Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy80 ratings
Bullish6581.3%
Neutral1518.7%
Bearish00.0%
Microsoft Corporation · MSFT · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026
Microsoft Q3 FY2026: Record Revenue, AI ARR Tops $37B, Capex Spike Drives Sell-Off
Microsoft's Q3 FY2026 results crystallize the tension between AI monetization and AI investment. Revenue of $82.9B beat estimates by 1.8%, AI annual revenue run-rate surpassed $37B (up 123% YoY), and Microsoft 365 Copilot topped 20M paid seats with 250% YoY growth. Yet the market initially sold off 4.9% on capex guidance exceeding $40B per quarter and $190B for FY2026, before recovering 10.4% as investors digested the strength of AI revenue growth. The central question remains whether Azure revenue can scale fast enough to justify the accelerating capital deployment.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$2835.43B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationMicrosoft Corporation is a prominent global technology firm that invents, markets, and provides ongoing assistance for a diverse range of software, digital services, computing devices, and comprehensive solutions. Its operations are organized into three primary divisions: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment delivers crucial tools for both enterprises and individual users. This includes the extensive Office suite (comprising Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business), along with popular consumer offerings like Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn. It also features Dynamics 365, a suite of integrated cloud and on-premises business applications tailored for organizations. The Intelligent Cloud division focuses on sophisticated infrastructure and platform services.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.27
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+5.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$82.89B
Consensus $81.44B
Revenue surprise
+1.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$389.1Previous close
$234Low
$498.47Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 13, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 15, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 30, 2025 |
| WestPark Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 21, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 17, 2024 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 18, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 26, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2023 |
| Redburn Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 11, 2023 |
| MoffettNathanson | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 20, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 20, 2023 |
| CFRA | Buy | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Jun 20, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 20, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 31, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 19, 2023 |
| SMBC Nikko | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 8, 2022 |
| KGI Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 2, 2021 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2020 |
| Citi | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 24, 2019 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 6, 2017 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2017 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 21, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 20, 2016 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 20, 2016 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Long Term Buy | Downgrade | Feb 1, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 24, 2015 |
| FBN Securities | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 2, 2014 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2014 |
| FBR Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 23, 2014 |
| Summit Research Partners | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 30, 2014 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2014 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2014 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 4, 2014 |
| Evercore Partners | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 27, 2013 |
| McAdams Wright Ragen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 19, 2013 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 30, 2013 |
| Credit Agricole | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2013 |
| BGC FInancial | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 10, 2013 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2012 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2012 |
| Griffin Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 20, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $389.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $480 | $392.14 | +23.4% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Wood | $600 | $402.29 | +54.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| CLSA | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $393.82 | +37.5% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $525 | $384.93 | +34.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $490 | $384.93 | +25.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Joseph Bonner | $510 | $381.85 | +31.1% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $515 | $392.04 | +32.4% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Alex Zukin | $525 | $385.69 | +34.9% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $365.46 | +2.8% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $680 | $413.96 | +74.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $550 | $403.31 | +41.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $405.65 | +41.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $415 | $405.28 | +6.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $510 | $401.73 | +31.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Moerdler | $646 | $424.46 | +66.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $424.46 | +47.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $540 | $424.46 | +38.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $424.46 | +60.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $545 | $424.46 | +40.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $505 | $425.65 | +29.8% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $424.6 | +32.4% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | William Power | $500 | $393.11 | +28.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $384.37 | +32.4% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Billy Fitzsimmons | $500 | $384.37 | +28.5% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Stefan Slowinski | $556 | $370.78 | +42.9% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $411.84 | +10.5% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $392 | $414.19 | +0.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $590 | $423.94 | +51.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brad Zelnick | $575 | $428.63 | +47.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $540 | $426.35 | +38.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $575 | $426.63 | +47.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $580 | $424.4 | +49.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $481.63 | +47.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $426.7 | +41.4% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Patrick Colville | $600 | $425.52 | +54.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $600 | $481.63 | +54.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Mark Moerdler | $641 | $481.63 | +64.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Jackson Ader | $600 | $481.63 | +54.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $615 | $481.63 | +58.1% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $481.63 | +54.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | William Power | $540 | $481.63 | +38.8% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $600 | $481.63 | +54.2% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $520 | $465.95 | +33.6% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $451.14 | +54.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Alex Haissl | $450 | $445.94 | +15.7% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $620 | $454.52 | +59.3% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $459.86 | +60.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $610 | $479.28 | +56.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $655 | $479.28 | +68.3% | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $483.47 | +70.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | John DiFucci | $675 | $493.79 | +73.5% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $503.29 | +54.2% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $639 | $529.17 | +64.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $650 | $525.38 | +67.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Hannah Rudoff | $650 | $541.55 | +67.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $640 | $541.55 | +64.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $645 | $541.55 | +65.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $650 | $541.55 | +67.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $640 | $541.55 | +64.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $700 | $541.55 | +79.9% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Rishi Jaluria | $640 | $538.76 | +64.5% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $640 | $542.08 | +64.5% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Alex Zukin | $675 | $542.46 | +73.5% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $630 | $544.58 | +61.9% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $542.46 | +60.6% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $586 | $523.61 | +50.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $517.66 | +43.9% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $675 | $517.35 | +73.5% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $511.46 | +60.6% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Terry Tillman | $675 | $519.42 | +73.5% | Aug 18, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $582 | $513.24 | +49.6% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $513.24 | +67.1% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $630 | $513.24 | +61.9% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $650 | $554.86 | +67.1% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $554.86 | +60.6% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Jackson Ader | $630 | $513.24 | +61.9% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $675 | $554.86 | +73.5% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $540 | $504.38 | +38.8% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Thomas Blakey | $581 | $503.1 | +49.3% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Brian Schwartz | $600 | $501.76 | +54.2% | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $515 | $454.86 | +32.4% | May 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $472 | $371.61 | +21.3% | Apr 16, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $475 | $359.84 | +22.1% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $595 | $386.84 | +52.9% | Mar 20, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $470 | $387.82 | +20.8% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $425 | $432.53 | +9.2% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $497 | $427.51 | +27.7% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $470 | $416.72 | +20.8% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jackson Ader | $505 | $417.51 | +29.8% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Bradley Sills | $510 | $416.72 | +31.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $500 | $415.93 | +28.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Scott Devitt | $600 | $431.31 | +54.2% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $475 | $435.27 | +22.1% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $480 | $435.15 | +23.4% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brad Zelnick | $475 | $435.13 | +22.1% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Alex Zukin | $495 | $411.68 | +27.2% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $475 | $418.79 | +22.1% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $500 | $417.24 | +28.5% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $506 | $422.92 | +30.0% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Yun Kim | $500 | $442.94 | +28.5% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $485 | $442.94 | +24.6% | Jul 23, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $540 | $452.21 | +38.8% | Jul 16, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $500 | $454.7 | +28.5% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $550 | $442.57 | +41.4% | Jun 16, 2024 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $550 | $441.58 | +41.4% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| New Street | Pierre Ferragu | $570 | $423.85 | +46.5% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Timothy Horan | $500 | $423.85 | +28.5% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $475 | $413.52 | +22.1% | Jun 4, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Dan Ives | $275 | $430.16 | -29.3% | May 24, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $450 | $430.85 | +15.7% | May 22, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $515 | $429.04 | +32.4% | May 22, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $500 | $429.04 | +28.5% | May 22, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Frederick Havemeyer | $475 | $420.21 | +22.1% | May 17, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Kash Rangan | $500 | $420.99 | +28.5% | May 17, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $465 | $413.72 | +19.5% | May 13, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Mark Moerdler | $489 | $399.04 | +25.7% | Apr 26, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $475 | $404.33 | +22.1% | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $480 | $414.58 | +23.4% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Frederick Havemeyer | $455 | $414.58 | +16.9% | Apr 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $475 | $420.06 | +22.1% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $465 | $421.81 | +19.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $465 | $427.93 | +19.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $520 | $423.26 | +33.6% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $465 | $423.14 | +19.5% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Melius Research | Ben Reitzes | $475 | $420.72 | +22.1% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $550 | $420.72 | +41.4% | Mar 31, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $500 | $422.86 | +28.5% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Jackson Ader | $490 | $425.23 | +25.9% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $460 | $415.1 | +18.2% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Keith Bachman | $455 | $402.03 | +16.9% | Jan 31, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $450 | $409.72 | +15.7% | Jan 29, 2024 |
| BNP Paribas | Stefan Slowinski | $471 | $393.73 | +21.0% | Jan 18, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $455 | $388.47 | +16.9% | Jan 12, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $425 | $375.77 | +9.2% | Nov 16, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Stacy Rasgon | $406 | $356.53 | +4.3% | Nov 6, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $425 | $339.98 | +9.2% | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $430 | $330.53 | +10.5% | Oct 23, 2023 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Turits | $400 | $328 | +2.8% | Oct 20, 2023 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $400 | $331.32 | +2.8% | Oct 19, 2023 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Yun Kim | $425 | $331.65 | +9.2% | Oct 17, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $400 | $320.92 | +2.8% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Bernstein | Mark Moerdler | $400 | $328.65 | +2.8% | Sep 20, 2023 |
| UBS | Karl Keirstead | $400 | $328.36 | +2.8% | Aug 29, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Timothy Horan | $410 | $323.18 | +5.4% | Aug 25, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $400 | $334.79 | +2.8% | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $415 | $348.07 | +6.7% | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $220 | $335.05 | -43.5% | Jun 29, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Sami Badri | $420 | $329.63 | +7.9% | May 31, 2023 |
| Oppenheimer | Timothy Horan | $330 | $304.4 | -15.2% | May 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $335 | $295.16 | -13.9% | Apr 26, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $315 | $288.8 | -19.0% | Apr 17, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $307 | $291.37 | -21.1% | Apr 6, 2023 |
| Needham | Rajvindra Gill | $270 | $272.29 | -30.6% | Mar 22, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Rishi Jaluria | $285 | $280.93 | -26.8% | Mar 17, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $265 | $252.6 | -31.9% | Feb 21, 2023 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $273.68 | -16.5% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $267.56 | -25.5% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $280 | $256.77 | -28.0% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $247 | $228.12 | -36.5% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $227.12 | -28.0% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $115 | $227.81 | -70.4% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| D.A. Davidson | Gil Luria | $270 | $223.87 | -30.6% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $239.58 | -35.7% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Macquarie | Sarah Hindlian | $234 | $242.98 | -39.9% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $300 | $231.32 | -22.9% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | James Cordwell | $290 | $231.32 | -25.5% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $296 | $250.66 | -23.9% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Rishi Jaluria | $310 | $231.32 | -20.3% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $270 | $231.32 | -30.6% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $285 | $231.32 | -26.8% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Andrew Marok | $280 | $250.66 | -28.0% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $265 | $250.66 | -31.9% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $300 | $250.66 | -22.9% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $270 | $231.32 | -30.6% | Oct 26, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $290 | $250.66 | -25.5% | Oct 25, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $320 | $242.12 | -17.8% | Oct 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $315 | $237.53 | -19.0% | Oct 17, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $275 | $229.25 | -29.3% | Oct 11, 2022 |
| MoffettNathanson | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $240.08 | -26.8% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $292 | $287.02 | -25.0% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $276.41 | -29.3% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $264.24 | -17.8% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $251.9 | -15.2% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $251.9 | -21.6% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $251.9 | -22.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $251.9 | -17.8% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $251.9 | -22.9% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $330 | $251.9 | -15.2% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $305 | $251.6 | -21.6% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $350 | $257.56 | -10.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $350 | $260.36 | -10.0% | Jul 25, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $262.86 | -15.2% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $256.52 | -12.6% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $254.25 | -15.2% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $312 | $256.72 | -19.8% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Turits | $330 | $256.72 | -15.2% | Jul 16, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $354 | $254.08 | -9.0% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Redburn Partners | Alex Haissl | $370 | $259.58 | -4.9% | Jul 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $320 | $264.89 | -17.8% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Raimo Lenschow | $335 | $252.99 | -13.9% | Jun 11, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $345 | $264.79 | -11.3% | Jun 10, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $320 | $270.02 | -17.8% | Jun 4, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gregg Moskowitz | $350 | $273.18 | -10.0% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Rishi Jaluria | $200 | $259.62 | -48.6% | May 24, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $325 | $259.8 | -16.5% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $340 | $252.56 | -12.6% | May 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $350 | $277.52 | -10.0% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brad Zelnick | $350 | $289.28 | -10.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Alex Zukin | $350 | $283.22 | -10.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Blair Abernethy | $349 | $283.22 | -10.3% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $400 | $283.22 | +2.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $364 | $270.22 | -6.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $400 | $283.22 | +2.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $364 | $283.22 | -6.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $330 | $283.22 | -15.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $276.82 | -12.6% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $352 | $270.22 | -9.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $365 | $270.22 | -6.2% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Philip Winslow | $400 | $280.72 | +2.8% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $340 | $280.72 | -12.6% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $400 | $274.03 | +2.8% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $355 | $284.05 | -8.8% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Keith Weiss | $372 | $279.83 | -4.4% | Apr 16, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brad Reback | $380 | $289.86 | -2.3% | Mar 5, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Joseph Bonner | $371 | $305.94 | -4.7% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Tigress Financial | Ivan Feinseth | $411 | $305.94 | +5.6% | Feb 5, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Mark Moerdler | $365 | $308.26 | -6.2% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Tyler Radke | $386 | $296.1 | -0.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Rishi Jaluria | $380 | $296.1 | -2.3% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Karl Keirstead | $360 | $296.1 | -7.5% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Philip Winslow | $400 | $296.1 | +2.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Mark Murphy | $320 | $296.1 | -17.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Turrin | $425 | $296.1 | +9.2% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Oppenheimer | Timothy Horan | $340 | $296.1 | -12.6% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Wedbush | Daniel Ives | $375 | $296.1 | -3.6% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Keith Bachman | $355 | $296.1 | -8.8% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Brent Bracelin | $352 | $296.1 | -9.5% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Kirk Materne | $370 | $296.1 | -4.9% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Brad Zelnick | $390 | $287.89 | +0.2% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kash Rangan | $400 | $295.76 | +2.8% | Jan 23, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Derrick Wood | $360 | $300.98 | -7.5% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Brent Thill | $400 | $313.88 | +2.8% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| SMBC Nikko | Steven Koenig | $410 | $326.61 | +5.4% | Dec 21, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Turits | $365 | $306.93 | -6.2% | Oct 25, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Alex Zukin | $315 | $284.56 | -19.0% | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Cross Research | Shannon Cross | $300 | $263.48 | -22.9% | Jun 25, 2021 |
| KGI Securities | Freddy Chen | $300 | $245.97 | -22.9% | Jun 1, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Robert Majek | $290 | $252.5 | -25.5% | Apr 28, 2021 |
| BNP Paribas | Stefan Slowinski | $330 | $255.09 | -15.2% | Apr 22, 2021 |
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Stock move
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Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
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Subsequent drift
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Revenue grew from $81.3B in Q2 to $82.9B in Q3, with cloud revenue rising from $51.5B to $54.5B. AI ARR crossed $37B, up 123% YoY. Microsoft 365 Copilot seats grew 250% YoY to over 20M paid seats. The capex outlook shifted from 'decreasing' in Q2 to 'increasing' in Q3, with Q4 capex guidance above $40B and FY2026 capex targeted at $190B. The Maya 200 AI accelerator is now live in Iowa and Arizona data centers. Management introduced usage-based pricing for GitHub Copilot effective June 1, signaling a strategic shift toward blended seat-plus-consumption models.
Guidance delta
Q4 FY2026 revenue guidance of $86.7-87.8B implies roughly 14-15% YoY growth, with capex guidance exceeding $40B, a notable step-up from Q2's $37.5B. Prior Q3 guidance of $80.65-81.75B was exceeded, with actual revenue of $82.9B beating the high end. FY2026 capex target of $190B represents a significant acceleration. Guidance sentiment was maintained, but the capex outlook shifted from decreasing to increasing.
Key takeaways
- Record Q3 revenue of $82.9B beat consensus of $81.4B by 1.8%; EPS of $4.27 beat estimates of $4.06 by 5.2%.
- Cloud revenue reached $54.5B, up from $51.5B in Q2, with AI ARR exceeding $37B (+123% YoY).
- Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 20M paid seats, growing 250% YoY.
- Capex guidance rose to over $40B for Q4 and $190B for FY2026, a significant acceleration from prior quarters.
- Q4 revenue guidance of $86.7-87.8B implies continued double-digit growth despite macro uncertainty.
- The market initially reacted negatively with a 4.9% abnormal decline, but the stock subsequently drifted 10.4% higher.
Management priorities
- Scaling AI infrastructure with additional data centers and accelerator deployments globally.
- Transitioning to blended seat-plus-consumption pricing across productivity, coding, and security workloads.
- Expanding custom silicon with Maya 200 accelerator and Cobalt CPU deployments.
- Enhancing the Agent 365 control plane for agent governance, identity, and security.
- Deepening partnerships with OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and Anthropic across the AI stack.
Related earnings events
TechnologyINTC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Intel Beats on AI Strength, but Foundry Losses and Rising Capex Drag SharesMU · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026Micron Crushes Q3 on AI Memory Demand, Guides to $50B Q4 With 86% MarginsORCL · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026Oracle Q4 FY26: Revenue Up 21%, RPO Hits $638B, but $70B CapEx Plan Pressures Shares
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T00:31:06.514206+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T00:31:06.511382+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.