Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold45 ratings
Bullish1533.3%
Neutral2760.0%
Bearish36.7%
PACCAR Inc · PCAR · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
PACCAR: Parts strength offsets tariff pressure as rebate approaches
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: PACCAR's parts business, investment program, and expected tariff relief provide support, while tariff execution, demand conditions, regulation, and inventory remain important tests.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$57.73B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.12
Consensus $1.15
EPS surprise
-2.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.67B
Consensus $6.01B
Revenue surprise
+11.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.9%
Up to 20 sessions
PCARSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PCAR FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PCAR rise 2.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in PCAR's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PCAR after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the Section 232 rebate now has a stated November 1 start and is expected to offset tariff costs through Q4 and into 2026. PACCAR also provided a more specific Q4 margin outlook, while maintaining its demand outlook and investment program.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained. Management projected Q4 gross margin around 12% after the peak tariff period and outlined capital expenditures of $750–$775 million for this year and $725–$775 million next year.
Key takeaways
- Q3 performance was robust despite tariff headwinds, with record PACCAR Parts revenue and strong margin.
- Management expects the Section 232 rebate to reduce costs beginning November 1 and support margins through Q4 and into 2026.
- The company remains optimistic about Class 8 truck demand across North America, Europe, and South America through 2026.
- Investment continues in distribution, engine remanufacturing, factory capacity, alternative powertrains, and driver-assistance technology.
Management priorities
- Expand PACCAR Parts distribution, including a new Calgary center.
- Launch the engine-remanufacturing center in Columbus, Mississippi.
- Open an additional used-truck center in Warsaw, Poland.
- Continue factory, clean-diesel, alternative-powertrain, and ADAS investments.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$109.68Current
$42.22Low
$96.17Average
$150High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 4, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 22, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 16, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 2, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Apr 27, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 22, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | May 12, 2020 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 14, 2019 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2019 |
| OTR Global | Negative | Mixed | Downgrade | Oct 9, 2019 |
| Loop Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 6, 2019 |
| Baird | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 7, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 24, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2018 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 29, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 5, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 29, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2016 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 30, 2016 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2014 |
| McAdams Wright Ragen | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Nov 1, 2013 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2013 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 19, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $109.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Nick Housden | $150 | $121.88 | +36.8% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $124.51 | +14.0% | Sep 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $136.06 | +8.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $148 | $134.64 | +34.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $121.24 | +19.4% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $139 | $112.87 | +26.7% | May 11, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $126 | $119.57 | +14.9% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Jerry Revich | $125 | $119.61 | +14.0% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $126.61 | -0.6% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $138 | $123.02 | +25.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Jerry Revich | $119 | $123.56 | +8.5% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $125 | $110.1 | +14.0% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $96.55 | -3.4% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $108 | $100.84 | -1.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $99.85 | -6.1% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $99.48 | -17.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $90 | $99.46 | -17.9% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $100.63 | -21.6% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $97 | $96.68 | -11.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $114 | $98.38 | +3.9% | Aug 19, 2025 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $100 | $101 | -8.8% | Jul 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $108 | $92.36 | -1.5% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $100.21 | +9.4% | Mar 18, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | David Raso | $129 | $92.86 | +17.6% | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jerry Revich | $121 | $104.79 | +10.3% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Kyle Menges | $110 | $104.79 | +0.3% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $103 | $102.8 | -6.1% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $109 | $95.3 | -0.6% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $147 | $117.71 | +34.0% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Nick Housden | $123 | $123.4 | +12.1% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $136 | $118.33 | +24.0% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jamie Cook | $117 | $115.97 | +6.7% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $115 | $87.56 | +4.9% | Jul 17, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $43.26 | $48.68 | -60.6% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $44.44 | $48.58 | -59.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $46.67 | $44.92 | -57.5% | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $53.33 | $43.8 | -51.4% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60.44 | $45.43 | -44.9% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| BNP Paribas | Miguel Borrega | $44.44 | $46.34 | -59.5% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $46.22 | $39.02 | -57.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $39.02 | -67.2% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $44.44 | $38.65 | -59.5% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Felix Boeschen | $42.22 | $37.35 | -61.5% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $33.33 | $35.75 | -69.6% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $50.22 | $37.25 | -54.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $46.67 | $37.35 | -57.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Jamie Cook | $50.67 | $41.72 | -53.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Felix Boeschen | $48 | $41.57 | -56.2% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $41.78 | $41.57 | -61.9% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Chad Dillard | $43.56 | $37.32 | -60.3% | Dec 22, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $42.22 | $39.15 | -61.5% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Timothy Thein | $44.44 | $36.24 | -59.5% | Oct 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PCAR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPACCAR Inc is a global leader specializing in the design, production, and distribution of commercial trucks, covering light, medium, and heavy-duty classes. Its market reach extends across the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and other international territories. The company's operations are divided into three principal segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck division focuses on engineering, manufacturing, and supplying vehicles tailored for both long-distance highway travel and challenging off-highway applications, primarily for hauling commercial and consumer goods. These vehicles are sold worldwide through an expansive network of independent dealerships, prominently featuring the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. The Parts segment is dedicated to supplying aftermarket components for its trucks and associated commercial vehicles.…
Historical context
All PCAR earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the PCAR recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T04:20:43.223600+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T04:20:43.220902+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.