Merck & Co., Inc. · MRK · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Merck Q2: Growth Holds as Pipeline Milestones Accelerate

The Q2 analysis supports the view that resilient demand and pipeline progress can underpin Merck's growth narrative: revenue increased 5%, full-year revenue guidance was raised, and multiple launches and late-stage milestones advanced. The evidence is not one-directional, with access, regulatory, competitive, and one-time-charge risks still material.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $369.24B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $-0.13 Consensus $-0.27
EPS surprise +51.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $16.61B Consensus $16.37B
Revenue surprise +1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.2% Event window
SPY move +1.8% Same window
Abnormal move -1.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +17.1% Up to 20 sessions
MRKSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, the analysis points to a stronger set of realized pipeline milestones: LIPFENDRA approval, positive Phase III sac-TMT data, completion of the Terns acquisition, and additional KEYTRUDA and WELIREG approvals or extensions. Guidance moved from a prior-quarter raised stance to a further raised and narrower full-year revenue range.

Guidance delta

Management raised and narrowed full-year revenue guidance to $66.3 billion-$67.3 billion.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 revenue was described as $16.6 billion, up 5%, led by oncology and animal health.
  • Management highlighted approvals and launches including LIPFENDRA, KEYTRUDA extensions, and a WELIREG adjuvant indication.
  • Positive Phase III sac-TMT data and the Terns acquisition strengthened the late-stage pipeline.
  • The quarter’s outlook combines operating growth with meaningful clinical, regulatory, and access execution risk.

Management priorities

  • Advance sac-TMT readouts and additional indications.
  • Progress Phase III tulisokibart studies and use AVANZAR data to guide biomarker strategy.
  • Prepare LIPFENDRA launches in the EU and China and pursue its stated access plans.
  • Execute the Terns acquisition integration and continue the stated share-repurchase program.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MRK EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $1.88 Q1 '24 actual $2.07, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2.15 Q2 '24 actual $2.28, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.50 Q3 '24 actual $1.57, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.03 Q2 '25 actual $2.13, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.36 Q3 '25 actual $2.58, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.01 Q4 '25 actual $2.04, beat Q1 '26 estimate $-1.47 Q1 '26 actual $-1.28, beat Q2 '26 estimate $-0.27 Q2 '26 actual $-0.13, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.22 Q4 '26 estimate $1.96 Q1 '27 estimate $2.21
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy38 ratings
Bullish2668.4%
Neutral1129.0%
Bearish12.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$150.91Current
$80Low
$136.49Average
$180High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
HSBC Buy BuyMaintainSep 10, 2026
Leerink Partners Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 9, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainSep 8, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wolfe Research Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 25, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 25, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainAug 21, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 20, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform OutperformDowngradeAug 20, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight Equal WeightUpgradeAug 20, 2026
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 20, 2026
Daiwa Capital Outperform NeutralUpgradeAug 12, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 13, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 6, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainJun 30, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJun 30, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainMar 20, 2026
Freedom Broker Hold HoldMaintainFeb 9, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainJan 20, 2026
Deutsche Bank Hold HoldMaintainNov 18, 2025
Berenberg Hold BuyDowngradeSep 17, 2025
Truist Securities Hold BuyDowngradeJan 8, 2025
Societe Generale Sell HoldDowngradeMar 11, 2024
Atlantic Equities Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 1, 2023
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainMar 7, 2023
SVB Leerink Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 3, 2023
Erste Group Buy HoldUpgradeAug 25, 2022
Cowen & Co. Market Perform Market PerformMaintainJun 27, 2022
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainMay 1, 2019
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainOct 29, 2018
DZ Bank Buy HoldUpgradeFeb 13, 2018
Leerink Swann Market Perform Market PerformMaintainFeb 6, 2018
Jefferies Hold UnderperformUpgradeOct 31, 2017
Bernstein Outperform Market PerformUpgradeJan 5, 2015
MainFirst Bank AG Outperform UnderperformUpgradeJul 28, 2014
Mainfirst Outperform UnderperformUpgradeJul 28, 2014
MKM Partners Buy BuyMaintainApr 14, 2014
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $150.91. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Berenberg BankLuisa Hector$137$144.71 -9.2%Sep 11, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$172$147.6 +14.0%Sep 10, 2026
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$161$148.49 +6.7%Sep 9, 2026
GuggenheimVamil Divan$170$150.34 +12.6%Sep 8, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$170$152.34 +12.6%Sep 4, 2026
Argus ResearchJasper Hellweg$170$153.61 +12.6%Aug 25, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAlexandria Hammond$180$150.69 +19.3%Aug 25, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$160$149.25 +6.0%Aug 21, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$170$149.65 +12.6%Aug 20, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$175$152.22 +16.0%Aug 20, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$150$152.22 -0.6%Aug 20, 2026
UBSMatthew Weston$150$152.22 -0.6%Aug 20, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$179$152.22 +18.6%Aug 19, 2026
DaiwaAnalyst unavailable$143$130.45 -5.2%Aug 12, 2026
Argus ResearchJasper Hellweg$145$130.9 -3.9%Aug 11, 2026
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$116$130.4 -23.1%Aug 5, 2026
GuggenheimVamil Divan$146$128.04 -3.3%Aug 5, 2026
BarclaysEmily Field$150$131.84 -0.6%Jul 29, 2026
BernsteinCourtney Breen$105$132.34 -30.4%Jul 27, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$142$124.08 -5.9%Jul 13, 2026
GuggenheimVamil Divan$145$123.54 -3.9%Jul 13, 2026
HSBCRajesh Kumar$150$126.05 -0.6%Jul 6, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$141$129.38 -6.6%Jun 30, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$155$129.38 +2.7%Jun 29, 2026
GuggenheimVamil Divan$140$115.21 -7.2%Jun 2, 2026
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$112$112.47 -25.8%May 1, 2026
Wells FargoMohit Bansal$150$116.22 -0.6%Mar 12, 2026
RBC CapitalTrung Huynh$142$123.93 -5.9%Feb 24, 2026
Deutsche BankJames Shin$150$121.53 -0.6%Feb 13, 2026
Goldman SachsAsad Haider$133$115.86 -11.9%Feb 4, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$135$115.86 -10.5%Feb 4, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$100$115.86 -33.7%Feb 4, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$136$116.37 -9.9%Feb 3, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$116$107.4 -23.1%Jan 27, 2026
Wolfe ResearchAnalyst unavailable$135$108.59 -10.5%Jan 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$130$110.96 -13.9%Jan 7, 2026
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$130$99.21 -13.9%Dec 18, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$102$100.06 -32.4%Dec 12, 2025
HSBCRajesh Kumar$120$96.89 -20.5%Dec 10, 2025
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$122$100.89 -19.2%Dec 5, 2025
ScotiabankLouise Chen$120$101.88 -20.5%Dec 4, 2025
Goldman SachsAsad Haider$120$101.83 -20.5%Dec 2, 2025
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$100$84.65 -33.7%Nov 3, 2025
Berenberg BankLuisa Hector$90$81.14 -40.4%Sep 17, 2025
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$98$84.39 -35.1%Jul 10, 2025
BMO CapitalEvan Seigerman$82$82.74 -45.7%Apr 25, 2025
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$106$90.74 -29.8%Feb 5, 2025
BernsteinCourtney Breen$110$100.69 -27.1%Dec 2, 2024
JefferiesAkash Tewari$148$98.36 -1.9%Nov 15, 2024
BMO CapitalEvan David Seigerman$136$101.88 -9.9%Nov 1, 2024
UBSTrung Huynh$136$108.88 -9.9%Oct 9, 2024
BarclaysCarter Gould$140$109.77 -7.2%Oct 7, 2024
JefferiesAkash Tewari$147$113.49 -2.6%Aug 15, 2024
UBSColin Bristow$142$112.89 -5.9%Jul 31, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesGeoff Meacham$145$115.21 -3.9%Jul 31, 2024
Wells FargoMohit Bansal$140$131.05 -7.2%Jun 12, 2024
BMO CapitalEvan David Seigerman$148$127.71 -1.9%May 30, 2024
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$142$130.81 -5.9%Mar 27, 2024
JefferiesAkash Tewari$145$130.18 -3.9%Mar 27, 2024
Wells FargoMohit Bansal$135$130.19 -10.5%Mar 27, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsEvan David Seigerman$132$101.44 -12.5%Nov 22, 2023
OppenheimerJay Olson$147$56.34 -2.6%Apr 12, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$120$103.28 -20.5%Feb 3, 2023
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$99$103.46 -34.4%Feb 3, 2023
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$125$110.62 -17.2%Jan 3, 2023
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$135$109.2 -10.5%Dec 19, 2022
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$120$102.31 -20.5%Nov 18, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$110$86.64 -27.1%Sep 30, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$109$87.34 -27.8%Sep 12, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$101$88.62 -33.1%Jul 29, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$92$89.26 -39.0%Jul 29, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$105$89.94 -30.4%Jul 29, 2022
UBSAnalyst unavailable$98$94.34 -35.1%Jul 18, 2022
Atlantic EquitiesAnalyst unavailable$110$93.6 -27.1%Jul 13, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$88$93.01 -41.7%Jul 8, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$87$88.62 -42.3%Apr 29, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$102$88.58 -32.4%Apr 29, 2022
Leerink PartnersAnalyst unavailable$97$86.46 -35.7%Apr 21, 2022
BarclaysCarter Gould$97$86.91 -35.7%Apr 16, 2022
Morgan StanleyTerence Flynn$80$86.63 -47.0%Apr 11, 2022
BMO CapitalEvan David Seigerman$87$87.68 -42.3%Apr 10, 2022
Goldman SachsChris Shibutani$93$75.02 -38.4%Dec 17, 2021
UBSColin Bristow$76$72.09 -49.6%Dec 13, 2021
CitigroupAndrew Baum$85$73.53 -43.7%Nov 29, 2021
Argus ResearchDavid Toung$110$86.25 -27.1%Nov 1, 2021
BarclaysCarter Gould$94$86.25 -37.7%Nov 1, 2021
Bank of America SecuritiesGeoff Meacham$86$86.45 -43.0%Oct 29, 2021
Wolfe ResearchTim Anderson$94$86.45 -37.7%Oct 29, 2021
RBC CapitalDaniel Busby$80$74.86 -47.0%Jul 29, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Merck & Co., Inc. is a global healthcare leader with operations spanning two core divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical segment is dedicated to human health, offering a broad spectrum of medicinal products. These cover crucial therapeutic areas such as oncology, acute hospital care, immunology, neuroscience, virology, cardiovascular conditions, and diabetes. This division also develops vital preventive vaccines for pediatric, adolescent, and adult populations. Meanwhile, the Animal Health segment focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of veterinary medications, vaccines, and comprehensive health management solutions for animals. This division further provides innovative digital products designed for animal identification, traceability, and continuous monitoring.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T20:15:44.042381+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T23:10:55.638704+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T23:10:55.634970+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.