Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
PM Q1: Smoke-Free Growth Supports Guidance, Risks Remain
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: smoke-free adoption, pricing, scale, and product launches are supporting growth and margins, while ZYN supply constraints, regulation, mix, and macro uncertainty remain key tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$313.58B market cap
70quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.61
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $9.08B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.4%
Event window
SPY move
+1.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.9%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PM FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PM's +2.4% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in PM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for PM after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management maintained full-year guidance while raising the 2025 US ZYN shipment outlook to 800-840 million cans. The quarter also highlighted continued investment in smoke-free products, US capacity, distribution, and cost savings.
Guidance delta
Maintained; full-year EPS guidance was reaffirmed, with targeted growth of 10.5%-12.5% and a target of $7.36-$7.49.
Key takeaways
- Smoke-free products generated 20% organic net revenue growth and lifted gross margin above 70%.
- IQOS delivered approximately 9.4% IMS growth despite EU flavor-ban annualization.
- ZYN shipments grew 53% year over year, and the US shipment outlook was raised to 800-840 million cans for 2025.
- Organic margin expanded 340 basis points, supported by pricing, scale, and product mix.
Management priorities
- Roll out ILUMA i and new Terea, Levia, and Delia consumables
- Expand ZYN production capacity in Kentucky and Colorado
- Advance the multi-category growth strategy across Europe and emerging markets
- Pursue $2 billion in cost savings by 2026
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$201.19Current
$99Low
$158.92Average
$225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $201.19. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Faham Baig | $192 | $190.23 | -4.6% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $225 | $200.17 | +11.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +9.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +1.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +6.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +6.9% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +7.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -9.5% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | -0.6% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -16.5% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | -5.6% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | -3.1% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +1.9% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -9.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +1.9% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | -0.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -10.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -13.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -10.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -7.6% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -10.0% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -23.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -29.4% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -34.4% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -32.9% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -27.9% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -30.9% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -31.4% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -42.8% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -40.4% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -41.3% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -43.8% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -45.3% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -41.3% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -25.4% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -43.3% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -50.8% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -45.8% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -41.8% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -44.3% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -47.8% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -45.3% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -46.8% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Historical context
All PM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
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| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.2% | +3.7% | PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.4% | +2.4% | Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +27.8% | +7.5% | Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-09T00:03:27.736600+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T13:10:52.630026+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T13:10:52.627039+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.