Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1745.9%
Bearish12.7%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. · NCLH · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
NCLH: Strong 2024 results, maintained 2025 outlook, execution risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating trajectory: record 2024 results, resilient demand, flat unit costs, and a new-ship pipeline provide support for continued growth. The case remains conditional on occupancy, cost control, leverage, and the execution of ship and destination investments.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$6.91B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.10
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.10B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.3%
Event window
SPY move
-1.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-16.1%
Up to 20 sessions
NCLHSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NCLH FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove NCLH's -5.3% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in NCLH's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NCLH after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, the company moved from a raised outlook to a maintained 2025 outlook. The latest analysis emphasized record full-year 2024 performance, roughly 500 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and a larger execution focus around Norwegian Aqua, Oceania Allura, Great Stirrup Cay, and the 13-ship order book.
Guidance delta
Maintained: management's 2025 outlook called for about 3% net-yield growth, $2.72 billion of adjusted EBITDA, and leverage near 5 times.
Key takeaways
- Management reported record 2024 revenue, 10% net-yield growth, and adjusted EBITDA above $2.45 billion.
- Unit costs were essentially flat, supporting adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to about 35.5%.
- Growth depends on new ships, product enhancements, private-island expansion, and continued demand in Europe and Alaska.
Management priorities
- Deliver Norwegian Aqua and Oceania Allura in 2025 while advancing the 13-ship order book.
- Maintain cost efficiency with a 1.25% unit-cost growth target for 2025.
- Expand the Great Stirrup Cay offering and continue investments in onboard connectivity and sustainability.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$15.28Current
$13Low
$23.61Average
$45High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 5, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 2, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2021 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2020 |
| Redburn | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Strong Sell | Maintain | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 8, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2019 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 25, 2017 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 7, 2016 |
| DNB Markets | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 4, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $15.28. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $16 | $14.17 | +4.7% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Joseph Vafi | $45 | $18.18 | +194.5% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $18.18 | +30.9% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $17 | $18.18 | +11.3% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $19.82 | +11.3% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $18.47 | +11.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.72 | +44.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $18.72 | +17.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $19.61 | +17.8% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $16 | $19.63 | +4.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $19.14 | +44.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $21 | $18.83 | +37.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.11 | +63.6% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $18 | $18.13 | +17.8% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.34 | +44.0% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $17 | $14.94 | +11.3% | May 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $17.34 | +17.8% | May 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $17.2 | -1.8% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $17.2 | +30.9% | May 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $17.2 | -8.4% | May 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $17.2 | +24.3% | May 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.09 | +70.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $19.76 | +37.4% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $23 | $19.96 | +50.5% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $20.16 | +76.7% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Greg Badishkanian | $25 | $22.18 | +63.6% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $30 | $22.18 | +96.3% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $25 | $22.18 | +63.6% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $22.18 | +76.7% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $20 | $22.18 | +30.9% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $28 | $22.18 | +83.2% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $31 | $23.56 | +102.9% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $24.34 | +116.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $21.54 | +50.5% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $20.86 | +30.9% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $20.56 | +109.4% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $19.11 | +37.4% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $18.57 | +70.2% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $21 | $18.82 | +37.4% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $18.4 | +76.7% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $28 | $18.79 | +83.2% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $31 | $25.41 | +102.9% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $38 | $24.74 | +148.7% | Aug 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $24.45 | +76.7% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $34 | $26.42 | +122.5% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $35 | $28.4 | +129.1% | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $36 | $27.82 | +135.6% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $30 | $24.88 | +96.3% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $19 | $23.96 | +24.3% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $26 | $23.71 | +70.2% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $30 | $23.07 | +96.3% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $29 | $20.39 | +89.8% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $26 | $17.94 | +70.2% | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $21 | $16.56 | +37.4% | May 29, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $24 | $16 | +57.1% | May 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $20 | $16.94 | +30.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $20 | $16.94 | +30.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $19 | $16.94 | +24.3% | May 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $20 | $16.94 | +30.9% | May 21, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $26 | $16.94 | +70.2% | May 21, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $19 | $16.08 | +24.3% | May 2, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $25 | $19.17 | +63.6% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $21 | $20.54 | +37.4% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $19 | $19.87 | +24.3% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Redburn Partners | Alex Brignall | $25 | $15.18 | +63.6% | Sep 25, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $11.5 | $13.75 | -24.7% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $13 | $13.8 | -14.9% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $19 | $15.46 | +24.3% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $15.64 | +96.3% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $21 | $16.12 | +37.4% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $14 | $17.59 | -8.4% | Nov 17, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $17.87 | +57.1% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $32 | $14.62 | +109.4% | Oct 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $13 | $14.16 | -14.9% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $14 | $11.43 | -8.4% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $20 | $11.43 | +30.9% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $18 | $16.14 | +17.8% | May 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $22.22 | +57.1% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $20 | $19.86 | +30.9% | Mar 25, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $23 | $17.39 | +50.5% | Mar 4, 2022 |
| Citigroup | James Ainley | $25 | $22.63 | +63.6% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brandt Montour | $37 | $24.66 | +142.1% | Aug 9, 2021 |
| UBS | Robin M. Farley | $29 | $27.66 | +89.8% | May 11, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $37 | $26.75 | +142.1% | Apr 20, 2021 |
Track every rating change on NCLH the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages a portfolio of three distinct cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. NCLH offers an extensive range of voyages, from brief three-day excursions to lengthy 180-day expeditions.…
Historical context
All NCLH earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-20T12:50:20.254165+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T13:30:45.313582+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T13:30:45.310741+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.