Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold48 ratings
Bullish1531.3%
Neutral2960.4%
Bearish48.3%
M&T Bank Corporation · MTB · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
M&T Bank: Loan Growth and Capital Flexibility Anchor 2026 Outlook
M&T Bank's reported results and management commentary support a constructive but conditional view: loan, fee-income, and deposit growth plus capital flexibility provide support, while regulation, expenses, rates, and CRE recovery are the principal tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$32.06B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.67
Consensus $4.48
EPS surprise
+4.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.48B
Consensus $2.47B
Revenue surprise
+0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.6%
Up to 20 sessions
MTBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MTB FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MTB fall 0.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MTB's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MTB after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the focus from the prior quarter's Q4 NII and margin outlook to a 2026 framework: NII of $7.27 billion, fee income of $2.68-$2.78 billion, CET1 of 10.25%-10.5%, and expenses of $5.5-$5.6 billion. Management also highlighted operational excellence, regional expansion, and capital flexibility.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook, including 2026 NII of $7.27 billion, fee income of $2.68-$2.78 billion, CET1 of 10.25%-10.5%, and expenses of $5.5-$5.6 billion.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted continued loan, fee-income, and deposit growth.
- The 2026 outlook pairs modest NII growth with continued fee expansion and expense discipline.
- Capital flexibility supports lending, potential M&A, and shareholder returns, while CRE recovery and regulation remain watchpoints.
Management priorities
- Operational-excellence initiatives, including automation and control processes
- Regional expansion and cross-selling through the Team for Growth effort
- Continued share buybacks, dividend growth, and capital-efficiency work
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$220.44Current
$153Low
$234.76Average
$304High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 10, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 26, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2023 |
| Odeon Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 29, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 18, 2023 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 21, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 7, 2020 |
| Citi | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 22, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 22, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 27, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Aug 4, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 15, 2016 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 23, 2016 |
| Portales Partners | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 21, 2016 |
| Argus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 29, 2016 |
| Credit Suisse | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 10, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 21, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 8, 2015 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2014 |
| Rafferty Capital | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 7, 2014 |
| Rafferty | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 7, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2013 |
| FBR Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2013 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 18, 2013 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 21, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $220.44. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Brian Foran | $250 | $222.06 | +13.4% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Manan Gosalia | $304 | $239.84 | +37.9% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $251.5 | +29.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $249.1 | +15.7% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $252.02 | +27.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $250.73 | +13.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $249.44 | +21.6% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $252.07 | +20.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $248.53 | +15.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $248.53 | +13.4% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $248.53 | +1.6% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $248.53 | +21.1% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $248.53 | +36.1% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $241.85 | +18.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $241.18 | +14.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $239.37 | +17.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $215 | $238.88 | -2.5% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David George | $240 | $238.88 | +8.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $236.99 | +14.8% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Dave Rochester | $253 | $216.95 | +14.8% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $217.57 | +6.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $225 | $217.1 | +2.1% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $212.28 | +4.3% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $220 | $212.28 | -0.2% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $211.38 | +15.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $230 | $208.82 | +4.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $204.04 | +7.1% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $179.79 | -1.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $208 | $189.94 | -5.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $194.56 | +2.1% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $225 | $198.3 | +2.1% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Manan Gosalia | $251 | $200.14 | +13.9% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $199.8 | +3.4% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Chiaverini | $225 | $185.74 | +2.1% | May 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $157.02 | +2.1% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Frank Schiraldi | $243 | $221.29 | +10.2% | Nov 27, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $207 | $197.55 | -6.1% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ryan Nash | $216 | $197.77 | -2.0% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerald Cassidy | $208 | $198.87 | -5.6% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $228 | $198.87 | +3.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $165 | $189.35 | -25.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Bill Carcache | $210 | $176.7 | -4.7% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $210 | $172.72 | -4.7% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Wedbush | David Chiaverini | $210 | $177.62 | -4.7% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Frank Schiraldi | $190 | $165.25 | -13.8% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Peter Winter | $185 | $169.11 | -16.1% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Frank Schiraldi | $164 | $140.83 | -25.6% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Ken Usdin | $160 | $148.52 | -27.4% | Jun 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Mike Mayo | $150 | $140.94 | -32.0% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $160 | $134.56 | -27.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $250 | $139.39 | +13.4% | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $145.06 | -12.0% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $142.28 | -27.4% | Dec 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $139.12 | +2.1% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $146.1 | -30.6% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $148.96 | -25.1% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $169.1 | +6.6% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $166.1 | +8.0% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $167.78 | +0.7% | Jul 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $158.8 | -7.9% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Ken Usdin | $175 | $158.4 | -20.6% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $155.92 | -11.5% | Jul 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $158.67 | -20.6% | Jul 1, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $173.66 | -15.2% | May 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $178.81 | +8.0% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $176.34 | -11.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Gerard Cassidy | $190 | $159.01 | -13.8% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| UBS | Erika Najarian | $212 | $178.3 | -3.8% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jason Goldberg | $195 | $157.16 | -11.5% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ebrahim Poonawala | $193 | $151.49 | -12.4% | Oct 8, 2021 |
| Evercore ISI | John Pancari | $142 | $130.85 | -35.6% | Jul 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MTB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationM&T Bank Corporation functions as a bank holding entity, delivering a broad spectrum of financial solutions to both commercial enterprises and individual consumers. Its Business Banking division caters to small businesses and professionals, providing essential services such as deposit accounts, credit facilities, and treasury management solutions. The Commercial Banking arm extends its reach to middle-market and large corporate clients, supplying a robust suite of offerings including deposit products, commercial loans and leases, letters of credit, and sophisticated cash management tools. Dedicated to Commercial Real Estate, the company engages in the origination, sale, and servicing of commercial property loans, alongside offering deposit services tailored for this sector. The Discretionary Portfolio segment focuses on internal financial management, overseeing deposits, investment securities, residential real estate loans, and other assets, while also managing short- and long-term borrowed funds and foreign exchange operations.…
Historical context
All MTB earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the MTB recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T22:50:55.707734+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T22:50:55.705178+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.