Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold21 ratings
Bullish1047.6%
Neutral838.1%
Bearish314.3%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · PBR · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Petrobras pairs production growth with capital discipline, faces oil-price risk
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: production expansion, pre-salt assets, export diversification, and renewable-fuel projects can support growth, while capital discipline and cash generation provide resilience. The thesis remains conditional on oil prices, platform execution, and disciplined allocation.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$131.27B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.72
Consensus $0.57
EPS surprise
+26.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$23.61B
Consensus $23.09B
Revenue surprise
+2.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.2%
Event window
SPY move
-1.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+18.5%
Up to 20 sessions
PBRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PBR FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PBR rise 5.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in PBR's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PBR after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the emphasis toward a larger 2026–2027 platform ramp-up, renewable-fuel commissioning, reserve additions, and export diversification. Compared with the prior analysis, it adds greater focus on platform P-79 execution, green fuels, and the absence of hedging while retaining a confident tone and maintained guidance.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management kept its strategic focus on production growth, disciplined capital allocation, and downstream renewable-fuel projects.
Key takeaways
- Production growth and platform ramp-ups remain central to the operating case.
- Management emphasized capital discipline while expanding pre-salt and renewable-fuel projects.
- Cash generation and dividends were supported despite a lower Brent-price environment.
- The main counterweights are oil-price volatility, execution risk, and capital-allocation choices.
Management priorities
- Accelerate P-78 and P-79 ramp-ups and add platforms in 2026–2027.
- Continue pre-salt development and pursue new discoveries.
- Commission sustainable aviation fuel and green-diesel plants.
- Maintain capital discipline under the 2026–2030 strategic plan.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$20.75Current
$11Low
$17.94Average
$24High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Aug 26, 2024 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Bradesco Corretora | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | May 18, 2020 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2018 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 4, 2018 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 17, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 24, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2014 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2013 |
| BTG Pactual | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $20.74. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $20.76 | +10.9% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $18.25 | -3.6% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Banco Santander | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $19.83 | +15.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Vicente Neto | $19 | $20.54 | -8.4% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $22 | $20.33 | +6.0% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $15.11 | -18.1% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| BTG Pactual | Gustavo Cunha | $15 | $12.61 | -27.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $14.6 | $12.69 | -29.6% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $14.4 | $12.33 | -30.6% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal | $15.3 | $12.05 | -26.2% | May 15, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.96 | -27.7% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $13 | $13.62 | -37.3% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bruno Montanari | $20 | $14.4 | -3.6% | Aug 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $14 | $15.56 | -32.5% | May 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $17.7 | $16.69 | -14.7% | May 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Liyanna Yang | $18 | $14.95 | -13.2% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bruno Amorim | $18.1 | $14.87 | -12.8% | Jun 21, 2023 |
| Banco Santander | Christian Audi | $11 | $8.23 | -47.0% | May 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PBR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationBrazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations are organized into four primary business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation, and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses. Overall, Petrobras’s activities span the entire hydrocarbon value chain. This includes the search for and extraction of crude oil from various sources—onshore, offshore, and unconventional formations like shale—along with its subsequent refining, processing, trading, and distribution. The company also manages natural gas, other liquid hydrocarbons, and refined petroleum products. Specifically, the Exploration and Production division focuses on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to supply the company's domestic refineries.…
Historical context
All PBR earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the PBR recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T16:10:59.396704+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T16:10:59.393965+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.