Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
PCA beats Q3 expectations as Greif synergies offset cost pressure
PCA’s Q3 results support a constructive operating case: pricing, mix, Greif synergies and capacity projects are supporting earnings. The case is not unqualified, because input costs, outage expenses, project inflation and slightly lower Q4 volumes could limit near-term margin and earnings progression.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$21.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.04
Consensus $2.93
EPS surprise
+3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.60B
Consensus $2.61B
Revenue surprise
-0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PKG FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PKG rise 4.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in PKG's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PKG after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, Q3 showed stronger realized price and mix benefits and an earlier Greif earnings contribution, while management raised the focus on outage costs and capital-project inflation. The Q4 outlook now reflects higher prices but slightly lower volumes and a larger maintenance-outage burden.
Guidance delta
Q4 EPS guidance of $2.81 implies flat-to-slightly-lower earnings despite price improvements and slightly lower expected volumes.
Key takeaways
- Q3 performance benefited from price and mix improvements and an early contribution from the Greif acquisition.
- Greif integration synergies are ahead of target, with annual benefits anticipated at $40–$50 million.
- Higher labor, freight, recycled-fiber, power and outage costs tempered profit growth.
- Management expects solid Q4 inventory positioning while planning further mill, winder and box-plant upgrades.
- The capex plan is focused on turbines, winders and other capacity and reliability projects.
Management priorities
- Continue integrating and optimizing Greif assets.
- Complete the Newark, Ohio box plant and commission the Jackson duplicate winder.
- Upgrade mill equipment, including Counce machine #2.
- Install gas turbines at the Jackson, DeRidder and Riverville mills.
- Position inventory for seasonal Q4 demand.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$248.92Current
$147Low
$248.13Average
$312High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Dec 7, 2020 | |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2016 |
| Dundee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $248.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $289 | $228.54 | +16.1% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $256.31 | +17.3% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $257.9 | +9.3% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $249.92 | +10.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $256.43 | +25.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $271 | $238.36 | +8.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $224.46 | -1.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $251 | $217.99 | +0.8% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $203.17 | -0.4% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $218.06 | +2.8% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $232 | $212.08 | -6.8% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $245 | $212.87 | -1.6% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $258 | $212.87 | +3.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $213.41 | +4.5% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $207.72 | +7.3% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $220.02 | +8.5% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $216.65 | -5.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $211.13 | +9.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $233 | $211.13 | -6.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $230 | $213.26 | -7.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $209.65 | -9.6% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $264 | $209.02 | +6.1% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $212.93 | -10.8% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $213.2 | -9.2% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $212.08 | +5.3% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $280 | $229.22 | +12.5% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $252 | $228.65 | +1.2% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $253 | $228.65 | +1.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $235 | $213.37 | -5.6% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $191 | $173.42 | -23.3% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Charlie Muir-Sands | $182 | $186.28 | -26.9% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $125 | $136.77 | -49.8% | Feb 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $112.88 | -38.9% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.33 | -42.6% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.93 | -40.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $136.71 | -38.1% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $139.68 | -42.2% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $162.62 | -34.9% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White | $158 | $162.29 | -36.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on PKG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPackaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…
Historical context
All PKG earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +7.0% | +3.4% | Tesla Q3: FSD, Robotaxi and Megapack momentum drive expansion |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- PNFPFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+2.7% EPS+2.3% move
- SCCOFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+6.4% EPS-2.1% move
- URIFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+11.3% EPS+3.9% move
- LUVFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+15.6% EPS+4.3% move
- RSFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026+17.4% EPS-0.7% move
- CACIFY2027 Q1 · October 21, 2026+16.6% EPS-1.5% move
Missed on EPS
- ROLFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-1.4% EPS+5.6% move
- GGGFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-2.5% EPS-16.6% move
- GL-PDFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-1.2% EPS— move
- GLFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-1.2% EPS-3.8% move
- METAFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-41.4% EPS+0.5% move
- LVSFY2026 Q3 · October 21, 2026-20.9% EPS-1.7% move
Get the PKG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-22T17:10:09.221654+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-22T01:23:13.354406+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-22T21:30:44.032857+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-22T21:30:44.030094+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.