Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish1955.9%
Neutral1544.1%
Bearish00.0%
Republic Services, Inc. · RSG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Republic Services Beats Q1 Estimates on Pricing Power and Margin Expansion
Republic Services delivered a Q1 2026 beat driven by disciplined pricing and margin expansion despite fuel price spikes and weather disruptions. The company is executing on multiple growth levers: AI-driven pricing and routing via the RISE platform, renewable natural gas projects, polymer centers, and a strategic acquisition pipeline exceeding $1 billion. With $984 million in free cash flow and $507 million returned to shareholders in the quarter, management is balancing growth investment with capital returns. The stock dipped 1.6% on an abnormal basis post-earnings but subsequently drifted positive, suggesting the market is digesting the results without alarm. The maintained full-year guidance and confident tone indicate management sees the growth path intact.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$66.65B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationRepublic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and responsible disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, in addition to other environmental solutions. Its collection activities encompass curbside pickups, facilitating transport to transfer stations, landfills, or recycling facilities; the provision of waste and recycling containers; and compactor rentals. Beyond collection, Republic Services engages in the processing and sale of commodities such as old corrugated containers, newsprint, aluminum, and glass.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.70
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.11B
Consensus $4.10B
Revenue surprise
+0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$221.04Current
$140Low
$233.17Average
$270High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2025 |
| CIBC | Sector Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Feb 5, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 12, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 25, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 22, 2016 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 5, 2014 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2013 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2013 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 13, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $221.04. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Jon Windham | $223 | $197.73 | +0.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $233 | $200.02 | +5.4% | May 11, 2026 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $249 | $200.48 | +12.6% | May 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $219.5 | +2.7% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $211.33 | +12.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $212.45 | +1.8% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $215.75 | +15.4% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $212.97 | +9.5% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $210.96 | +6.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $210.2 | -0.5% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Bubes | $255 | $219 | +15.4% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Jerry Revich | $238 | $206.02 | +7.7% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $248 | $205.28 | +12.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $240 | $206.35 | +8.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $208.68 | +11.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $209.62 | +8.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $209.92 | +15.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $240 | $221.03 | +8.6% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $225.16 | +13.1% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $224.15 | +17.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $229.06 | +16.3% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $226.71 | +8.6% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $231.69 | +28.5% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $231.69 | +17.6% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | JOhn Mazzoni | $270 | $250.85 | +22.1% | May 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $243.56 | +20.3% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $243.56 | +10.8% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $245 | $243.56 | +10.8% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $264 | $235.76 | +19.4% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $260 | $231.37 | +17.6% | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $235 | $198.81 | +6.3% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $244 | $202.32 | +10.4% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $220 | $204.31 | -0.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $219 | $204.69 | -0.9% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $211 | $189.33 | -4.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $203 | $186.48 | -8.2% | May 22, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Hoffman | $210 | $185.98 | -5.0% | May 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $202 | $182.84 | -8.6% | May 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $201 | $183.11 | -9.1% | May 1, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $203 | $191.76 | -8.2% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $198 | $188.4 | -10.4% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $193 | $186.31 | -12.7% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $128.68 | -34.9% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $136.9 | -33.0% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $165 | $134.56 | -25.4% | Oct 24, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $155 | $142.82 | -29.9% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $140 | $133.7 | -36.7% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $124 | $117.12 | -43.9% | Jul 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on RSG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.5%
Up to 20 sessions
RSGSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q1 2026 revenue grew 2.6% to $4.11 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.70, beating the $1.64 consensus by 3.7%. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 50 basis points to 32.1% despite fuel cost spikes and weather headwinds. The company generated $984 million in free cash flow and completed $433 million in acquisitions during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total above $700 million. $507 million was returned to shareholders. Management highlighted that AI-driven pricing and routing tools are expected to begin delivering measurable benefits in 2026, scaling to $100 million of annual benefit by 2028. The RNG portfolio will reach 82 projects after adding four in 2026, each contributing approximately $10 million in EBITDA. The electric collection vehicle fleet is on track to exceed 300 trucks.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 guidance was maintained. Management reiterated approximately 3.1% revenue growth, approximately 3.6% adjusted EBITDA growth, and an acquisition target exceeding $1 billion. Capex outlook remained stable. This is consistent with the prior quarter's guidance posture, where the same targets were introduced and subsequently reaffirmed.
Key takeaways
- Q1 EPS of $1.70 beat the $1.64 estimate by 3.7%; revenue of $4.11 billion edged past the $4.10 billion consensus.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 50 bps to 32.1% despite fuel price spikes and weather disruptions.
- $984 million in free cash flow generated; $507 million returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
- $433 million in Q1 acquisitions brings YTD total above $700 million, targeting over $1 billion for 2026.
- AI and digital tools (RISE platform) projected to add $100 million of annual benefit by 2028.
- RNG portfolio reaching 82 projects; four new in 2026 contributing roughly $10 million in EBITDA this year.
Management priorities
- Scaling AI-driven pricing and routing efficiencies through the RISE digital platform, with full benefit expected by 2028.
- Executing over $1 billion in strategic acquisitions across recycling, waste, and environmental solutions.
- Expanding sustainability investments including RNG projects, polymer centers, and electric vehicle fleet.
- Maintaining pricing discipline and cost control to drive continued margin expansion.
- Returning capital to shareholders while investing in growth initiatives.
- Investing in organics processing facilities in California and Colorado to meet state and local regulatory requirements.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsURI · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026United Rentals Q2: Record Revenue, Raised Guidance, and a Possible Investment-Grade UpgradeNSC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Norfolk Southern Beats on Volume Strength as Intermodal and Coal Drive Q2 GrowthHON · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Honeywell Q2: Beat and Raise as Portfolio Reshaping Nears Completion
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T15:02:08.930026+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T15:02:08.927265+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.