Starbucks Corporation · SBUX · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026

Starbucks raises FY2026 outlook as comps and margins accelerate

The current quarter strengthens the case that Starbucks's earnings growth can continue if Back to Starbucks initiatives, product innovation, and international expansion sustain comparable-sales momentum and margin gains. The main counterweight is execution and cost risk: management still needs to scale store improvements, manage coffee and tariff exposure, and convert digital and delivery investments into durable returns.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $108.19B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.85 Consensus $0.66
EPS surprise +28.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $9.32B Consensus $9.17B
Revenue surprise +1.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +1.6% Event window
SPY move +1.7% Same window
Abnormal move -0.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.3% Up to 20 sessions
SBUXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Starbucks reported stronger comparable-sales and margin performance, introduced additional product and technology initiatives, and raised its FY2026 outlook. The China business also moved to a 40% joint-venture structure, changing the international growth model.

Guidance delta

Guidance was raised from the prior quarter's FY2026 EPS outlook of $2.25-$2.45 and global comps of at least 5% to current FY2026 EPS of $2.55-$2.65, consolidated margin above 11%, and revenue flat to slightly higher.

Key takeaways

  • Global comparable sales increased 7.9%, with North America comparable sales up 8.1%.
  • Operating margin expanded 430 basis points to 14.4%.
  • Management linked momentum to Back to Starbucks initiatives, coffee-house uplifts, staffing improvements, and Refreshers.
  • The China transition to a 40% joint venture supports a more capital-light international model, while execution remains important.

Management priorities

  • Complete at least 1,500 coffee-house uplifts by fiscal year-end 2026 and accelerate the program in FY2027.
  • Continue product innovation, including Refreshers, seasonal beverages, and Spritzer testing.
  • Modernize ordering, staffing, scheduling, inventory, and POS systems in FY2027.
  • Expand delivery, digital ordering, international operations, and the China joint-venture model.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SBUX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $9B Q1 '24 actual $9B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $9B Q2 '24 actual $9B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $9B Q3 '24 actual $9B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $9B Q4 '24 actual $9B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $9B Q3 '25 actual $9B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $9B Q4 '25 actual $10B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $10B Q1 '26 actual $10B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $9B Q2 '26 actual $10B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $9B Q4 '26 estimate $9B Q1 '27 estimate $10B

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold57 ratings
Bullish2849.1%
Neutral2645.6%
Bearish35.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$95.22Current
$70Low
$108.1Average
$165High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainJul 30, 2026
Show 53 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $95.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$120$108.02 +26.0%Aug 18, 2026
Melius ResearchAnalyst unavailable$110$105.16 +15.5%Aug 3, 2026
D.A. DavidsonMatt Curtis$110$107.62 +15.5%Jul 30, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$126$105.75 +32.3%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$124$104.14 +30.2%Jul 30, 2026
See 128 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International markets, and Channel Development. The company's retail outlets offer a broad assortment of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve options, and ready-to-drink products. Customers can also find a variety of food items, including pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch selections.…

Historical context

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Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-06T15:18:45.169664+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-03T01:23:14.877038+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T15:10:55.483245+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T15:10:55.480336+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.