Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Smoke-free growth drives higher guidance despite regulatory risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: continued smoke-free adoption, pricing and capacity investment are supporting growth and margin expansion. The evidence is not one-sided, because regulatory changes, product-approval timing, ZYN normalization, currency and declining combustible volumes could limit the pace or durability of that growth.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$292.18B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.91
Consensus $1.86
EPS surprise
+2.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.14B
Consensus $10.32B
Revenue surprise
-1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-8.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.1%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PM FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PM fall 8.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in PM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for PM after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from maintaining guidance to raising full-year adjusted diluted EPS growth guidance. The current analysis also highlights continued smoke-free expansion, higher capacity investment and a clearer focus on EU excise proposals and the US FDA approval timeline for Illuma.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS growth guidance to 13%-15%, or 11.5%-13.5% on a currency-neutral basis.
Key takeaways
- Smoke-free products remained the main growth engine, led by IQOS and ZYN.
- Full-year adjusted diluted EPS growth guidance was raised to 13%-15%.
- Combustible volumes are expected to decline about 2% year over year, while pricing and cost efficiencies support margins.
- Capacity investment and regulatory milestones remain central to the outlook.
Management priorities
- Expand IQOS, ZYN and VEEV across additional markets
- Increase ZYN production capacity and support new-territory launches
- Maintain gross-margin expansion through pricing discipline and cost efficiencies
- Continue deleveraging while targeting operating cash flow of about $11.5 billion in 2026
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$187.46Previous close
$99Low
$158.92Average
$225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $187.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Faham Baig | $192 | $190.23 | +2.4% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $225 | $200.17 | +20.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +17.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +9.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +14.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +14.7% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +15.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -2.9% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | +6.7% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -10.4% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | +1.4% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | +4.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +9.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -3.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +9.4% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | +6.7% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -4.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -6.6% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -4.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -0.8% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -3.4% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -17.3% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -24.3% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -29.6% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -28.0% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -22.7% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -25.9% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -26.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -38.7% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -36.0% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -37.1% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -39.7% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -41.3% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -37.1% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -20.0% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -39.2% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -47.2% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -41.9% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -37.6% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -40.3% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -44.0% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -41.3% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -42.9% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Historical context
All PM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the PM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T10:40:43.606205+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T10:40:43.603339+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.