Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy28 ratings
Bullish1967.9%
Neutral932.1%
Bearish00.0%
MPLX Lp · MPLX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
MPLX sees second-half growth ramp as major projects enter service
MPLX’s Q1 update supports a project-led growth case: management expects major capacity additions to accelerate EBITDA in the second half of 2026 while maintaining its distribution-growth target. The thesis depends on project execution, volume recovery and distribution coverage amid commodity-price and operating-cost pressures.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$58.30B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.90
Consensus $1.05
EPS surprise
-14.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.81B
Consensus $3.09B
Revenue surprise
-9.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.7%
Up to 20 sessions
MPLXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MPLX FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MPLX fall 2.6% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in MPLX's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for MPLX after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Secretariat I entered service in Q1, Titan treated 150 MMcf/d, and Pelham began operating. Management said the back-half EBITDA ramp is expected as projects advance, while reaffirming its capital-allocation strategy despite reducing Q1 share buybacks to $50 million.
Guidance delta
Maintained. Management reiterated mid-single-digit growth guidance, expects EBITDA to accelerate in the second half of 2026 as projects come online, and remains committed to a 12.5% annual distribution increase target for 2026–27 with coverage targeted above 1.3x.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA was $1.7 billion in Q1, and MPLX returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders.
- Management expects a second-half EBITDA ramp as Secretariat I, Harmon Creek III and Titan II contribute.
- The 12.5% annual distribution-increase target for 2026–27 is unchanged; management targets distribution coverage above 1.3x.
- The Q1 share buyback was reduced to $50 million, while management said the broader capital-allocation strategy remains unchanged.
Management priorities
- Bring Harmon Creek III online in Q3 2026 and complete Titan II by year-end 2026.
- Advance the Blackcomb pipeline and BanGL NGL pipeline toward Q4 2026 service.
- Deploy the organic growth capital plan while maintaining the distribution-growth target and coverage.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$56.55Current
$34Low
$49.5Average
$66High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 13, 2019 |
| Scotiabank | Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 14, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 11, 2019 |
| BMO Capital | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jun 10, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 18, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2018 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 1, 2017 |
| Mizuho | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 4, 2017 |
| FBR Capital | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2016 |
| Ladenburg Thalmann | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 3, 2016 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $56.55. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $64 | $58.4 | +13.2% | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $59.79 | +16.7% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $63 | $59.29 | +11.4% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Praneeth Satish | $63 | $60.51 | +11.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $55.52 | +7.9% | May 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $55.66 | +2.6% | May 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $55.88 | +11.4% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $59 | $56.38 | +4.3% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $59 | $58.9 | +4.3% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $60 | $53.7 | +6.1% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $60 | $50.33 | +6.1% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $53 | $50.66 | -6.3% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Spiro Dounis | $44 | $51.24 | -22.2% | Jun 5, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Blum | $54 | $46.41 | -4.5% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $43 | $44.47 | -24.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $49 | $44.05 | -13.4% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $45 | $41.81 | -20.4% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $33.86 | -38.1% | Feb 7, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $34.92 | -27.5% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $33.77 | -27.5% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $33.5 | $31.75 | -40.8% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| US Capital Advisors | James Carreker | $34 | $31.25 | -39.9% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.99 | -29.3% | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $37 | $32.59 | -34.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $32.47 | -27.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $32.74 | -31.0% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $34.82 | -31.0% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timm Schneider | $36 | $30.9 | -36.3% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $37 | $29.97 | -34.6% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Michael Lapides | $35 | $29.06 | -38.1% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Spiro M. Dounis | $34 | $26.35 | -39.9% | May 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MPLX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMPLX LP, incorporated in 2012 and headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, with MPLX GP LLC serving as its general partner. The company is a prominent owner and operator of midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily across the United States. Its business is segmented into Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. MPLX's extensive operations involve the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas, alongside the gathering, transportation, fractionation, exchange, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids.…
Historical context
All MPLX earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.1% | -0.7% | MPC Posts Record Q3 Utilization and Redirects Asset-Sale Proceeds to Growth |
| FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.4% | -3.7% | FANG Q3: Permian focus, low reinvestment and recovery initiatives |
| VNOM Viper Energy, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.9% | -2.6% | VNOM raises FY2026 production outlook after strong Q3 output and acquisitions |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.2% | +3.5% | Williams posts record Q3 EBITDA; holds 2026 guidance |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ANETFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+11.1% EPS+9.9% move
- FTSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+4.8% EPS+0.7% move
- MPLXFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+1.8% EPS-2.4% move
- AMEFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+4.7% EPS+2.8% move
- BALLFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+2.8% EPS-7.1% move
- RACEFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+5.6% EPS+2.9% move
Missed on EPS
- TLNFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-65.4% EPS+7.3% move
- APOSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-5.5% EPS-0.5% move
- TRIFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-9.0% EPS-9.9% move
- APOFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-5.5% EPS-4.9% move
- FMSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-1.7% EPS-3.9% move
- PSFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026-1.5% EPS+0.1% move
Get the MPLX recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-04T13:10:43.313131+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-04T13:10:43.310498+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.