PayPal Holdings, Inc. · PYPL · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

PayPal reports broad growth and raises full-year guidance

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: PayPal's growth across branded checkout, BNPL and Venmo, alongside raised guidance, provides evidence of resilient demand; the one-year case still depends on converting agentic-commerce and interoperability investments into durable growth without worsening margins or losses.

Reported Before market openNASDAQFinancial Services $45.17B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.34 Consensus $1.20
EPS surprise +11.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $8.42B Consensus $8.24B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.9% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -16.2% Up to 20 sessions
PYPLSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, PayPal added a first dividend, highlighted multi-year AI partnerships and a PayPal World pilot, while maintaining raised guidance and broadening its focus on omnichannel checkout, biometric checkout and international BNPL.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year guidance for transaction-margin dollars and non-GAAP EPS, continuing the prior quarter's raised-guidance stance.

Key takeaways

  • Transaction-margin dollars grew 6–7% year over year and EPS rose 12% in Q3.
  • Branded-experiences TPV grew 8%, BNPL volume grew more than 20%, and Venmo TPV grew 14%.
  • PayPal announced a first dividend while continuing share repurchases.
  • The investment agenda centers on omnichannel checkout, agentic commerce, biometric checkout, and international BNPL.

Management priorities

  • Expand omnichannel branded checkout and improve product attachment and conversion.
  • Scale agentic commerce and develop PayPal World interoperability.
  • Expand BNPL internationally and advance Venmo monetization.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PYPL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.99 Q2 '24 actual $1.19, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.07 Q3 '24 actual $1.20, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.11 Q4 '24 actual $1.19, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1.30 Q2 '25 actual $1.40, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.20 Q3 '25 actual $1.34, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.29 Q4 '25 actual $1.23, miss Q1 '26 estimate $1.27 Q1 '26 actual $1.34, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.28 Q2 '26 actual $1.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.31 Q4 '26 estimate $1.35 Q1 '27 estimate $1.43 Q2 '27 estimate $1.46
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold68 ratings
Bullish2435.3%
Neutral4160.3%
Bearish34.4%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$54.41Current
$40Low
$94.28Average
$290High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 31, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 31, 2026
Loop Capital Hold HoldMaintainAug 28, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 17, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 3, 2026
Show 64 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $54.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$55$53.22 +1.1%Sep 25, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$70$53.66 +28.7%Aug 31, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$53$53.66 -2.6%Aug 31, 2026
Loop Capital MarketsDominick Gabriele$50$61.47 -8.1%Aug 28, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$51$61.47 -6.3%Aug 28, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

PayPal Holdings, Inc. provides a worldwide technological framework that facilitates digital financial transactions for both businesses and individual users. The company offers a wide array of payment services through well-known brands such as PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy. Through its extensive platform, consumers are able to send and receive funds across roughly 200 global markets and in approximately 100 different currencies. Additionally, users can transfer money to their bank accounts in 56 currencies and maintain account balances in 25 distinct currencies within their PayPal accounts. Founded in 1998, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T22:30:41.218242+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T22:30:41.215376+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.