Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated · PEG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

PSEG raises 2026 guidance as capex and nuclear execution support growth

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional outlook: raised guidance, regulated rate-base investment, nuclear performance, and large-load demand provide support, while regulation, financing costs, market prices, and execution constrain visibility.

Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities $33.73B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.72 Consensus $0.71
EPS surprise +1.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.92B Consensus $2.68B
Revenue surprise +8.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.1% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +0.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.2% Up to 20 sessions
PEGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from a stable capex outlook and a raised prior-period outlook to increasing capex, raised 2026 guidance, and a reaffirmed 6%-8% long-term CAGR target. The current analysis also highlights 95% hedging of 2026 generation output and a five-year LIPA contract extension through 2030.

Guidance delta

Management raised 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $4.28-$4.40 per share and reaffirmed a 6%-8% long-term CAGR target through 2030.

Key takeaways

  • Management raised 2026 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $4.28-$4.40 per share.
  • The company plans $22.5-$25.5 billion of regulated capital spending from 2026 through 2030 without equity issuance.
  • Nuclear operations, rate-base expansion, and data-center demand remain central growth drivers.
  • Regulatory and legislative outcomes, interest rates, commodity prices, and severe weather remain key risks.

Management priorities

  • Execute the five-year regulated capital investment plan.
  • Advance natural-gas and nuclear procurement initiatives and related regulatory engagement.
  • Continue solar, battery-storage, and energy-efficiency projects.
  • Maintain nuclear operating performance and pursue SMR site-readiness opportunities.
  • Extend strategic partnerships, including the LIPA relationship.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PEG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1.31 Q1 '24 actual $1.31, match Q2 '24 estimate $0.63 Q2 '24 actual $0.63, match Q3 '24 estimate $0.87 Q3 '24 actual $0.90, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.70 Q2 '25 actual $0.77, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1.02 Q3 '25 actual $1.13, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.71 Q4 '25 actual $0.72, match Q1 '26 estimate $1.44 Q1 '26 actual $1.55, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.79 Q2 '26 actual $0.86, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.17 Q4 '26 estimate $0.84 Q1 '27 estimate $1.60
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1548.4%
Neutral1548.4%
Bearish13.2%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$67.34Current
$70Low
$86.33Average
$98High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 18, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 13, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 5, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 5, 2026
Jefferies Hold HoldMaintainJul 20, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainApr 13, 2026
Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral BuyDowngradeMar 13, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainMar 12, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform In LineUpgradeMar 5, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainMar 5, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainDec 17, 2025
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainNov 5, 2025
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainMay 1, 2025
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainMar 3, 2025
Scotiabank Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainDec 12, 2024
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 15, 2024
Mizuho Buy BuyMaintainMay 23, 2024
Seaport Global Neutral BuyDowngradeJun 20, 2023
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeNov 17, 2022
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 4, 2022
Credit Suisse Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 4, 2022
Keybanc Sector Weight OverweightDowngradeJan 13, 2022
Vertical Research Buy HoldUpgradeSep 30, 2021
Deutsche Bank Hold BuyDowngradeFeb 28, 2019
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainOct 17, 2018
Argus Buy BuyMaintainOct 17, 2018
Macquarie Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2018
Bank of America Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 16, 2018
Tudor Pickering Hold HoldMaintainDec 5, 2012
ISI Group Hold SellUpgradeNov 9, 2012
FBR Capital Underperform Market PerformDowngradeAug 27, 2012
Bank oferica Neutral NeutralMaintainMar 12, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $67.34. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$86$66.9 +27.7%Sep 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$88$70.16 +30.7%Sep 18, 2026
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$91$74.19 +35.1%Aug 21, 2026
Truist FinancialRichard Sunderland$84$75.98 +24.7%Aug 13, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$93$78.84 +38.1%Jul 22, 2026
JefferiesPaul Zimbardo$78$78.64 +15.8%Jul 20, 2026
RBC CapitalStephen D'Ambrisi$81$80.27 +20.3%Jul 1, 2026
Truist FinancialRichard Sunderland$88$76.44 +30.7%May 18, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$91$80.74 +35.1%Apr 20, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$89$82.05 +32.2%Apr 14, 2026
ScotiabankAndrew Weisel$92$85.85 +36.6%Feb 26, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$90$85.36 +33.7%Feb 20, 2026
BTIGAlex Kania$94$82 +39.6%Jan 30, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$81$79.77 +20.3%Jan 22, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$92$79.28 +36.6%Jan 21, 2026
Wells FargoShahriar Pourreza$92$79.42 +36.6%Jan 20, 2026
UBSWilliam Appicelli$98$79.93 +45.5%Dec 17, 2025
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$89$80.4 +32.2%Dec 16, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$107$81.51 +58.9%Nov 20, 2025
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$90$79.86 +33.7%Nov 6, 2025
New StreetAnalyst unavailable$83$81.36 +23.3%Nov 4, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$88$83.45 +30.7%Oct 27, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$109$83.53 +61.9%Oct 22, 2025
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$98$83.12 +45.5%Oct 21, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$87$83.12 +29.2%Oct 21, 2025
BarclaysNicholas Campanella$89$84.83 +32.2%Oct 21, 2025
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$85$84.75 +26.2%Oct 20, 2025
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$83$81.84 +23.3%Oct 6, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$103$80.88 +53.0%Sep 25, 2025
UBSWilliam Appicelli$103$87.58 +53.0%Jul 25, 2025
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$100$82.1 +48.5%Jun 18, 2025
BMO CapitalJames Thalacker$89$90.39 +32.2%Oct 21, 2024
JefferiesPaul Zimbardo$85$83.31 +26.2%Sep 12, 2024
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$83$81.08 +23.3%Aug 23, 2024
Evercore ISIGreg Gordon$80$78 +18.8%Jul 30, 2024
GuggenheimShahriar Pourreza$82$73.28 +21.8%Jun 17, 2024
Morgan StanleyDavid Arcaro$78$74.83 +15.8%May 28, 2024
Mizuho SecuritiesPaul Fremont$80$73.96 +18.8%May 23, 2024
BMO CapitalJames Thalacker$69$69.15 +2.5%May 1, 2024
J.P. MorganJeremy Tonet$70$62.6 +4.0%Dec 4, 2023
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PSEG) is an energy provider primarily operating through its subsidiaries in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. The company's business activities are structured into two primary segments: PSE&G and PSEG Power. The PSE&G division is responsible for transmitting electricity and distributing both electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment also commits resources to solar power generation projects and various energy efficiency initiatives, as well as offering appliance service and repair.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T00:06:06.074991+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T00:06:06.072103+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.