Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish1743.6%
Neutral1641.0%
Bearish615.4%
Molina Healthcare, Inc. · MOH · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Molina Healthcare Raises 2026 EPS Guidance on Duals Strength Despite Marketplace Losses
Molina Healthcare's Q2 2026 results mark a shift from cautious to confident. After maintaining guidance in Q1, management raised full-year EPS guidance from at least $5.00 to at least $5.25, driven by Medicare dual-eligible products that contributed $1.25 per share with a 1.4% pretax margin. Medicaid margins appear to be stabilizing at a 92.7% MCR with a 5% medical cost trend, supporting management's view that 2026 is a trough year. However, the stock fell 9.7% in the reaction window (vs. SPY -1.2%), with a further 2.9% drift lower, as investors weighed a $0.75 per-share Marketplace loss from adverse acuity mix, a $1.5 billion near-term margin drag from the Florida CMS contract, and the reality that managed Medicaid remains underfunded by roughly 300 basis points. The path to $64 billion in premium revenue by 2029 through RFP wins, M&A, and AI-driven efficiency is ambitious but…
Reported After market closeNYSEHealthcare
$10.16B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.51
Consensus $1.39
EPS surprise
+8.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$10.87B
Consensus $10.83B
Revenue surprise
+0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-9.7%
Event window
SPY move
-1.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.9%
Up to 20 sessions
MOHSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MOH FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MOH fall 9.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MOH's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MOH after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.51 beat consensus by 8.6% ($1.39 estimate) on $10.87B premium revenue (slightly above $10.83B estimate). Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was raised from at least $5.00 to at least $5.25. Medicare dual-eligible products contributed $1.25 per share with a 1.4% pretax margin, exceeding expectations. The Marketplace segment posted a $0.75 per-share loss from adverse member acuity and high-cost drug claims without commensurate risk-adjustment scores, prompting a planned $1B footprint reduction in 2027. The Florida CMS contract has a $6B annual run rate with a $1.5B short-term margin drag expected to reverse after year one. The stock fell 9.7% in the reaction window on 1.9x baseline volume, with a further 2.9% subsequent drift, despite the beat and raised guidance.
Guidance delta
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance raised from at least $5.00 to at least $5.25. Full-year premium revenue outlook reaffirmed at approximately $42B. 2027 premium revenue projected at $46.5B, with a longer-term target of $64B by 2029. Guidance sentiment shifted from maintained (Q1) to raised (Q2).
Key takeaways
- Q2 EPS of $1.51 beat estimates by 8.6%, driven primarily by Medicare dual-eligible outperformance
- Full-year EPS guidance raised to at least $5.25, up from at least $5.00
- Medicaid margins stabilizing with 92.7% MCR and 5% medical cost trend; 2026 viewed as a trough year
- Marketplace segment lost $0.75 per share on adverse acuity mix; Molina will cut approximately $1B from its footprint in 2027
- Florida CMS contract carries a $6B run rate with a $1.5B near-term margin drag expected to reverse after year one
- Long-term target of $64B premium revenue by 2029 via RFP wins, accretive M&A, and AI-driven cost efficiencies
Management priorities
- Scale Medicare dual-eligible business while exiting the MAPD product in 2027
- Reduce Marketplace exposure by approximately $1B in 2027
- Pursue opportunistic, accretive acquisitions to add scale
- Deploy AI to improve administrative efficiency and drive G&A leverage
- Achieve $64B in premium revenue by 2029
- Integrate the $6B Florida CMS contract while managing near-term margin drag
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$198.95Current
$124Low
$212.88Average
$400High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 17, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 14, 2022 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2020 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 4, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 31, 2017 |
| Stifel | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 31, 2017 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 8, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| Leerink Swann | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Sep 18, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2014 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2014 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2014 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Feb 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $198.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $163 | $209.36 | -18.1% | Oct 26, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $222 | $208.11 | +11.6% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $198 | $216.64 | -0.5% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $216.64 | +13.1% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $178 | $216.64 | -10.5% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Jason Twizell | $255 | $216.64 | +28.2% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $220 | $216.64 | +10.6% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $199.48 | +10.6% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $218 | $195.8 | +9.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $200.29 | -9.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $242.88 | +25.7% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $242.88 | +15.6% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $233.31 | +18.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $233.31 | +43.8% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $248 | $233.43 | +24.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $184 | $232.9 | -7.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $197.42 | +8.6% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $190.86 | +8.1% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $184.82 | -16.1% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $199 | $175.59 | +0.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $181.26 | +1.5% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $186.49 | +3.0% | May 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $163 | $185.94 | -18.1% | May 11, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $176.89 | -9.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $159 | $175.94 | -20.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | George Hill | $129 | $168.3 | -35.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $168.09 | -9.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $169.9 | -26.6% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $174.51 | -19.1% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $173 | $148.78 | -13.0% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $141 | $148.24 | -29.1% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $134.1 | -27.1% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $122.65 | -37.7% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $128.47 | -45.2% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $133 | $127.53 | -33.1% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $126.71 | -27.1% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $128.79 | -27.6% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $220 | $183.5 | +10.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $208 | $184.73 | +4.5% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $184.04 | +12.6% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $178.46 | -17.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $163.42 | -19.6% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $164.13 | -12.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $158 | $161 | -20.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $161 | -14.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $161 | -9.5% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $167 | $161 | -16.1% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $163.73 | -17.1% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $194.37 | +5.6% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $193.76 | +2.5% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $207 | $194.27 | +4.0% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $200.57 | +16.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $330 | $221.55 | +65.9% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $266 | $228.58 | +33.7% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $364 | $297 | +83.0% | Jun 9, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $375 | $335.5 | +88.5% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $372 | $311.89 | +87.0% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $376 | $302.84 | +89.0% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $331 | $275 | +66.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $360 | $346.97 | +80.9% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $297 | $286.9 | +49.3% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $400 | $292.84 | +101.1% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $405 | $315 | +103.6% | May 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $430 | $367.41 | +116.1% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $410 | $376.57 | +106.1% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $420 | $398.14 | +111.1% | Feb 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $318.92 | +88.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $318.92 | +70.9% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $327.5 | +73.4% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $366 | $318.19 | +84.0% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $319.47 | +91.0% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $301 | $312.59 | +51.3% | May 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $311 | $306.08 | +56.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stephens | Scott Fidel | $300 | $295.72 | +50.8% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Barclays | Steven Valiquette | $340 | $295.72 | +70.9% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $253 | $244.16 | +27.2% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MOH the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMolina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare programs, in addition to state health insurance marketplaces. Its operations are strategically segmented into four main divisions: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and a general "Other" category. By the close of 2021, specifically December 31st, Molina Healthcare's network extended to approximately 5.2 million members across 18 states, all of whom qualified for Medicaid, Medicare, or other government-sponsored healthcare plans. Established in 1980, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Long Beach, California.
Historical context
All MOH earningsHealthcare peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +19.1% | +3.8% | Merck Q3: Guidance Raised as Pipeline Progress Continues |
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| THC Tenet Healthcare Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +0.8% | Tenet raises EBITDA outlook as USPI and high-acuity care lead growth |
| EHC Encompass Health Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +11.8% | +7.7% | Encompass Health raises 2026 outlook as Q3 demand and margins strengthen |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +6.1% | Eli Lilly Q3: Incretin growth drives guidance raise |
| WST West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +7.7% | West Pharmaceutical raises 2026 guidance as HVP demand drives Q3 growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- WCCFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+23.0% EPS+5.6% move
- ASXFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+8.8% EPS+1.4% move
- GFLFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+2.2% EPS+3.3% move
- KIM-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+101.6% EPS— move
- MRKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+19.1% EPS+3.8% move
- DRSFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+30.0% EPS+11.7% move
Get the MOH recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T17:04:32.852325+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-31T01:23:16.182055+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T18:21:43.512725+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T18:21:43.510168+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.