Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy35 ratings
Bullish1954.3%
Neutral1542.9%
Bearish12.8%
Northrop Grumman Corporation · NOC · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Northrop Grumman: Backlog Strength Meets Execution Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive demand and growth backdrop for Northrop Grumman, led by backlog, international programs, and B-21/IBCS activity. The case remains dependent on disciplined execution, program schedules, margin delivery, and the returns from higher capex.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$72.54B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $6.24
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $10.95B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.5%
Up to 20 sessions
NOCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NOC FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove NOC's +0.4% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in NOC's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NOC after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, backlog increased from $85 billion to $91.5 billion, while the outlook shifted toward higher 2025 capex and continued advanced-manufacturing investment. The company also emphasized international growth, microelectronics, and the training-services divestiture.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2025 guidance, including 3%-4% organic sales growth and double-digit free-cash-flow growth; this follows the prior quarter's EPS-guidance increase.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted record backlog of $91.5 billion and book-to-bill above 1.0 as evidence of demand strength.
- 2024 sales grew 4.4% to $41 billion, while free cash flow rose 25% to $2.6 billion.
- The B-21 and IBCS programs, international sales, and advanced manufacturing remain central growth drivers.
- The company plans $1.5 billion of 2025 capex, increasing investment while working to expand margins and free cash flow.
Management priorities
- Ramp B-21 production and the LRIP lot.
- Expand advanced manufacturing, digital-factory, microelectronics, and solid-rocket-motor capacity.
- Grow international sales through IBCS, E-2D, Triton, and other NATO programs.
- Complete the training-services divestiture and focus the portfolio on core defense activities.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$510.65Previous close
$350Low
$598.88Average
$815High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Feb 3, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 27, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Feb 1, 2016 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 28, 2015 |
| Argus Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 25, 2014 |
| CRT Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2014 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $510.65. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $556 | $481.38 | +8.9% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $419 | $484.48 | -17.9% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Maggie Schooley | $680 | $476.11 | +33.2% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $525 | $482 | +2.8% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $620 | $509.86 | +21.4% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Michael Ciarmoli | $612 | $527.39 | +19.8% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $704 | $514.98 | +37.9% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $653 | $551.39 | +27.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $615 | $528.95 | +20.4% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $655 | $512.29 | +28.3% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $512.29 | -2.1% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $745 | $528.67 | +45.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $533 | $541.82 | +4.4% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $620 | $549.04 | +21.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $580 | $504.57 | +13.6% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $620 | $555.58 | +21.4% | May 26, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $575.11 | +29.2% | Apr 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $745 | $589.65 | +45.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $710 | $690.57 | +39.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $785 | $686.26 | +53.7% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $690 | $692.26 | +35.1% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $765 | $692.46 | +49.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $750 | $682.1 | +46.9% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $778 | $665.93 | +52.4% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $674.5 | +49.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| BTIG | Andre Madrid | $815 | $678.74 | +59.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Robert Stallard | $688 | $678.74 | +34.7% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $772 | $666.26 | +51.2% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $752 | $643.74 | +47.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $777 | $646.45 | +52.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $727 | $633.27 | +42.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $623 | $590.79 | +22.0% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $714 | $575.29 | +39.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Alembic Global | Peter Skibitski | $662 | $570.06 | +29.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $696 | $596.48 | +36.3% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $770 | $599.35 | +50.8% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| BTIG | Andre Madrid | $680 | $599.35 | +33.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $690 | $599.35 | +35.1% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $674 | $594.5 | +32.0% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $688 | $618.54 | +34.7% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $720 | $625.23 | +41.0% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $700 | $621.63 | +37.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $540 | $515.29 | +5.7% | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $525 | $472.65 | +2.8% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $550 | $472.65 | +7.7% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $513.82 | +12.6% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $557 | $452.39 | +9.1% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $550 | $504.05 | +7.7% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | David Strauss | $550 | $512.15 | +7.7% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $565 | $527.09 | +10.6% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Jason Gursky | $587 | $532.23 | +15.0% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $592 | $528.11 | +15.9% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $470.57 | $470.57 | -7.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $500 | $483.43 | -2.1% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $575 | $482.3 | +12.6% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $474 | $425.83 | -7.2% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $500 | $444.78 | -2.1% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $518 | $485.03 | +1.4% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $473 | $463.92 | -7.4% | Jan 25, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $490 | $440.64 | -4.0% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $487.98 | -26.6% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $489.6 | +5.7% | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $626 | $528.49 | +22.6% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $544 | $543.2 | +6.5% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $482 | $441.74 | -5.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $472 | $441.42 | -7.6% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $350 | $348 | -31.5% | Sep 23, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Richard Safran | $419 | $350.55 | -17.9% | Jul 19, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Joseph DeNardi | $475 | $361.91 | -7.0% | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $388 | $332.95 | -24.0% | Apr 13, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNorthrop Grumman Corporation is a leading global player in the aerospace and defense sectors. Its Aeronautics Systems division is responsible for the full lifecycle of aircraft, from design and development to production, integration, and ongoing maintenance. This includes a diverse portfolio of crewed and uncrewed aerial platforms: advanced strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air superiority jets, and sophisticated airborne systems for battle management and command and control. Additionally, it specializes in autonomous uncrewed aircraft systems, such as high-altitude, long-endurance strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, alongside vertical take-off and landing tactical ISR systems. The Defense Systems segment focuses on creating and delivering a wide array of weapons and mission technologies. Its offerings encompass integrated battle management solutions, various weapons platforms, and specialized aircraft.…
Historical context
All NOC earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.6% | -2.0% | J.B. Hunt: Strong demand, but margin repair remains central |
| FAST Fastenal Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.3% | +1.1% | Fastenal Q3: Share Gains and Digital Adoption Lift Growth |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-16T00:01:26.053560+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-20T11:50:41.595274+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-20T11:50:41.592586+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-20. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.