NIKE, Inc. · NKE · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2026

Nike's product momentum meets inventory and margin pressure

The quarter provides mixed evidence for a durable recovery: product innovation, Running and football growth, and North America wholesale momentum support the case, but inventory cleanup, Sportswear weakness, tariffs, promotions, and weaker Direct performance continue to constrain revenue and margins.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $53.35B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.35 Consensus $0.29
EPS surprise +20.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $11.28B Consensus $11.23B
Revenue surprise +0.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -15.5% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -16.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 6.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -0.6% Up to 20 sessions
NKESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, the analysis adds evidence that inventory cleanup is actively weighing on reported revenue while Running, football, and North America wholesale remain comparatively strong. Sportswear and EMEA promotional pressure are clearer constraints, and management now emphasizes completing Win Now actions and presenting a detailed long-term strategy later this fall.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management projects a low-single-digit revenue decline and anticipates margin expansion in Q2.

Key takeaways

  • Management said deliberate inventory cleanup created a five-point revenue headwind but should improve revenue quality.
  • Running and football delivered double-digit growth, while North America wholesale remained a strength.
  • Sportswear, EMEA promotions, tariffs, and weaker Direct performance remain the main offsets.
  • Management plans to complete Win Now actions by year-end and present a longer-term strategy at an Investor Day later this fall.

Management priorities

  • Complete Win Now actions by the end of calendar year.
  • Scale NIKE MIND and additional innovation platforms.
  • Expand the China store pilot to 100 locations.
  • Accelerate wholesale partnerships and city-offense initiatives.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NKE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $0.85 Q2 '24 actual $1.03, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.74 Q3 '24 actual $0.98, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.83 Q4 '24 actual $1.01, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.52 Q1 '25 actual $0.70, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.13 Q4 '25 actual $0.14, match Q1 '26 estimate $0.27 Q1 '26 actual $0.49, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.37 Q2 '26 actual $0.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q3 '26 actual $0.35, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.11 Q4 '26 actual $0.72, beat Q1 '27 estimate $0.44 Q2 '27 estimate $0.52 Q3 '27 estimate $0.42 Q4 '27 estimate $0.27
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold69 ratings
Bullish3246.4%
Neutral3144.9%
Bearish68.7%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$35.99Current
$30Low
$89.97Average
$192High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Stifel Hold HoldMaintainSep 21, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 17, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Market Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 15, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 14, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeSep 14, 2026
Show 65 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $35.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$52$35.9 +44.5%Sep 23, 2026
BarclaysAdrienne Yih$48$36.1 +33.4%Sep 23, 2026
Stifel NicolausPeter McGoldrick$40$35.51 +11.1%Sep 21, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$42$35.78 +16.7%Sep 17, 2026
Telsey AdvisoryChristina Fernandez$44$37.05 +22.3%Sep 15, 2026
See 178 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T21:40:53.933502+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T21:40:53.930534+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.