NiSource Inc · NI · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

NiSource holds guidance as GenCo growth advances

The Q2 update supports a constructive but conditional view: management paired maintained guidance with continued data-center and regulatory growth initiatives, while recovery timing, affordability, and execution risks remain material.

Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities $19.42B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.16 Consensus $0.16
EPS surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.34B Consensus $1.15B
Revenue surprise +17.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -3.6% Event window
SPY move -0.2% Same window
Abnormal move -3.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -4.1% Up to 20 sessions
NISPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, the supplied analysis emphasized regulatory approvals and filings, maintained the capital plan, and added detail on cost optimization and the federal order affecting the Schahfer plant. The data-center strategy remained central, while affordability and recovery timing stayed key watchpoints.

Guidance delta

Full-year EPS guidance was maintained at the prior-quarter level; the supplied analysis indicates confidence in second-half earnings growth.

Key takeaways

  • Management maintained full-year EPS guidance and described the data-center strategy as a major growth driver.
  • Regulatory progress in Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana supports the recovery framework, but timing remains important.
  • The base capital plan was maintained while management highlighted GenCo opportunities and cost optimization.
  • Weather-related outages, affordability pressure, and federal requirements offset part of the positive operating picture.

Management priorities

  • Advance data-center load and GenCo opportunities.
  • Pursue rate cases and tracker mechanisms to support capital recovery.
  • Continue cost optimization and AI-enabled operational efficiency.
  • Maintain balanced financing while executing infrastructure investment.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NI REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $2B Q1 '24 actual $2B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $905M Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1B Q3 '25 actual $1B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $2B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '27 estimate $2B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy21 ratings
Bullish1571.4%
Neutral628.6%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$40.1Current
$32Low
$45.36Average
$52High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 26, 2026
Ladenburg Thalmann Buy BuyMaintainAug 17, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 7, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 23, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 17, 2026
Show 16 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $40.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesGabriel Moreen$48$40.97 +19.7%Aug 26, 2026
KeyBancSophie Karp$50$46.57 +24.7%Jul 23, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$51$45.97 +27.2%Jul 20, 2026
RBC CapitalStephen D'Ambrisi$52$46.88 +29.7%Jul 1, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$52$46.98 +29.7%May 11, 2026
See 22 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through approximately 37,300 miles of distribution main pipeline and the associated individual customer service lines; and 310 miles of transmission main pipeline in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-05T20:09:09.756138+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-10T01:23:13.706414+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T17:40:53.278150+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T17:40:53.275342+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.