O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · ORLY · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

O'Reilly’s professional growth supports expansion, while DIY and costs bear watching

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: professional-service demand, vehicle complexity, and store expansion provide growth support, while DIY softness and rising operating costs are the key offsets.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $71.69B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.71 Consensus $0.73
EPS surprise -2.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.41B Consensus $4.39B
Revenue surprise +0.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -4.0% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move -2.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +1.9% Up to 20 sessions
ORLYSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The company entered 2026 with a higher investment plan: capital expenditures are guided to $1.3–$1.4 billion, supporting 225–235 net new stores, distribution expansion, inventory investment, and technology initiatives. It also highlighted its first Canadian greenfield store and a transition in Mexico toward independent store sales.

Guidance delta

Management’s 2026 outlook calls for revenue of $18.7–$19.0 billion, comparable-store sales growth of 3%–5%, EPS of $3.10–$3.20, gross margin of 51.5%–52%, and capital expenditures of $1.3–$1.4 billion.

Key takeaways

  • FY2025 sales reached $17.8 billion, with comparable-store sales up 4.7%, the high end of revised guidance.
  • The professional business delivered more than 10% comparable-store sales growth, while DIY was flat to low single-digit growth.
  • O'Reilly plans 225–235 net new stores in 2026 and is increasing investment in distribution, inventory, and technology.

Management priorities

  • Accelerate new-store expansion in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
  • Complete and staff the Virginia distribution center and prepare the Fort Worth distribution center.
  • Increase per-store inventory and invest in technology and operational efficiency.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ORLY REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $4B Q1 '24 actual $4B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $4B Q2 '24 actual $4B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $4B Q3 '24 actual $4B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $5B Q2 '25 actual $5B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $5B Q3 '25 actual $5B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4B Q4 '25 actual $4B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $4B Q1 '26 actual $5B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $5B Q2 '26 actual $5B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $5B Q4 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '27 estimate $5B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1838.3%
Bearish12.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$86.07Current
$91Low
$353.59Average
$1,325High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 18, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 3, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 31, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 8, 2026
Show 42 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $86.07. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Roth CapitalScott Stember$111$88.48 +29.0%Jul 31, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$106$88.47 +23.2%Jul 31, 2026
Raymond JamesBobby Griffin$110$88.86 +27.8%Jul 31, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$100$87.36 +16.2%Jul 31, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$100$86.11 +16.2%Jul 24, 2026
See 53 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehensive inventory includes both new and reconditioned vehicle hard parts and essential maintenance items. This expansive selection covers critical components such as alternators, batteries, brake system parts, belts, chassis and driveline components, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control systems, and water pumps. Additionally, they supply consumables like antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, various fluids, lighting solutions, oil, and wiper blades. Their accessory range features items like floor mats, seat covers, and specific truck enhancements. Beyond just parts, O'Reilly's outlets also stock auto body paint and related materials, a wide array of automotive tools, and specialized equipment catering to professional service providers.…

Historical context

All ORLY earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T00:36:09.054304+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T00:36:09.051110+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.