Okta, Inc. · OKTA · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Okta raises FY2026 outlook as AI-agent security gains traction

The current analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: Okta's raised FY2026 outlook, enterprise upsells, and early AI-agent security traction strengthen the growth case, while the lack of FY2027 guidance and unresolved conversion, retention, and execution questions limit visibility.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $36.26B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.82 Consensus $0.76
EPS surprise +8.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $742.0M Consensus $730.8M
Revenue surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +5.5% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +5.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.1% Up to 20 sessions
OKTASPY benchmark

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Why did OKTA rise 5.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in OKTA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for OKTA after FY2026 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Okta highlighted a dedicated Auth0 offering for AI agents, engagement with more than 100 customers representing more than $200 million of existing ARR for AI-agent security, and a per-agent pricing model. Management also raised FY2026 guidance, while continuing to withhold FY2027 guidance.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2026 guidance to 11% revenue growth, 26% non-GAAP operating margin, and 29% free cash flow margin.

Key takeaways

  • Large enterprise wins and new-product upsells supported the quarter.
  • Management positioned AI-agent security and non-human identity as emerging growth areas.
  • Go-to-market specialization and added sales capacity remain central execution priorities.
  • The company emphasized a strong Q4 while withholding FY2027 guidance.

Management priorities

  • Scale and productize AI-agent security offerings.
  • Expand sales capacity and go-to-market specialization.
  • Invest in identity governance, privileged access, and device-access products.
  • Use partners and regulated-industry relationships to accelerate adoption.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
OKTA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 estimate $0.51 Q4 '24 actual $0.63, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.54 Q1 '25 actual $0.65, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.61 Q2 '25 actual $0.72, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.85 Q2 '26 actual $0.91, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.76 Q3 '26 actual $0.82, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.85 Q4 '26 actual $0.90, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.85 Q1 '27 actual $0.91, beat Q2 '27 estimate $0.96 Q2 '27 actual $1.05, beat Q3 '27 estimate $0.93 Q4 '27 estimate $1.03 Q1 '28 estimate $1.01 Q2 '28 estimate $1.11
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish3975.0%
Neutral1223.1%
Bearish11.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$219.86Current
$45Low
$167.96Average
$283High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainSep 28, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainSep 28, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 25, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 25, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $219.86. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
ScotiabankPatrick Colville$245$197.4 +11.4%Sep 28, 2026
StephensTodd Weller$240$206.64 +9.2%Sep 25, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$230$206.64 +4.6%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$235$206.64 +6.9%Sep 25, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$240$206.64 +9.2%Sep 24, 2026
See 222 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both within the United States and globally. The company's flagship offering is the Okta Identity Cloud, a robust platform featuring a suite of integrated products and services. These include a Universal Directory, a cloud-based system designed to securely store and manage user, application, and device profiles; Single Sign-On (SSO), enabling seamless access to cloud-based or on-premises applications from multiple devices; and Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, which adds an extra layer of security for various applications and data.…

Historical context

All OKTA earnings
+28.6%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+30.1%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+11.0%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T15:00:47.457022+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T15:00:47.454029+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.