Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold32 ratings
Bullish1959.4%
Neutral1031.2%
Bearish39.4%
Nucor Corporation · NUE · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Nucor outlines 2026 growth projects as quarterly results miss consensus
Nucor's earnings outlook is supported by backlog, domestic demand tied to infrastructure and energy, and a lower capital-spending plan, but the thesis depends on project execution, utilization without price pressure and continued trade protection.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$53.23B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.73
Consensus $1.91
EPS surprise
-9.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.69B
Consensus $7.91B
Revenue surprise
-2.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.1%
Up to 20 sessions
NUESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NUE FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NUE fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NUE's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NUE after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis adds a roughly 40% year-over-year increase in backlog, a projected 5% shipment increase for 2026 and a reduction in capital spending to about $2.5 billion. Management also identified the West Virginia sheet mill, galvanizing lines and utility-pole facilities as progressing toward 2026 operation and EBITDA contribution.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management expects 2026 shipments to increase 5% and plans 2026 capital spending of about $2.5 billion.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted a roughly 40% year-over-year increase in backlog and expects 2026 steel shipments to rise 5%.
- The West Virginia sheet mill, galvanizing lines and utility-pole facilities remain key execution priorities for 2026.
- Management expects capital spending to decline to about $2.5 billion in 2026, with maintenance spending around $800 million annually thereafter.
- Trade protection, infrastructure, energy, data-center and utility-tower demand were identified as important supports, while automotive and residential weakness remain risks.
Management priorities
- Complete and ramp the West Virginia sheet mill by year-end 2026.
- Commission the Berkeley County galvanizing line and Indiana utility-pole plant.
- Advance Utah greenfield projects and additional utility-tower facilities.
- Pursue adjacent steel-centric M&A in data-center support and building systems.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$233.75Previous close
$110Low
$201.38Average
$297High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 11, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 5, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 15, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2021 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Buy | Downgrade | May 31, 2019 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 9, 2019 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 6, 2016 |
| CLSA | Sell | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 13, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 14, 2015 |
| Clarksons Platou | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 14, 2015 |
| CIBC | Sector Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2014 |
| Bernstein | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 12, 2013 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 4, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $233.75. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $280 | $265.14 | +19.8% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $295 | $263.18 | +26.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $265.62 | +27.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $295 | $265.62 | +26.2% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $270 | $265.62 | +15.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $272 | $235.09 | +16.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $274 | $239.63 | +17.2% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $258 | $243.83 | +10.4% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $252.6 | +21.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $257.73 | +24.9% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Richard Garchitorena | $270 | $226.44 | +15.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $224.9 | +4.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $225.11 | +2.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $217.23 | +0.5% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $215 | -4.2% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $190.04 | -8.9% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $183 | $173.58 | -21.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $180 | $167.88 | -23.0% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $176 | $160.69 | -24.7% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $151.99 | -28.1% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $147 | $151.99 | -37.1% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $165 | $152.4 | -29.4% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $142.83 | -40.1% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $164 | $127.4 | -29.8% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $160 | $127.4 | -31.6% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $132.49 | -33.7% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $154 | $131.3 | -34.1% | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $160 | $147.73 | -31.6% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| CFRA | Matthew Miller | $129 | $146.02 | -44.8% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $170 | $142.18 | -27.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $160 | $142.18 | -31.6% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Carlos De Alba | $176 | $141.26 | -24.7% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Katja Jancic | $175 | $153.61 | -25.1% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $170 | $154.44 | -27.3% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Christopher LaFemina | $190 | $172.12 | -18.7% | May 20, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $151.01 | -38.0% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $116.63 | -40.1% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $122.31 | -50.8% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $103.46 | -48.2% | Jul 6, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $190 | $149.39 | -18.7% | May 4, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $168.66 | -36.7% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | David Gagliano | $168 | $173.05 | -28.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $171.27 | -25.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Michael Glick | $129 | $165.32 | -44.8% | Apr 14, 2022 |
| UBS | Andreas Bokkenheuser | $110 | $107.06 | -52.9% | Jun 4, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNucor Corporation is a prominent producer and distributor of steel and diverse steel-related products. Within its Steel Mills division, the company manufactures a comprehensive range of steel goods. These include various sheet steel types like hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized, alongside plate steel. It also produces structural components such as wide-flange beams, beam blanks, H-piling, and sheet piling. Furthermore, this segment supplies bar steel products, encompassing blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing bars, merchant bars, and specialized bar quality items. Beyond manufacturing, Nucor's steel mills are involved in steel trading and the distribution of rebar. Its clientele primarily consists of steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The Steel Products segment provides an array of manufactured steel goods, such as hollow structural section tubing, electrical conduits, steel racking, joists and girders, steel decks, and fabricated concrete reinforcing steel.…
Historical context
All NUE earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T08:16:10.291837+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T08:16:10.288794+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.