Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold46 ratings
Bullish1328.3%
Neutral2656.5%
Bearish715.2%
The Mosaic Company · MOS · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Mosaic sees constructive fertilizer markets amid operational risks
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive Mosaic operating outlook: strong fertilizer margins, tight phosphate supply, cost reduction, and project execution are positives, but production turnarounds, foreign exchange, tariffs, geopolitics, and Brazil credit risk remain material offsets.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$5.98B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.53
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $2.92B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-4.7%
Event window
SPY move
+1.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
7.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.9%
Up to 20 sessions
MOSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MOS FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove MOS's -4.7% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in MOS's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MOS after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted from Q3 disruption resilience and year-end phosphate run-rate execution to Q4 margin strength, progress on cost reduction, strategic portfolio optimization, and 2025 project and capacity plans.
Guidance delta
Management's guidance sentiment was maintained. The call analysis points to constructive agricultural markets and improved production volumes in 2025, while flagging weather, foreign-exchange, tariff, and geopolitical risks.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted Q4 net income of $169 million and adjusted EBITDA of $594 million, supported by potash and phosphate margins.
- The company said its $150 million cost-reduction target was on track, with about half already realized.
- Mosaic is advancing portfolio actions and projects while monitoring production turnarounds, Brazil, foreign exchange, and possible tariffs.
Management priorities
- Restore phosphate capacity through turnarounds at Bartow and New Wales.
- Complete the Hydrofluid project and one-million-ton blending plant in 2025.
- Expand Mosaic Biosciences products and acreage while evaluating non-core assets.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$17.92Current
$22Low
$34.66Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 20, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 27, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Jul 26, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 27, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2023 |
| VTB Capital | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Nov 25, 2020 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 23, 2020 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Apr 9, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 7, 2019 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 5, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2018 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 17, 2017 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | May 9, 2017 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Societe Generale | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2016 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| BGC FInancial | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | May 22, 2014 |
| RS Platou Markets | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2014 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 22, 2013 |
| PiperJaffray | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2012 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 14, 2012 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Ameriprise Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $17.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.95 | +22.8% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $18.85 | +22.8% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $25 | $21.07 | +39.5% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $25 | $22.71 | +39.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $22.44 | +45.1% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $21.73 | +67.4% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $21.67 | +73.0% | May 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $30 | $21.58 | +67.4% | May 19, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $21.76 | +45.1% | May 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $22 | $22.78 | +22.8% | May 14, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $21.64 | +39.5% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Lucas Beaumont | $23 | $21.71 | +28.3% | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $21.79 | +33.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.56 | +50.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $25 | $24.11 | +39.5% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $23.96 | +84.2% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $27 | $28.16 | +50.7% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $29 | $26.35 | +61.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Kristen Owen | $35 | $26.54 | +95.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $26.21 | +95.3% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.73 | +84.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $27 | $23.5 | +50.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $25.71 | +84.2% | Nov 12, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $25.86 | +100.9% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $25.56 | +78.6% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $28.98 | +123.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $34 | $29.29 | +89.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.79 | +78.6% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.35 | +123.2% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $30.77 | +67.4% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $33.44 | +89.7% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.79 | +145.5% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $34.83 | +145.5% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $42 | $33.68 | +134.4% | May 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $40 | $32.95 | +123.2% | May 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $30 | $27.48 | +67.4% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $23.33 | +73.0% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $23.33 | +56.3% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $26 | $23.33 | +45.1% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $26 | $25.84 | +45.1% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $44 | $27.05 | +145.5% | Nov 13, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $38 | $25.68 | +112.1% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $32 | $27.7 | +78.6% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $35 | $30.5 | +95.3% | Jul 18, 2024 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $30 | $27.03 | +67.4% | Jul 9, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $28 | $28.76 | +56.3% | Jun 11, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $32 | $29.54 | +78.6% | May 13, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $29 | $29.72 | +61.8% | May 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Andrew Wong | $32 | $28.68 | +78.6% | May 6, 2024 |
| CIBC | Jacob Bout | $36 | $29.09 | +100.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Edlain Rodriguez | $33 | $28.41 | +84.2% | May 3, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $35 | $32.89 | +95.3% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $44.64 | +201.3% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.41 | +206.9% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $60 | $43.82 | +234.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $62.49 | +396.7% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $75.77 | +374.3% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $80 | $61.14 | +346.4% | Mar 7, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $49 | $45.25 | +173.4% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Berenberg Bank | Sebastian Bray | $50 | $45.25 | +179.0% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Chris Parkinson | $59 | $45.1 | +229.2% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| UBS | John Roberts CFA | $53 | $45.1 | +195.8% | Feb 23, 2022 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $43 | $39.31 | +140.0% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $49 | $29.39 | +173.4% | Jul 16, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $45 | $34.61 | +151.1% | May 5, 2021 |
| VTB Capital | Elena Sakhnova | $32 | $34.88 | +78.6% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MOS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOperating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product.…
Historical context
All MOS earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA Alcoa Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.5% | +7.2% | Alcoa: Strong Q3 execution, with safety and transaction risks ahead |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-13T00:00:14.471520+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-19T23:10:44.164195+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-19T23:10:44.160619+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-19. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.