Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
PM Beats Q2 on Smoke-Free Momentum, Holds Full-Year Guidance
Philip Morris International delivered a strong Q2 2026 beat, with EPS of $2.20 exceeding consensus of $2.05 by 7.3% and revenue of $11.19B surpassing estimates of $10.60B by 5.6%. The smoke-free portfolio - IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV - remains the primary growth engine, delivering double-digit volume gains across many markets. Combustible sales also outperformed expectations, supported by strong pricing and emerging-market volume. Management maintained full-year guidance (5-7% revenue growth, 7-9% operating income growth, EPS $8.26-$8.41) despite accelerating U.S. investment in ZYN marketing and new product launches. The market responded positively, with shares rising 3.3% on the report and continuing to drift higher. The key question ahead is whether smoke-free momentum can offset rising regulatory and competitive headwinds in Japan and Europe.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$304.95B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.20
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+7.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.19B
Consensus $10.60B
Revenue surprise
+5.6%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$195.66Previous close
$99Low
$155.57Average
$221High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 17, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $195.66. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +13.0% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +4.8% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +9.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +9.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +10.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -7.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | +2.2% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -14.1% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | -2.9% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | -0.3% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +4.8% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -7.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +4.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | +2.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -8.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -10.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -8.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -4.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -7.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -20.8% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -27.4% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -32.5% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -31.0% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -25.9% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -29.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -29.5% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -41.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -38.7% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -39.7% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -42.2% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -43.8% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -39.7% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -23.3% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -41.7% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -49.4% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -44.3% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -40.2% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -42.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -46.3% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -43.8% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -45.3% | Jun 1, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.7%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Versus Q1, Q2 saw organic revenue growth moderate from 9% to 8% YoY, while operating income growth accelerated to 11%. New developments this quarter include IQOS being named to Kantar's top 100 most valuable global brands for the first time, the launch of BONDS by IQOS in Poland, Czech Republic, and Morocco, and ZYN receiving MRTP (modified risk tobacco product) authorization in the U.S., enabling reduced-risk marketing claims. Capex outlook shifted to increasing as the company invests in U.S. production capacity. Management also highlighted an accelerated U.S. marketing push with the 'When it Clicks' campaign and expanded ZYN nicotine strengths (1.5 mg, 8 mg, and ZYN Ultra).
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 guidance was maintained for the second consecutive quarter: 5-7% organic revenue growth, 7-9% operating income growth, and EPS of $8.26-$8.41. No upward revision despite the beat, suggesting management is building in a cushion for regulatory and macro risks, particularly Japan excise-tax hikes and European flavor bans.
Key takeaways
- Q2 EPS of $2.20 beat consensus of $2.05 by 7.3%; revenue of $11.19B exceeded estimates of $10.60B by 5.6%.
- Smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN, VEEV) drove double-digit volume growth across multiple markets, reinforcing their role as the primary growth engine.
- Full-year guidance held at 5-7% revenue growth, 7-9% operating income growth, and EPS $8.26-$8.41 for the second straight quarter.
- ZYN received MRTP authorization in the U.S., enabling reduced-risk marketing claims - a significant regulatory milestone for the pouch business.
- Combustible sales outperformed expectations, supported by pricing power and emerging-market volume in Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and India.
- U.S. investment is accelerating with ZYN Ultra rollout, new nicotine strengths, and the 'When it Clicks' marketing campaign.
Management priorities
- Roll out IQOS ILUMA in the United States pending FDA approval.
- Expand ZYN Ultra and new low-nicotine (1.5 mg, 8 mg) variants.
- Execute the 'When it Clicks' marketing campaign to boost ZYN brand equity.
- Launch DELIA, LEVIA, VEEV One Plus, and BONDS extensions across markets.
- Increase U.S. production capacity and global distribution through higher capex.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-22T16:05:37.369077+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-28T01:23:15.070317+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T10:11:35.981118+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T10:11:35.978261+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.