Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish1847.4%
Neutral2052.6%
Bearish00.0%
ONEOK, Inc. · OKE · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
ONEOK Raises 2026 Guidance on Strong Q1 Volumes and AI-Powered Demand Outlook
ONEOK's Q1 FY2026 results show a diversified fee-based midstream operator capitalizing on volume growth across natural gas, NGLs, and refined products. The company raised its 2026 earnings and adjusted EBITDA guidance, previously set at $8.1B adjusted EBITDA, citing higher volume expectations and market tailwinds from LNG export expansion, petrochemical NGL demand, and emerging AI-driven power demand. Revenue of $9.62B exceeded the $8.23B consensus by 16.8%, though EPS of $1.23 fell short of the $1.30 estimate by 5.4%. Capital projects remain on schedule, adding meaningful processing and pipeline capacity through 2027. The market response was muted: a -0.5% abnormal move on the report with -2.6% subsequent drift, suggesting investors weighed the EPS miss and near-term weather impacts against the raised guidance and long-term demand drivers.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$55.95B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationONEOK, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, functions as a leading energy infrastructure company within the United States. Its primary focus is the comprehensive management of natural gas, encompassing gathering, processing, storage, and transportation. These operations are structured into three distinct segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), and Natural Gas Pipelines. The company owns an extensive system of natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, predominantly situated in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions. Furthermore, ONEOK manages both federally (FERC) and state-regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, alongside crucial natural gas storage facilities. A significant component of ONEOK's business is dedicated to Natural Gas Liquids. The company handles the entire NGL value chain, from collecting, treating, and fractionating to transporting, storing, marketing, and distributing these products.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.23
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
-5.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$9.62B
Consensus $8.23B
Revenue surprise
+16.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$90Current
$57Low
$84.59Average
$110High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 17, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 7, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jan 10, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 14, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2021 |
| SMBC Nikko | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2020 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 3, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 3, 2020 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2019 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 6, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 2, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 20, 2018 |
| U.S. Capital Advisors | Buy | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 4, 2018 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 5, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 18, 2017 |
| US Capital Advisors | Hold | Overweight | Downgrade | May 18, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2016 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 25, 2015 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $90. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $93.56 | +0.0% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $93 | +5.6% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $90.67 | -2.2% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Gabe Daoud | $93 | $90.2 | +3.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90.47 | +2.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $89.32 | -1.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $89.32 | +0.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chan | $82 | $85.6 | -8.9% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $87.33 | -1.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $104 | $79.47 | +15.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $75.59 | +14.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $74.27 | -11.1% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $73.61 | +1.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $75.85 | -15.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $72 | $67 | -20.0% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $94 | $67.48 | +4.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Blum | $82 | $67.2 | -8.9% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $70.01 | -8.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $78 | $72.38 | -13.3% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $75 | $73.1 | -16.7% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $75.89 | -8.9% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $73.85 | +22.2% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $83 | $75.33 | -7.8% | Aug 14, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Holly Stewart | $92 | $81.58 | +2.2% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $133 | $102.38 | +47.8% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $89.74 | +13.3% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $105 | $95.65 | +16.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $98 | $95.39 | +8.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $111 | $91.37 | +23.3% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $97 | $92.07 | +7.8% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Spiro Dounis | $102 | $92.36 | +13.3% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $90 | $83.06 | +0.0% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $83 | $82.79 | -7.8% | Jul 30, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Sunil Sibal | $89 | $82.2 | -1.1% | Jul 30, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Sunil Sibal | $76 | $68.97 | -15.6% | Feb 8, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | $78 | $61.75 | -13.3% | Oct 2, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $64.7 | -18.9% | Dec 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $64.12 | -25.6% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $57.7 | -17.8% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.36 | -31.1% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $78 | $63.31 | -13.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $65.48 | -16.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $66.3 | -10.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $73.02 | -16.7% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Chase Mulvehill | $66 | $60.46 | -26.7% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $70 | $61.49 | -22.2% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timm Schneider | $62 | $59.7 | -31.1% | Jan 5, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jeremy Tonet | $66 | $63.02 | -26.7% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Raymond James | James Weston | $70 | $62.45 | -22.2% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Jean Ann Salisbury | $66 | $55.76 | -26.7% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Neuberger Berman | Mirek Zak | $57 | $53.19 | -36.7% | Jun 8, 2021 |
Track every rating change on OKE the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-0.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.6%
Up to 20 sessions
OKESPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
ONEOK raised its 2026 net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance, shifting from the prior quarter's maintained stance. Q1 revenue of $9.62B beat consensus by 16.8%, driven by strong volume growth across NGL, natural gas, and refined product segments. EPS of $1.23 missed the $1.30 estimate by 5.4%. The capex outlook moved from decreasing to stable, with the $2.7-$3.2B range held. Hedging remains disciplined at approximately 75% of volume, with additional hedges placed into 2027. Management also disclosed that it views the Sunbelt Connector and Western Gateway pipeline projects as mutually exclusive, expecting only one to proceed.
Guidance delta
Guidance was raised from the prior quarter's $8.1B adjusted EBITDA target for 2026. The prior quarter maintained guidance; this quarter's raise reflects Q1 volume outperformance and improved market conditions. Capex outlook shifted from decreasing to stable, with the $2.7-$3.2B range maintained.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $9.62B beat consensus by 16.8%, though EPS of $1.23 missed estimates by 5.4%.
- 2026 earnings and EBITDA guidance raised, reflecting higher volume expectations and market tailwinds.
- Capital projects on schedule: Delaware Basin expansion (110 MMcf/d) in Q3, Powder River plant (60 MMcf/d) by Q4 2026, Medford fractionator (100,000 bpd) in Q4 2026, Denver pipeline expansion mid-year.
- Hedging disciplined at approximately 75% of volume, with additional hedges placed into 2027.
- Long-term growth drivers include LNG export expansion, petrochemical NGL demand, and emerging AI and power data-center demand.
- Market reaction was muted: -0.5% abnormal move with -2.6% subsequent drift and 1.4x baseline volume.
Management priorities
- Execute capital projects on schedule: Delaware Basin, Bighorn, Powder River, Denver pipeline, and Medford fractionator
- Capture volume growth in Rocky Mountain, Mid-Continent, and Gulf Coast regions
- Maintain hedging discipline and balance-sheet strength with continued debt reduction
- Evaluate Sunbelt Connector vs Western Gateway as mutually exclusive large pipeline projects
- Target AI and power-demand projects in Texas and Oklahoma for hyperscaler partnerships
- Sustain fee-based earnings mix to reduce commodity exposure
Related earnings events
EnergySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T19:52:08.781690+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T19:52:08.779440+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.