Northrop Grumman Corporation · NOC · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Northrop Grumman Raises Guidance as Defense Demand Broadens

The current analysis supports a constructive near-term operating thesis: strong Q2 execution, raised guidance, international growth, and defense-program demand strengthen the outlook, while taxes, capital intensity, and large-program execution remain material offsets.

Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials $68.63B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.11 Consensus $6.92
EPS surprise +2.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $10.35B Consensus $10.06B
Revenue surprise +2.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +9.4% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +9.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.0% Up to 20 sessions
NOCSPY benchmark

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What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from reaffirmed guidance to raised EPS, free cash flow, and segment operating income guidance. International sales growth also accelerated from 11% to 18% year over year, while B-21, Sentinel, and solid-rocket-motor capacity received further program updates.

Guidance delta

Management raised full-year EPS, free cash flow, and segment operating income guidance; the analysis does not provide the prior and new ranges for every measure.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue reached $10.4 billion with an 11.8% segment operating margin.
  • International sales increased 18% year over year, supported by strong bookings and defense budgets.
  • Management raised full-year EPS, free cash flow, and segment operating income guidance.
  • B-21 capacity, Sentinel execution, and solid-rocket-motor expansion are central program developments.
  • Higher effective taxes and execution risk temper the otherwise constructive update.

Management priorities

  • Expand B-21 production capacity and pursue accelerated lot deliveries.
  • Continue ramping Sentinel and other missile-defense programs.
  • Increase solid-rocket-motor output to 25,000 units by 2029.
  • Advance space-based interceptor testing and the Beacon autonomous test bed.
  • Build international partnerships and capacity with U.S. and allied customers.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NOC EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $5.79 Q1 '24 actual $6.32, beat Q2 '24 estimate $5.93 Q2 '24 actual $6.36, beat Q3 '24 estimate $6.07 Q3 '24 actual $7.00, beat Q2 '25 estimate $6.92 Q2 '25 actual $7.11, beat Q3 '25 estimate $6.44 Q3 '25 actual $7.67, beat Q4 '25 estimate $6.98 Q4 '25 actual $7.23, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6.06 Q1 '26 actual $6.14, beat Q2 '26 estimate $6.82 Q2 '26 actual $7.68, beat Q3 '26 estimate $7.18 Q4 '26 estimate $8.00 Q1 '27 estimate $6.62 Q2 '27 estimate $7.48
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy35 ratings
Bullish1954.3%
Neutral1542.9%
Bearish12.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$483.11Previous close
$350Low
$605.47Average
$815High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
RBC Capital Sector Perform OutperformDowngradeOct 2, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 23, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 8, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainAug 19, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
Show 30 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $483.11. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Redburn PartnersMaggie Schooley$680$476.11 +40.8%Oct 6, 2026
RBC CapitalKen Herbert$525$482 +8.7%Oct 2, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$620$509.86 +28.3%Sep 23, 2026
GuggenheimMichael Ciarmoli$612$527.39 +26.7%Sep 14, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$704$514.98 +45.7%Sep 8, 2026
See 63 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Northrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated battle management solutions, various weapons platforms, and specialized aircraft.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T10:50:44.478844+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T10:50:44.476539+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.