The Progressive Corporation · PGR · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

Progressive: Record Policy Growth, Efficiency Gains and Weather Risks

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating case based on record policy additions, strong Personal Lines demand, media efficiency and technology-enabled cost improvements. That case remains conditional on maintaining pricing discipline, retention and claims performance through weather and competitive pressures.

Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services $132.53B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.58 Consensus $3.69
EPS surprise -3.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $19.46B Consensus $19.02B
Revenue surprise +2.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.1% Event window
SPY move -0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +0.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.3% Up to 20 sessions
PGRSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about PGR FY2024 Q3

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Why did PGR fall 0.1% after missing EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in PGR's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PGR after FY2024 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds record policy growth, the highest-ever third-quarter media spend, AI tools for acquisition and claims efficiency, and ongoing Property risk adjustment as the main developments versus the prior quarter.

Guidance delta

Maintained; no major guidance change was identified in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Record policy additions were attributed to high media spend and strong Personal Lines demand.
  • Management emphasized AI and technology to improve acquisition and claims efficiency.
  • Property risk is being adjusted by geography and other risk-sharing measures.
  • Competitive pricing, retention, claims severity and severe weather remain important watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Maintain and optimize media spend with smart segmentation.
  • Expand the 5.0 product model into more premium coverage.
  • Integrate AI and automation in claims and customer service.
  • De-risk the Property portfolio through geographic mix and cost-sharing measures.
  • Drive bundled Home & Auto growth and strengthen agent compensation structures.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PGR REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $18B Q2 '24 actual $18B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $19B Q3 '24 actual $19B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $20B Q2 '25 actual $20B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $22B Q3 '25 actual $21B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $20B Q4 '25 actual $20B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $23B Q1 '26 actual $24B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $19B Q2 '26 actual $21B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $23B Q3 '26 actual $22B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $20B Q1 '27 estimate $24B Q2 '27 estimate $22B Q3 '27 estimate $24B
Show 2 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold42 ratings
Bullish1638.1%
Neutral2252.4%
Bearish49.5%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$228.07Current
$85Low
$214.03Average
$309High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 15, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 7, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 5, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 16, 2026
Show 37 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $228.07. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$238$217.67 +4.4%Oct 19, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$216$218.46 -5.3%Oct 15, 2026
Wells FargoElyse Greenspan$196$213.46 -14.1%Oct 15, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$216$212.05 -5.3%Oct 7, 2026
Raymond JamesGregory Peters$245$213.48 +7.4%Sep 21, 2026
See 107 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications.…

Historical context

All PGR earnings
-9.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+2.2%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026-5.8%FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Financial Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +8.2% First Citizens posts strong Q3, raises Q4 outlook as loans and deposits grow
FCNCN First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of 6.625% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series E FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +0.2% First Citizens raises 2026 outlook after strong Q3 growth
FCNCO First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +1.0% First Citizens raises guidance after strong Q3 loan and deposit growth
FCNCP First Citizens BancShares, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +19.9% +1.0% First Citizens reports strong Q3 and raises 2026 guidance
AXP American Express Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +4.0% -3.7% American Express raises EPS outlook as premium growth and AI expand
BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -7.7% +3.0% Bradesco: Loan growth and capital strength offset credit risks

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Beat on EPS

Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-10-17T05:10:49.140638+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T20:00:47.926412+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T20:00:47.923682+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.