Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold24 ratings
Bullish937.5%
Neutral1354.2%
Bearish28.3%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Packaging Corporation of America · PKG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
PCA pairs record demand with higher costs and heavy capex
The supplied evidence supports a measured version of the growth hypothesis for PCA: resilient corrugated demand, price increases, capacity additions and efficiency projects provide support, while inflation, outages and execution around new plants constrain confidence.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$22.03B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.51
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.13B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-9.8%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-9.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.0%
Up to 20 sessions
PKGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PKG FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PKG's -9.8% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in PKG's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PKG after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis emphasizes record Q4 sales and shipments, implemented linerboard and medium price increases, a larger 2025 capital program, and a shift away from RISI-indexed pricing. It also highlights first-quarter guidance of $2.21 per share and greater visibility into outage and input-cost risks.
Guidance delta
Management provided first-quarter 2025 earnings guidance of $2.21 per share while maintaining a constructive operating outlook; the supplied analysis does not quantify a comparable guidance change.
Key takeaways
- Record fourth-quarter sales and shipments point to resilient packaging demand.
- January price increases and lighter-weight grades support the pricing and efficiency case.
- Higher input costs, outages and substantial 2025 capital spending remain the key execution risks.
Management priorities
- Ramp Glendale, Arizona and Newark, Ohio box plants.
- Continue mill reconfiguration, conversion projects and capacity investments.
- Move customers from RISI-indexed contracts toward bespoke pricing agreements.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$247.29Current
$147Low
$250.4Average
$312High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 29, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Dec 7, 2020 | |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 2, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 26, 2019 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 26, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 12, 2018 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2016 |
| Dundee | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2016 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $247.29. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $294 | $248.2 | +18.9% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $289 | $228.54 | +16.9% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $256.31 | +18.1% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $272 | $257.9 | +10.0% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $249.92 | +10.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $256.43 | +26.2% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $271 | $238.36 | +9.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $224.46 | -0.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $251 | $217.99 | +1.5% | May 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $203.17 | +0.3% | May 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $218.06 | +3.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $232 | $212.08 | -6.2% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $245 | $212.87 | -0.9% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $258 | $212.87 | +4.3% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $213.41 | +5.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $207.72 | +8.0% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $220.02 | +9.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $216.65 | -5.0% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $211.13 | +10.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $233 | $211.13 | -5.8% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $230 | $213.26 | -7.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $209.65 | -9.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $264 | $209.02 | +6.8% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $212.93 | -10.2% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $213.2 | -8.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $212.08 | +5.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $280 | $229.22 | +13.2% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $252 | $228.65 | +1.9% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $253 | $228.65 | +2.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $235 | $213.37 | -5.0% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $191 | $173.42 | -22.8% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Charlie Muir-Sands | $182 | $186.28 | -26.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $125 | $136.77 | -49.5% | Feb 28, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $112.88 | -38.5% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.33 | -42.2% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $136.93 | -40.6% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $154 | $136.71 | -37.7% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $139.68 | -41.8% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $162.62 | -34.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Kyle White | $158 | $162.29 | -36.1% | Apr 26, 2022 |
Track every rating change on PKG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPackaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging.…
Historical context
All PKG earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.4% | -0.2% | Deckers raises FY2027 outlook as HOKA and UGG drive growth |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.3% | +6.2% | Tractor Supply Q3: Pet and Digital Momentum Supports Margin Plan |
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -4.5% | +5.8% | PulteGroup Holds Guidance as Buyer Traffic Slows |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the PKG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-14T00:00:50.895859+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T12:50:43.318453+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T12:50:43.315476+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.