The J. M. Smucker Company · SJM · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2024

Smucker maintains guidance as Hostess and Uncrustables shape the outlook

The current analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: coffee and Uncrustables provide operating support, while Hostess execution, pricing elasticity and softer near-term sales create the main tests.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $12.81B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $2.49
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $2.26B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.7% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +5.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.6% Up to 20 sessions
SJMSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about SJM FY2025 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove SJM's +5.7% move after FY2025 Q2 earnings?What changed in SJM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for SJM after FY2025 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, Hostess integration is now complete and management has shifted to marketing, packaging and co-promotion execution. Full-year guidance is maintained, with the EPS midpoint raised to $9.90; Q3 sales are expected to be flat year over year, and the company highlighted $100 million of Hostess synergies plus a $0.60-per-share FY25 stranded-overhead impact.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year guidance and raised the EPS midpoint to $9.90, with a 37.5%-38% gross-margin outlook.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Q2 momentum in coffee and pet products, but expects Q3 sales to be flat year over year.
  • Hostess integration is complete, with marketing, packaging, pricing and co-promotion initiatives planned.
  • Uncrustables innovation and capacity expansion remain central growth drivers.
  • Coffee pricing is intended to offset green-coffee inflation, with volume and margin elasticity a key risk.
  • Management cited $100 million of Hostess cost synergies and a $0.60-per-share FY25 stranded-overhead impact from the Wortmann divestiture.

Management priorities

  • Execute the Hostess marketing campaign, packaging refresh and one-dollar pack formats.
  • Expand Uncrustables through new flavors and additional capacity.
  • Use coffee pricing to address green-coffee inflation while monitoring elasticity.
  • Deliver Hostess cost synergies and use Wortmann proceeds for debt paydown.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SJM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $2.33 Q4 '24 actual $2.66, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2.17 Q1 '25 actual $2.44, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.24 Q4 '25 actual $2.31, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.93 Q1 '26 actual $1.90, miss Q2 '26 estimate $2.10 Q2 '26 actual $2.10, match Q3 '26 estimate $2.27 Q3 '26 actual $2.38, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.64 Q4 '26 actual $2.77, beat Q1 '27 estimate $2.22 Q1 '27 actual $3.24, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.55 Q3 '27 estimate $2.54
Show 2 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1448.3%
Neutral1344.8%
Bearish26.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$119.83Current
$100Low
$131.63Average
$165High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 27, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainAug 27, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 25 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $119.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Coker PalmerThomas Palmer$149$132.44 +24.3%Aug 27, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$150$131 +25.2%Aug 27, 2026
Evercore ISIDavid Palmer$150$130.9 +25.2%Aug 27, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$157$130.9 +31.0%Aug 27, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$144$130.9 +20.2%Aug 27, 2026
See 62 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Coffee, and Consumer Foods. The company's extensive product offerings encompass various coffee options, including roast, ground, single-serve, and premium blends; a wide selection of spreads such as peanut butter and fruit preserves; cooking staples like shortening and oils; convenient frozen sandwiches and snacks; and a full range of pet food and treats.…

Historical context

All SJM earnings
+4.3%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026+10.4%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026+8.8%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2026

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
PEP PepsiCo, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.2% +3.7% PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.4% +2.4% Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance
LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +27.8% +7.5% Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.9% -4.9% McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft
CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +44.4% -4.9% Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.2% +2.9% Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-12T00:05:02.794111+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T00:00:44.688568+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T00:00:44.685695+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.