.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $125 | $112.39 | +3.7% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Alexander Clapp | $110 | $112.39 | -8.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $135 | $112.39 | +12.0% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $112.39 | +9.5% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $101.12 | -12.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $95 | $100.38 | -21.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $99.58 | -3.0% | May 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $96.97 | +11.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $94.99 | -13.7% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $96.14 | -17.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $91.04 | -14.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| BTIG | Rob Dickerson | $120 | $89.53 | -0.5% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $92.47 | +3.7% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $125 | $93.79 | +3.7% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Clapp | $105 | $104.78 | -12.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $117 | $100.38 | -3.0% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $100.38 | -4.6% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $100.38 | -6.3% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $100.38 | -8.8% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $120 | $103.61 | -0.5% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $102.59 | -4.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $106.72 | +0.4% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $106.72 | -7.1% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $94.41 | -0.5% | Jun 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $112.09 | -1.3% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Rob Dickerson | $116 | $118.46 | -3.8% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $121 | $113.79 | +0.4% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $136 | $113.79 | +12.8% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Thomas Palmer | $138 | $120.93 | +14.5% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Taylor Conrad | $135 | $110.13 | +12.0% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $121 | $115 | +0.4% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $139 | $115.37 | +15.3% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $131 | $115.43 | +8.7% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Kaye | $140 | $116.42 | +16.1% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ken Goldman | $128 | $116.94 | +6.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $135 | $116.94 | +12.0% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $137 | $116.94 | +13.6% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Rob Dickerson | $121 | $110.4 | +0.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $129 | $115.21 | +7.0% | May 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $131 | $116.35 | +8.7% | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $153 | $140.4 | +26.9% | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $158 | $155.82 | +31.1% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $165 | $154.27 | +36.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $155 | $154.17 | +28.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $131 | $122.22 | +8.7% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Wendy Nicholson | $131 | $130.7 | +8.7% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $114 | $131.34 | -5.4% | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $140 | $131.34 | +16.1% | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $136 | $132.66 | +12.8% | Nov 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on SJM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.4%
Up to 20 sessions
SJMSPY benchmark
Follow SJM with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior quarter, bullish sentiment increased from 68 to 75 as several previously flagged headwinds showed tangible improvement. Uncrustables moved from approaching $1 billion in sales to having crossed that threshold, with a fridge-friendly format now rolling out across all SKUs. The Hostess plant fire disruption that weighed on the prior quarter has been resolved, with manufacturing footprint consolidation completed and Hostess donuts growing 13%. Coffee deflation benefits, flagged as a tailwind in Q3, materialized clearly in Q4 margins. The transformation office advanced from early-stage work to implementing a buy-make-move supply-chain model. However, guidance sentiment shifted from maintained to lowered, and management signaled higher marketing investment ahead, creating a more cautious forward revenue posture despite the operational progress.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment moved from maintained (Q3) to lowered (Q4). Full-year revenue is projected to decline 3-4%. Marketing spend will increase to roughly 5.7% of net sales in FY27, adding approximately $30 million. Cost inflation is expected to remain low single digits across packaging, ingredients, and transportation. Capex outlook is stable. Management continues to target leverage below 3x by end of next fiscal year, which could enable future share repurchases.
Key takeaways
- Q4 EPS of $2.77 beat the $2.64 consensus by 4.9%, while revenue of $2.27B edged the $2.26B estimate by 0.5%.
- Uncrustables surpassed $1 billion in sales and is transitioning to a fridge-friendly format across the entire portfolio.
- Green coffee deflation continued to boost coffee segment margins, with Bustelo as a key contributor.
- Hostess donuts grew 13%, and the company completed manufacturing footprint consolidation following the prior plant fire disruption.
- Marketing spend will increase to roughly 5.7% of net sales in FY27, adding approximately $30 million.
- The transformation office is shifting focus to a buy-make-move supply-chain model to drive further cost savings.
Management priorities
- Launch fridge-friendly Uncrustables across all SKUs.
- Introduce limited-ingredient stabilized peanut butter.
- Continue the cost-savings program targeting multiple revenue points across the business.
- Further SKU rationalization and manufacturing footprint optimization.
- Pursue debt reduction toward below 3x leverage, enabling potential future share repurchases.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-06-09T15:23:06.215593+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T13:21:35.037462+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T13:21:35.033791+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.