Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy25 ratings
Bullish1768.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish14.0%
Philip Morris International Inc. · PM · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Philip Morris raises guidance as IQOS and ZYN drive Q3 growth
The supplied analysis supports the view that resilient demand and earnings growth can underpin Philip Morris's outlook: smoke-free products drove Q3 growth, pricing and productivity supported margins, and management raised full-year guidance. The counterpoints are supply constraints, regulation, currency and litigation risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$311.57B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.91
Consensus $1.82
EPS surprise
+4.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.91B
Consensus $9.68B
Revenue surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.4%
Up to 20 sessions
PMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PM FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PM rise 10.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in PM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PM after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the supplied prior-quarter analysis, the Q3 update shows faster reported growth, continued smoke-free momentum, additional cost savings and a further full-year guidance raise. Management also provided new detail on VEEV product-level profitability, the Vectura sale and planned IQOS and ZYN expansion.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year guidance for volume to +2%–+3%, organic net revenue to +9.5%, operating income to +14%–+14.5%, and currency-neutral EPS to +14%–+15%.
Key takeaways
- Q3 organic revenue grew 11.6%, adjusted operating income rose 13.8%, and currency-neutral EPS increased 18%.
- IQOS and ZYN volumes accelerated; U.S. ZYN volume increased 40% year over year despite capacity constraints.
- The company reported $180 million of Q3 cost-efficiency savings and remains on track for its $2 billion 2026 target.
- Management highlighted further IQOS ILUMA rollout, ZYN capacity expansion and VEEV development.
Management priorities
- Expand IQOS ILUMA i into additional European markets and continue VEEV expansion.
- Increase ZYN capacity toward approximately 900 million cans in 2025, including a new Colorado facility.
- Continue productivity initiatives while advancing smoke-free market expansion and sustainability targets.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$199.9Current
$99Low
$158.92Average
$225High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 20, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 26, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2024 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2024 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Feb 13, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 1, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 25, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2018 |
| SBG Securities | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 11, 2017 |
| CLSA | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 14, 2016 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 8, 2016 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Reduce | Upgrade | Nov 30, 2015 |
| FirstEnergy Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 21, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $199.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Faham Baig | $192 | $190.23 | -4.0% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $225 | $200.17 | +12.6% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $191.12 | +10.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $194.3 | +2.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Needham | Gerald Pascarelli | $215 | $194.3 | +7.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $194.3 | +7.6% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $188.04 | +8.1% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $182 | $180.7 | -9.0% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $173.66 | +0.1% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $157.11 | -16.0% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $190 | $156.58 | -5.0% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $195 | $158.68 | -2.5% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $183.4 | +2.6% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181.5 | $180.24 | -9.2% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $205 | $182.81 | +2.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $182.81 | +0.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Edward Mundy | $180 | $173.62 | -10.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Serotta | $175 | $152 | -12.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $152 | -10.0% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $186 | $150.17 | -7.0% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Faham Baig | $181 | $180.37 | -9.5% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $155 | $131.57 | -22.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $142 | $131.41 | -29.0% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Simon Hales | $132 | $118.91 | -34.0% | Oct 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Damian McNeela | $135 | $121.4 | -32.5% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Gaurav Jain | $145 | $125.81 | -27.5% | Sep 9, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $139 | $125.71 | -30.5% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $138 | $125.71 | -31.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $110.24 | -42.5% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $109.56 | -40.0% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bonnie Herzog | $118 | $94.06 | -41.0% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $113 | $90.27 | -43.5% | Oct 3, 2023 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $110 | $98.77 | -45.0% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $118 | $97.36 | -41.0% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Wissink | $150 | $95.08 | -25.0% | May 4, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $114 | $98.16 | -43.0% | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $90.6 | -50.5% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brian Mullan | $109 | $98.16 | -45.5% | May 6, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lisa Lewandowski | $117 | $102.69 | -41.5% | Apr 24, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $112 | $103.53 | -44.0% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $105 | $93.94 | -47.5% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| UBS | Nik Oliver | $110 | $111.61 | -45.0% | Feb 21, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Callum Elliott | $107 | $91.94 | -46.5% | Jun 1, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhilip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T04:50:41.597106+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T04:50:41.594426+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.