Nokia Oyj · NOK · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Nokia leans into optical growth, capacity investment and defense

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: AI and cloud demand is driving optical and IP networking growth, while increased capacity investment and diversification could extend that momentum. The case is tempered by Q1 seasonality, component-cost pressure, execution risk and limited North America visibility.

Reported Before market openNYSETechnology $42.51B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.21 Consensus $0.17
EPS surprise +23.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $7.31B Consensus $7.12B
Revenue surprise +2.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -7.8% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -7.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.5× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +22.7% Up to 20 sessions
NOKSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NOK FY2025 Q4

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Why did NOK fall 7.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NOK's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NOK after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Nokia highlighted stronger strategic emphasis on optical capacity, AI-native networking and defense, including a planned fab investment and new ecosystem initiatives. Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, capex is now described as increasing, while the 2026 operating-profit outlook remains maintained.

Guidance delta

Maintained: 2026 operating profit guidance is €2–2.5bn; capex is set to increase to €0.9–1bn to support optical capacity and a new fab.

Key takeaways

  • Network Infrastructure, led by Optical and IP Networks, remains the primary growth engine.
  • Management is increasing capex for optical manufacturing capacity and a new indium-phosphide fab.
  • Defense, AI-native networking and 6G initiatives broaden the opportunity set, while component costs and Q1 seasonality remain risks.

Management priorities

  • Scale 800-gig ZR/ZR+ and next-generation coherent optics
  • Expand data-center switching, AI-RAN and Network as Code initiatives
  • Build optical manufacturing capacity and develop Nokia Defense

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NOK EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.06 Q1 '24 actual $0.10, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.05 Q2 '24 actual $0.06, match Q2 '25 estimate $0.07 Q2 '25 actual $0.05, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.06 Q3 '25 actual $0.07, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.17 Q4 '25 actual $0.21, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.06 Q1 '26 actual $0.06, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.07 Q2 '26 actual $0.08, match Q3 '26 estimate $0.08 Q3 '26 actual $0.10, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.16 Q1 '27 estimate $0.06 Q2 '27 estimate $0.09 Q3 '27 estimate $0.09
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold52 ratings
Bullish3261.5%
Neutral1528.9%
Bearish59.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$8.11Current
$4.84Low
$8.5Average
$20High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJun 12, 2026
Argus Research Buy HoldUpgradeApr 27, 2026
Jefferies Buy HoldUpgradeOct 28, 2025
Craig-Hallum Buy BuyMaintainJan 6, 2025
Northland Capital Markets Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 18, 2024
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Northland SecuritiesTim Savageaux$20$17.13 +146.8%Jun 3, 2026
Argus ResearchJim Kelleher$15$10.46 +85.1%Apr 27, 2026
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$13$10.53 +60.4%Apr 20, 2026
New StreetAnalyst unavailable$6.57$5.96 -18.9%Nov 20, 2025
Northland SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$8.5$7.77 +4.9%Oct 29, 2025
See 11 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Nokia Oyj stands as a global technology leader, delivering comprehensive network infrastructure and solutions across mobile, fixed, and cloud domains. Its operations are structured into four primary divisions: Mobile Networks, Network Infrastructure, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The Mobile Networks segment furnishes radio access network technologies, spanning from 2G to 5G, alongside crucial microwave radio links for transport. Within Network Infrastructure, Nokia provides fixed access solutions such as fiber and copper, coupled with cloud and virtualization services. This segment also encompasses a robust Wi-Fi portfolio, featuring mesh solutions and cloud-based controllers, as well as sophisticated IP routing solutions for aggregation, edge, and core applications tailored for residential, business, mobile, and industrial sectors.…

Historical context

All NOK earnings
-14.8%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026-5.4%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+4.8%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
INFY Infosys Limited FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 — -5.2% Infosys pairs faster AI growth with lower revenue guidance
SSNC SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +0.6% +2.8% SS&C raises 2026 outlook as AI and tokenization support growth
ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +1.7% +9.7% Roper raises DEPS outlook as AI adoption expands across portfolio
VRSN VeriSign, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -2.0% -0.9% VeriSign reports record registrations as renewal mix becomes a key watchpoint
TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +16.8% -27.7% TTM Technologies Q3: Record Growth, Higher Investment, More Deal Risk
WDC Western Digital Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +12.9% -6.4% Western Digital pairs strong FY27 Q1 growth with an accelerated HDD roadmap

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-23T16:00:42.832707+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-23T16:00:42.829633+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.