Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2859.6%
Neutral1838.3%
Bearish12.1%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · ORLY · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
O’Reilly: Cautious Sales Outlook, Heavier Investment Plan
The transcript supports a mixed view: management sees durable demand from an aging vehicle fleet, professional-segment gains, proprietary brands, and better distribution, but near-term sales guidance was reduced while investment and execution demands rise.
Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical
$70.12B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $9.73
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.04B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.9%
Up to 20 sessions
ORLYSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ORLY FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ORLY's -1.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in ORLY's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ORLY after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The outlook became more cautious on comparable-store sales, moving to 2%-4% for 2025 from the prior 3%-5% range. At the same time, the company outlined higher capital spending, more distribution investment, and a larger owned-store opening mix.
Guidance delta
Management set 2025 comparable-store-sales guidance at 2%-4%, down from the prior 3%-5% range; gross-margin guidance was 51.2%-51.7%.
Key takeaways
- Management described 2024 as solid despite industry headwinds and a one-time insurance charge.
- The 2025 outlook calls for 2%-4% comparable-store-sales growth, with modest gross-margin expansion.
- Higher 2025 capital spending is directed toward stores, distribution hubs, inventory, and automation.
Management priorities
- Open 200-210 new stores, including expansion in Mexico and the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
- Accelerate distribution-center builds and hub-store expansion.
- Increase owned-store openings, inventory availability, and distribution-center automation.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$86.01Current
$91Low
$345.73Average
$1,325High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 6, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 19, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2023 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 27, 2021 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| Atlantic Equities | Underweight | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 25, 2019 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 27, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2018 |
| MoffettNathanson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 25, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 25, 2018 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 9, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Jun 20, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 25, 2017 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2017 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2016 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 12, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 25, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 25, 2016 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2014 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2013 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 26, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 10, 2012 |
| Cabrera Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 9, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $86.01. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Zhihan Ma | $94 | $86.51 | +9.3% | Sep 29, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Stember | $111 | $88.48 | +29.1% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $88.47 | +23.2% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $110 | $88.86 | +27.9% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $87.36 | +16.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $86.11 | +16.3% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $114 | $87.72 | +32.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $85.75 | +13.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $113 | $87.28 | +31.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $96.83 | +26.7% | May 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $98.71 | +27.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $115 | $99.19 | +33.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.69 | +33.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $99.4 | +25.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $112 | $97.58 | +30.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $91.69 | +27.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $92.96 | +25.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $92.3 | +24.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $96 | $91.94 | +11.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $110 | $92.08 | +27.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Steven Shemesh | $109 | $92.3 | +26.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $92.08 | +32.5% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $92.86 | +22.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Steven Shemesh | $111 | $98.85 | +29.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $95.02 | +27.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $94.31 | +27.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $98.61 | +33.7% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $105 | $93.83 | +22.1% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Seth Sigman | $91 | $95.68 | +5.8% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $109 | $98.12 | +26.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Steven Shemesh | $110 | $98.27 | +27.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $98.27 | +40.7% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $115 | $100 | +33.7% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $101.6 | +30.2% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $120 | $103.05 | +39.5% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $103.05 | +33.7% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $104.55 | +40.7% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $1,580 | $1,352.17 | +1737.0% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $1,290 | $1,187.53 | +1399.8% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $1,325 | $1,187.53 | +1440.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Greg Melich | $1,230 | $1,138.16 | +1330.1% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Bret Jordan | $1,260 | $1,110.31 | +1364.9% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Steven Shemesh | $1,115 | $1,117.06 | +1196.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $1,204 | $1,092.91 | +1299.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $1,143 | $1,016.32 | +1228.9% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| CFRA | Garrett Nelson | $1,100 | $921.64 | +1178.9% | Oct 26, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $815 | $801.02 | +847.6% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $925 | $830.21 | +975.5% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $855 | $851.38 | +894.1% | Nov 23, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Mike Baker | $740 | $637.6 | +760.4% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $618.48 | +655.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $806 | $623.28 | +837.1% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $800 | $703.6 | +830.1% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Steven Zaccone | $720 | $665.67 | +737.1% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $700 | $701.77 | +713.9% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Nagel | $800 | $672 | +830.1% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $720 | $638.33 | +737.1% | Oct 18, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $638 | $607.38 | +641.8% | Jul 20, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Lavesh Hemnani | $496 | $548.07 | +476.7% | May 18, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationO'Reilly Automotive, Inc., along with its subsidiary companies, functions as a leading retail and wholesale provider of automotive aftermarket products, specialized tools, supplies, and accessories across the United States. The company's comprehensive inventory includes both new and reconditioned vehicle hard parts and essential maintenance items. This expansive selection covers critical components such as alternators, batteries, brake system parts, belts, chassis and driveline components, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control systems, and water pumps. Additionally, they supply consumables like antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, various fluids, lighting solutions, oil, and wiper blades. Their accessory range features items like floor mats, seat covers, and specific truck enhancements. Beyond just parts, O'Reilly's outlets also stock auto body paint and related materials, a wide array of automotive tools, and specialized equipment catering to professional service providers.…
Historical context
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-22T00:04:22.296664+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T12:40:41.071909+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T12:40:41.069225+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.