Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish2054.1%
Neutral1643.2%
Bearish12.7%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · NCLH · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
NCLH Q4 2025: EPS Beat, Revenue Miss, New CEO Flags Execution Gaps
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings delivered a mixed Q4 2025 — beating EPS estimates by 5.8% while missing revenue by 4.2%. The stock sold off sharply (abnormal move of -10.6%), with the market reacting to flat 2026 net yield guidance and new CEO John Chidze's candid assessment of execution missteps, particularly around mistimed Caribbean capacity deployment. The longer-term growth story — 17 new ships ordered through 2037, private-island investments, and revenue-management technology — remains intact, but near-term results hinge on whether the operational review translates into improved pricing and deployment alignment.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$8.59B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages a portfolio of three distinct cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. NCLH offers an extensive range of voyages, from brief three-day excursions to lengthy 180-day expeditions.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.28
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
+5.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.24B
Consensus $2.34B
Revenue surprise
-4.2%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$18.53Current
$13Low
$24.05Average
$38High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 19, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2021 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2020 |
| Redburn | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Strong Sell | Maintain | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2019 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 7, 2016 |
| DNB Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 4, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $18.53. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $19.61 | -2.9% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $16 | $19.63 | -13.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $19.14 | +18.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $21 | $18.83 | +13.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.11 | +34.9% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $18 | $18.13 | -2.9% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.34 | +18.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $17 | $14.94 | -8.3% | May 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $17.34 | -2.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $17.2 | -19.1% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $17.2 | +7.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $17.2 | -24.4% | May 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $17.2 | +2.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.09 | +40.3% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $19.76 | +13.3% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $23 | $19.96 | +24.1% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $20.16 | +45.7% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Greg Badishkanian | $25 | $22.18 | +34.9% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $30 | $22.18 | +61.9% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $25 | $22.18 | +34.9% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $22.18 | +45.7% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $20 | $22.18 | +7.9% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $28 | $22.18 | +51.1% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $31 | $23.56 | +67.3% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $24.34 | +78.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $21.54 | +24.1% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $20.86 | +7.9% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $20.56 | +72.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $19.11 | +13.3% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $18.57 | +40.3% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $21 | $18.82 | +13.3% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $18.4 | +45.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $28 | $18.79 | +51.1% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $31 | $25.41 | +67.3% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $38 | $24.74 | +105.1% | Aug 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $24.45 | +45.7% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $34 | $26.42 | +83.5% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $35 | $28.4 | +88.9% | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $36 | $27.82 | +94.3% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $30 | $24.88 | +61.9% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $19 | $23.96 | +2.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $26 | $23.71 | +40.3% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $30 | $23.07 | +61.9% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $29 | $20.39 | +56.5% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $26 | $17.94 | +40.3% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $21 | $16.56 | +13.3% | May 29, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $24 | $16 | +29.5% | May 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $20 | $16.94 | +7.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $20 | $16.94 | +7.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $19 | $16.94 | +2.5% | May 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $20 | $16.94 | +7.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $26 | $16.94 | +40.3% | May 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $19 | $16.08 | +2.5% | May 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $25 | $19.17 | +34.9% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $21 | $20.54 | +13.3% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $19 | $19.87 | +2.5% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Alex Brignall | $25 | $15.18 | +34.9% | Sep 25, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $13.75 | -37.9% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $13.8 | -29.8% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $15.46 | +2.5% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $15.64 | +61.9% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $16.12 | +13.3% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $17.59 | -24.4% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $17.87 | +29.5% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $32 | $14.62 | +72.7% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $13 | $14.16 | -29.8% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $14 | $11.43 | -24.4% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $20 | $11.43 | +7.9% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $18 | $16.14 | -2.9% | May 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.22 | +29.5% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $20 | $19.86 | +7.9% | Mar 25, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $23 | $17.39 | +24.1% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| Citigroup | James Ainley | $25 | $22.63 | +34.9% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brandt Montour | $37 | $24.66 | +99.7% | Aug 9, 2021 |
| UBS | Robin M. Farley | $29 | $27.66 | +56.5% | May 11, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $37 | $26.75 | +99.7% | Apr 20, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NCLH the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-10.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-10.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-20.4%
Up to 20 sessions
NCLHSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Q4 EPS of $0.28 topped the $0.265 consensus by 5.8%, while revenue of $2.24B fell short of the $2.34B estimate by 4.2%. The market reaction was severe: shares dropped 10.6% on the session with double normal volume, and subsequently drifted another 20% lower. New CEO John Chidze, on the job only two weeks, launched a comprehensive business review and openly identified execution gaps, cultural siloing, and Caribbean capacity misalignment as primary challenges. 2026 guidance calls for flat net yield growth versus the modest gains achieved in 2025.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was lowered. 2026 net yield growth guided to flat, a deceleration from 2025's modest gains. Unit cost growth expected to remain sub-inflationary with a $300M+ savings program. Leverage projected to stay around 5.2x. Management expects improvement later in 2026 and into 2027 as deployment and commercial strategy realign.
Key takeaways
- Execution and cultural siloing identified as the biggest short-term obstacles; new leadership focused on accountability and cohesion.
- Cost discipline yielded sub-inflationary unit cost growth and a $300M+ savings program.
- 2026 guidance shows flat net yield growth, modest cost increase, and leverage flat at ~5.2x, reflecting near-term headwinds.
- Caribbean capacity increase was mistimed and misaligned with commercial support, prompting corrective actions.
- Long-term growth underpinned by new ship deliveries, private-island investments, and improved revenue-management capabilities.
Management priorities
- Comprehensive business review to align deployment, pricing, marketing, and revenue management.
- Implementation of a new revenue-management system across brands.
- Opening of Great Tides Waterpark on Great Stirrup Cay in summer 2026.
- Continued shipbuilding program with deliveries through 2037.
- Further SG&A cost reductions and cultural initiatives to improve execution.
Related earnings events
Consumer CyclicalDECK · FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026Deckers Crosses $1 Billion Quarterly Revenue as HOKA and UGG DTC Drive Margin GainsTSCO · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026TSCO Q2: Comp Sales Turn Negative as Pet Ecosystem ExpandsPKG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026PKG Beats Q2 EPS Guidance as Greif Integration Hits Stride
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T19:31:18.252688+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T19:31:18.249716+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.