Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold31 ratings
Bullish1548.4%
Neutral1651.6%
Bearish00.0%
Match Group, Inc. · MTCH · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Match Group: Tinder stabilization and Hinge expansion remain the focus
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of Match Group’s operating trajectory: Tinder showed early stabilization signals and Hinge continued to provide expansion momentum. The case still depends on converting product improvements into paying-user growth while managing investment, regulation and competitive pressure.
Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services
$9.37B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.86
Consensus $0.81
EPS surprise
+6.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$878.0M
Consensus $871.7M
Revenue surprise
+0.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+5.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.3%
Up to 20 sessions
MTCHSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MTCH FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MTCH rise 5.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MTCH's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MTCH after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis places greater emphasis on early Tinder stabilization, the scale-up of FaceCheck and AI-enabled product work, and Hinge’s international expansion. The central debate has shifted from identifying initiatives to proving that they improve conversion and sustainable profitability.
Guidance delta
Management’s guidance sentiment was maintained. The call emphasized near-term investment and execution while positioning product improvements and Hinge expansion as longer-term growth drivers.
Key takeaways
- Management described early Tinder stabilization tied to product, safety and recommendation improvements.
- Hinge remains the clearest reported growth engine, supported by international expansion.
- The strategy requires continued investment in product and marketing before benefits are fully reflected in payer growth.
- Capital returns and cost discipline remain part of the broader financial framework.
Management priorities
- Execute the Tinder product roadmap focused on relevance, verification and discovery.
- Broaden FaceCheck and AI-enabled features across markets.
- Continue Hinge expansion in Latin America, India, Europe and other international markets.
- Use product and marketing tests to improve conversion and user outcomes.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$40.13Current
$32Low
$75.47Average
$178High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 23, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 21, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 17, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 12, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 12, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2024 |
| BTIG | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 21, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 10, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Nomura Instinet | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $40.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $41 | $37.96 | +2.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nathan Feather | $40 | $37.94 | -0.3% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Ken Gawrelski | $41 | $37.67 | +2.2% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $38.34 | -7.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $42 | $36.9 | +4.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Eric Sheridan | $43 | $37.65 | +7.2% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nathan Feather | $38 | $37.65 | -5.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $37.65 | -5.3% | May 6, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ross Sandler | $51 | $37.65 | +27.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $30.61 | -7.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $30.47 | -15.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $30.23 | -15.3% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $28.9 | -12.8% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $37 | $32 | -7.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $32.46 | +7.2% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $37 | $33.94 | -7.8% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $33.2 | -12.8% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $31.55 | -17.8% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Mark Mahaney | $35 | $31.55 | -12.8% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nathan Feather | $34 | $32.5 | -15.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Robert Coolbrith | $32 | $29.34 | -20.3% | May 21, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $43 | $36.86 | +7.2% | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Ross Sandler | $53 | $30.7 | +32.1% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $45 | $38.37 | +12.1% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Mohammed Khallouf | $43.2 | $35.88 | +7.7% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexandra Steiger | $45 | $37.06 | +12.1% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $47 | $36.92 | +17.1% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jian Li | $43 | $38.24 | +7.2% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nathan Feather | $33 | $30.94 | -17.8% | Jul 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $33 | $29.82 | -17.8% | May 9, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $44 | $30.34 | +9.6% | May 9, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $46 | $32.02 | +14.6% | May 6, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Nathan Feather | $37 | $32.28 | -7.8% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Matt Farrell | $45 | $35.54 | +12.1% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Brad Erickson | $52 | $28.88 | +29.6% | Nov 1, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | and/or apps | $55 | $45.99 | +37.1% | Aug 3, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $42 | $46.01 | +4.7% | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.15 | +49.5% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $50.65 | +84.4% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $41.06 | +34.6% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $42.71 | +14.6% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $74 | $43 | +84.4% | Oct 24, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Benjamin Black | $85 | $64.9 | +111.8% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $64.81 | +149.2% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $65.13 | +99.4% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $63.24 | +149.2% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $63.24 | +111.8% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $63.24 | +94.4% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $63.24 | +99.4% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Youssef Squali | $68 | $61.84 | +69.4% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $128 | $69.89 | +219.0% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $66.36 | +62.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $65.13 | +161.6% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $75.2 | +124.3% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $76.59 | +136.7% | Jul 7, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexandra Steiger | $105 | $68.56 | +161.6% | Jun 19, 2022 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Brian Fitzgerald | $115 | $72.29 | +186.6% | May 9, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $74.92 | +186.6% | May 5, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $75.47 | +273.8% | May 5, 2022 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $79.49 | +174.1% | May 5, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Matt Farrell | $125 | $83.88 | +211.5% | May 4, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Lauren Schenk | $77 | $79.46 | +91.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $82.48 | +236.4% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Benjamin Black | $135 | $88.45 | +236.4% | Mar 11, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Daniel Salmon | $130 | $112.42 | +223.9% | Feb 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Lauren Schenk | $175 | $111.98 | +336.1% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Barclays | Mario Lu | $132 | $111.98 | +228.9% | Feb 3, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Shweta Khajuria | $175 | $118.01 | +336.1% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Justin Patterson | $155 | $112.7 | +286.2% | Jan 31, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | John Blackledge | $154 | $106.5 | +283.8% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alexandra Steiger | $157 | $124.08 | +291.2% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Deepak Mathivanan | $163 | $132.97 | +306.2% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Nat Schindler | $178 | $154.09 | +343.6% | Nov 1, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Jason Helfstein | $165 | $139.96 | +311.2% | May 6, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MTCH the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMatch Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and other brands, built to increase users' likelihood of connecting with others. It provides tailored services to meet the various preferences of its users. Match Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Historical context
All MTCH earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the MTCH recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T19:46:12.192151+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T19:46:12.189011+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.