Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy6 ratings
Bullish466.7%
Neutral116.7%
Bearish116.6%
NatWest Group plc · NWG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
NatWest raises income outlook as lending and cost savings hold up
The quarter provided evidence of resilient demand and operating leverage: lending and deposits grew, savings exceeded £100m, and management lifted full-year income guidance. The supporting case depends on sustained C&I and mortgage momentum, successful Evelyn Partners integration, and continued benefit from rates and the structural hedge; mortgage spreads, funding costs, and macro-sensitive credit remain counterweights.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$30.63B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.48
Consensus $0.44
EPS surprise
+9.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.94B
Consensus $5.80B
Revenue surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.7%
Up to 20 sessions
NWGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NWG FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NWG fall 3.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in NWG's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for NWG after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from maintained guidance to a raised full-year income outlook at the top of the stated range. The update also emphasized more than £100m of incremental savings, AI-enabled development, a £5bn structural-hedge acceleration, and progress toward completing Evelyn Partners.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year income guidance to the top end of the previously stated £17.2bn–£17.6bn range.
Key takeaways
- Loan and deposit growth remained robust, led by Commercial & Institutional lending and increased mortgage market share.
- More than £100m of additional savings and AI-enabled software development supported productivity.
- The Evelyn Partners acquisition remained on track for a Q2 close and is expected to add wealth-management assets and fee income.
- Management cited higher-for-longer rates and an expanded structural hedge as income tailwinds, while credit performance remained under review.
Management priorities
- Complete and integrate the Evelyn Partners acquisition.
- Continue cost-saving programmes and AI-driven technology investment.
- Expand the structural hedge and grow commercial, mortgage, and wealth-management franchises.
- Maintain disciplined balance-sheet management through 2028.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$15.47Current
$18.2Low
$18.2Average
$18.2High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 21, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 20, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Conviction Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Mar 18, 2021 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $15.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNP Paribas | Guy Stebbings | $18.2 | $15.83 | +17.6% | May 11, 2026 |
Track every rating change on NWG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNatWest Group plc is a leading financial institution that delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services to individual customers, businesses, corporations, and institutional clients across the United Kingdom and globally. The company's operations are divided into several key divisions: Retail Banking addresses consumer needs by providing essential banking products like current accounts, home mortgages, unsecured personal loans, and savings options, alongside extensive mobile and online banking capabilities. Commercial Banking offers bespoke banking and financing solutions, supporting entities ranging from new start-ups and small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to larger commercial and corporate organizations.…
Historical context
All NWG earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.8% | +6.8% | Cboe posts strong Q3 as options growth and new products advance |
| ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.1% | +5.3% | Erie pairs resilient demand initiatives with thin underwriting margins |
| COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1189.2% | -10.6% | Coinbase offsets lower spot trading with prediction markets and AI agents |
| TPG TPG Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +7.5% | TPG raises FRE margin outlook as capital formation accelerates |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +2.9% | AJG: Q3 growth and AssuredPartners synergies support outlook |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the NWG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T16:30:42.974976+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T16:30:42.972165+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.