Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy22 ratings
Bullish22100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Rubrik, Inc. · RBRK · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Rubrik raises FY2026 guidance as AI and cyber resilience expand
Rubrik’s raised FY2026 outlook, strong subscription growth, positive free cash flow, and expanding AI and cyber-resilience offerings support a constructive operating thesis. The evidence is not conclusive: management still faces questions about cash conversion, sales-plan seasonality, AI adoption, competitive intensity, and the durability of material-rights revenue.
Reported After market closeNYSETechnology
$25.76B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.03
Consensus $-0.34
EPS surprise
+91.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$309.9M
Consensus $282.2M
Revenue surprise
+9.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-18.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-18.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
6.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.4%
Up to 20 sessions
RBRKSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RBRK FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did RBRK fall 18.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in RBRK's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for RBRK after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current quarter added the Predibase acquisition and Agent Rewind to Rubrik’s AI expansion, reported subscription ARR of $1.25 billion and subscription revenue of $297 million, and raised FY2026 guidance. Compared with the prior quarter, free cash flow increased to $57.5 million from $33 million while the guidance range moved higher; the market reaction was materially negative, so investor concerns about execution and durability remain unresolved.
Guidance delta
Management raised FY2026 guidance to ARR of $1.408–$1.416 billion and revenue of $1.227–$1.237 billion.
Key takeaways
- Subscription ARR reached $1.25 billion, up 36% year over year, while subscription revenue grew 55% to $297 million.
- Free cash flow was $57.5 million, with a 19% margin; net retention remained above 120%.
- Predibase and Agent Rewind broaden Rubrik’s AI offering, while identity resilience and cloud protection remain core growth areas.
- The shares fell sharply in the event-to-next-session window despite the guidance raise, making execution and demand durability important follow-ups.
Management priorities
- Scale AI solutions, including Agent Rewind and expanded Predibase capabilities.
- Broaden identity resilience and integrate it with DSPM.
- Add cloud workload protections, deepen SaaS partnerships, and pursue certifications such as FedRAMP.
- Continue investment in R&D and go-to-market initiatives.
Follow RBRK with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$125.14Current
$41Low
$81.13Average
$120High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 6, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $125.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Jonathan Ruykhaver | $120 | $94.92 | -4.1% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Rudy Kessinger | $115 | $96.69 | -8.1% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $107.02 | -4.1% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Joe Vandrick | $114 | $98.04 | -8.9% | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Param Singh | $120 | $99.47 | -4.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Matthew Martino | $106 | $100.55 | -15.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $74.74 | -20.1% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Rudy Kessinger | $90 | $67.94 | -28.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Jonathan Ruykhaver | $95 | $71.32 | -24.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Stephens | Ren Hefley | $90 | $77 | -28.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $77 | -24.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $90 | $77 | -28.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $77 | -28.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Junaid Siddiqui | $90 | $77 | -28.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| BTIG | Gray Powell | $91 | $77 | -27.3% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $77 | -24.1% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rubrik to Outperform | $85 | $64.33 | -32.1% | May 20, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $53.18 | -44.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $52.28 | -48.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Joe Vandrick | $70 | $53.6 | -44.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| CIBC | Todd Coupland | $110 | $51.84 | -12.1% | Mar 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $70 | $53.6 | -44.1% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Rudy Kessinger | $70 | $54.5 | -44.1% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Jonathan Ruykhaver | $85 | $54.02 | -32.1% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $47.26 | -48.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Stephens | Todd Weller | $105 | $78.01 | -16.1% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Eric Heath | $113 | $70.43 | -9.7% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | John DiFucci | $110 | $70.43 | -12.1% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | John DiFucci | $108 | $69.32 | -13.7% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Joel Fishbein | $50 | $43.48 | -60.0% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $38 | $29.91 | -69.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Fatima Boolani | $48 | $29.82 | -61.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $43 | $29.87 | -65.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Rubrik one | $42 | $33.41 | -66.4% | Aug 19, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Shrenik Kothari | $42 | $33.85 | -66.4% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Eric Heath | $48 | $34.74 | -61.6% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Yi Fu Lee | $50 | $30.26 | -60.0% | May 30, 2024 |
| CIBC | Todd Coupland | $50 | $34.83 | -60.0% | May 22, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brad Zelnick | $42 | $36.07 | -66.4% | May 21, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Eric Heath | $46 | $36.07 | -63.2% | May 20, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $46 | $36.57 | -63.2% | May 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Joel Fishbein | $43 | $36.57 | -65.6% | May 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Andrew Nowinski | $42 | $36.57 | -66.4% | May 20, 2024 |
| Barclays | Saket Kalia | $41 | $36.57 | -67.2% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $40 | $36.57 | -68.0% | May 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $48 | $36.57 | -61.6% | May 20, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | John DiFucci | $48 | $36.57 | -61.6% | May 20, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Eric Heath | $46 | $36.57 | -63.2% | May 20, 2024 |
Track every rating change on RBRK the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationRubrik, Inc. operates as a global provider of advanced data security solutions, catering to a wide range of individuals and businesses. The company's comprehensive suite of offerings addresses various aspects of data protection, including securing enterprise data, unstructured data, cloud environments, and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) applications. Beyond foundational protection, Rubrik also furnishes tools for data threat analytics, assessing an organization's security posture, and critical cyber recovery capabilities to aid in post-incident remediation. Rubrik serves an extensive array of sectors, counting financial services, retail, trade, transportation, energy, industrial, healthcare, life sciences, education, technology, media, communications, and government entities among its clientele. Established in 2013, the company was initially known as Scaledata, Inc., rebranding to Rubrik, Inc. in October 2014. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Palo Alto, California.
Historical context
All RBRK earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN Accenture plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.5% | +15.8% | Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.1% | -10.0% | Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +5.4% | +0.0% | Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead |
| SNX TD Synnex Corp | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +20.9% | -9.9% | TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +0.8% | +1.4% | Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens |
| ORCL Oracle Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +10.3% | -1.7% | Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
Get the RBRK recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T04:50:40.197094+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T04:50:40.194977+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.