Rocket Lab USA, Inc. · RKLB · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Rocket Lab: Record Q1, Larger Backlog, Neutron Still on Track

Rocket Lab’s current evidence supports a growth thesis built on launch demand, Space Systems expansion, defense programs and vertical integration. The thesis is increasingly dependent on executing Neutron on schedule, converting backlog into revenue and managing margin and capital intensity.

Reported After market closeNASDAQIndustrials $42.81B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.02 Consensus $-0.07
EPS surprise +70.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $200.3M Consensus $189.6M
Revenue surprise +5.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +34.2% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +33.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +7.8% Up to 20 sessions
RKLBSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis adds record Q1 performance, a backlog above $2.2 billion, a $190 million Neutron multi-launch contract, the Motive acquisition and the GA electric-propulsion thruster launch. Management’s Neutron target remains a first launch by year-end, while the prior analysis had described a Q4 2026 target.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its outlook and provided Q2 revenue guidance of $225 million to $240 million, with GAAP gross margin guidance of 33% to 35% and non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 38% to 40%.

Key takeaways

  • Management described record Q1 revenue and a backlog above $2.2 billion, with launch and Space Systems demand both contributing.
  • The Neutron program remains targeted for a first launch by year-end, while management highlighted a $190 million multi-launch contract.
  • Motive Space Systems, Mynaric, Monarch and other acquisitions are intended to deepen vertical integration and expand Rocket Lab’s European footprint.
  • The next proof points are Neutron execution, launch-capacity expansion and the margin effect of government and Space Systems work.

Management priorities

  • Deliver the first Neutron launch by year-end and conduct reusability testing on Flight 2.
  • Scale Electron and HASTE launch cadence while building toward higher annual Electron capacity.
  • Integrate acquired capabilities and ramp GA electric-propulsion thruster production.
  • Expand European operations and pursue defense and commercial space demand.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
RKLB EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $-0.09 Q4 '23 actual $-0.10, match Q1 '24 estimate $-0.11 Q1 '24 actual $-0.09, beat Q2 '24 estimate $-0.10 Q2 '24 actual $-0.08, beat Q2 '25 estimate $-0.10 Q2 '25 actual $-0.10, match Q3 '25 estimate $-0.10 Q3 '25 actual $0.01, beat Q4 '25 estimate $-0.10 Q4 '25 actual $-0.09, match Q1 '26 estimate $-0.07 Q1 '26 actual $-0.02, beat Q2 '26 estimate $-0.06 Q2 '26 actual $-0.08, miss Q3 '26 estimate $-0.05 Q4 '26 estimate $-0.04 Q1 '27 estimate $-0.03

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1676.2%
Neutral419.0%
Bearish14.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$72.57Current
$4.5Low
$78.85Average
$135High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 31, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainAug 11, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 11, 2026
KGI Securities Outperform NeutralUpgradeJul 27, 2026
Roth Capital Buy BuyMaintainJun 30, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainJun 30, 2026
Craig-Hallum Buy BuyMaintainJun 30, 2026
Keybanc Overweight Sector WeightUpgradeJun 15, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainMay 12, 2026
BTIG Hold HoldMaintainMay 12, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainMay 8, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainApr 20, 2026
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainJan 20, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeJan 16, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 14, 2025
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 8, 2025
Citizens Capital Markets Market Perform Market PerformMaintainMar 14, 2025
Roth MKM Buy BuyMaintainJun 18, 2024
Credit Suisse Underperform UnderperformMaintainOct 12, 2022
Cowen & Co. Outperform Market PerformUpgradeAug 31, 2022
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainSep 9, 2021
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $72.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Raymond JamesBrian Gesuale$80$61.96 +10.2%Sep 11, 2026
Berenberg BankAnalyst unavailable$83$62.54 +14.4%Sep 2, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$122$78.85 +68.1%Aug 11, 2026
Roth CapitalAnalyst unavailable$110$80.04 +51.6%Aug 11, 2026
KGI SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$107$63.91 +47.4%Jul 27, 2026
Piper SandlerAlexander Potter$83$76.2 +14.4%Jul 15, 2026
Roth CapitalSuji Desilva$130$98.01 +79.1%Jun 29, 2026
Craig-HallumJeff Van Rhee$120$98.1 +65.4%Jun 29, 2026
KeyBancMichael Leshock$135$102.39 +86.0%Jun 15, 2026
KGI SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$105$105.05 +44.7%Jun 11, 2026
Stifel NicolausErik Rasmussen$132$114.7 +81.9%Jun 4, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$120$116.16 +65.4%May 12, 2026
Craig-HallumAnalyst unavailable$98$78.58 +35.0%May 8, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$105$87.75 +44.7%Apr 20, 2026
Roth CapitalAnalyst unavailable$100$82.93 +37.8%Apr 17, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$85$68.37 +17.1%Mar 13, 2026
Goldman SachsAnthony Valentini$69$96.3 -4.9%Jan 20, 2026
Morgan StanleyKristine Liwag$105$90.76 +44.7%Jan 16, 2026
NeedhamRyan Koontz$90$77.55 +24.0%Dec 23, 2025
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$85$70.52 +17.1%Dec 22, 2025
NeedhamRyan Koontz$63$54.98 -13.2%Nov 12, 2025
Roth CapitalSuji Desilva$75$51.9 +3.3%Nov 11, 2025
Stifel NicolausErik Rasmussen$75$51.9 +3.3%Nov 11, 2025
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$75$67 +3.3%Oct 17, 2025
Robert W. BairdPeter Arment$83$69.27 +14.4%Oct 15, 2025
Cantor FitzgeraldAndres Sheppard$35$42.34 -51.8%Jul 14, 2025
Stifel NicolausErik Rasmussen$31$27.95 -57.3%Jan 8, 2025
KeyBancMike Leschock$12$10.91 -83.5%Oct 23, 2024
KeyBancMike Leschock$11$8.69 -84.8%Sep 27, 2024
Morgan StanleyKristine Liwag$6$5.65 -91.7%Jul 15, 2024
Goldman SachsNoah Poponak$4.5$4.56 -93.8%Jun 11, 2024
Stifel NicolausErik Rasmussen$9$3.76 -87.6%May 7, 2024
CitigroupJason Gursky$6$4.66 -91.7%Feb 12, 2024
KeyBancMichael Leshock$8$4.92 -89.0%Jan 17, 2024
Stifel NicolausErik Rasmussen$10$4.3 -86.2%Sep 27, 2023
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$12$5.36 -83.5%Nov 14, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$10$5.63 -86.2%Nov 11, 2022
Cowen & Co.Sam Boughedda$8$5.52 -89.0%Aug 31, 2022
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$15$5.99 -79.3%Aug 17, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$15$6.94 -79.3%Aug 15, 2022
Wells FargoMatthew Akers$5$4.2 -93.1%Jun 21, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$14$5.66 -80.7%May 17, 2022
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T15:31:02.333078+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T15:31:02.330364+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.