RTX Corporation · RTX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

RTX beats Q1 estimates and raises FY outlook despite weak stock reaction

RTX's Q1 beat was driven by double-digit organic growth across commercial and defense, EPS up 21% year over year, and a record $271B backlog with 1.14 book-to-bill. Management responded by raising full-year sales and EPS guidance, signaling confidence in sustained demand from rising global defense budgets, GTF engine and aftermarket momentum, and multi-year munitions framework agreements. The sharply negative market reaction (roughly -3.7% on the session, with further drift lower) stands in contrast to the beat and raised outlook, suggesting investors were focused on margin pressure from tariffs and rare-earth costs, heavy capex, and GTF cash-compensation headwinds rather than the reported results.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $254.20B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.78 Consensus $1.51
EPS surprise +17.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.08B Consensus $21.46B
Revenue surprise +2.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -4.4% Event window
SPY move -0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.8% Up to 20 sessions
RTXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

RTX delivered adjusted EPS of $1.78 versus $1.51 estimated (+17.9% surprise) and revenue of $22.08B versus $21.46B estimated (+2.9%), with adjusted sales up 10% organically. Backlog rose to a record $271B from $268B, and the company raised its full-year adjusted sales outlook by $500M and EPS outlook by $0.10. Despite the beat and raise, shares fell about 3.7% on the session (versus a 0.7% benchmark move) and drifted another roughly 6.8% lower subsequently.

Guidance delta

Raised full-year 2026 adjusted sales outlook by $500M and adjusted EPS outlook by $0.10; guidance sentiment moved from maintained (Q4) to raised (Q1), supported by a record backlog and strong defense awards.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 adjusted sales up 10% organically to $22.1B; adjusted EPS up 21% YoY to $1.78; free cash flow of $1.3B
  • Record backlog of $271B with book-to-bill of 1.14, signaling sustained order flow
  • Full-year adjusted sales outlook raised by $500M and EPS outlook by $0.10
  • Defense secured over $12B of new awards plus framework agreements for munitions
  • GTF Advantage engine certified, with Hot Section Plus retrofit introduced
  • Shares fell ~3.7% on the session despite the beat, with further drift lower since

Management priorities

  • Expand capacity at Pratt's Columbus, GA ($200M) and Raytheon's Huntsville, AL ($115M), Tucson and Andover sites
  • Deploy robotics and automation from Singapore across other MRO sites
  • Commercially launch the GTF Advantage engine and Hot Section Plus retrofit
  • Scale hybrid-electric propulsion technology for regional aircraft
  • Finalize and execute framework agreements for critical munitions production

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
RTX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.24 Q4 '23 actual $1.29, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1.23 Q1 '24 actual $1.34, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.30 Q2 '24 actual $1.41, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.34 Q3 '24 actual $1.45, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.44 Q2 '25 actual $1.56, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.41 Q3 '25 actual $1.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.47 Q4 '25 actual $1.55, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.51 Q1 '26 actual $1.78, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.66 Q2 '26 actual $1.89, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.77 Q4 '26 estimate $1.83 Q1 '27 estimate $1.77 Q2 '27 estimate $2.01
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy26 ratings
Bullish1765.4%
Neutral934.6%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$189.4Current
$85Low
$174.22Average
$250High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 23, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 27, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 24, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 24, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainJul 24, 2026
Show 21 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $189.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinDouglas Harned$223$190.99 +17.7%Sep 23, 2026
BernsteinDouglas Harned$232$215.22 +22.5%Aug 3, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$245$211.9 +29.4%Jul 30, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$238$217.52 +25.7%Jul 27, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$250$212.79 +32.0%Jul 26, 2026
See 67 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

RTX Corporation, a major player in the aerospace and defense sectors, provides sophisticated systems and extensive services to a diverse global clientele. This includes commercial entities, military organizations, and government agencies, both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary business units: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace segment delivers a broad range of aerospace and defense products, alongside comprehensive aftermarket support solutions. Its customer base spans manufacturers of civil and military aircraft, commercial airlines, and operators in regional, business, general aviation, defense, and commercial space ventures. This division's offerings cover the design, production, and maintenance of aircraft interior components, such as oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation and storage facilities, galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-25T19:20:58.699024+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-25T19:20:58.696306+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.