Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish1743.6%
Neutral1641.0%
Bearish615.4%
Molina Healthcare, Inc. · MOH · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Molina cuts outlook as Marketplace utilization pressures earnings
The quarter weakens the case for near-term earnings resilience: Marketplace utilization and limited risk-corridor protection drove a large EPS miss and a lower outlook. The longer-term growth case rests on Medicaid and Medicare dual-eligible expansion, rate advocacy, cost controls, and disciplined M&A, but those drivers must offset medical-cost and membership pressure.
Reported After market closeNYSEHealthcare
$10.13B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.84
Consensus $3.97
EPS surprise
-53.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$11.48B
Consensus $11.29B
Revenue surprise
+1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-17.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-18.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
7.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-16.5%
Up to 20 sessions
MOHSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MOH FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MOH fall 17.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in MOH's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MOH after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from a $19 EPS floor to $14 full-year EPS guidance after Marketplace utilization ran higher than expected. The company also described a more cautious operating posture, including reducing Marketplace exposure toward breakeven in 2026 while pursuing Medicaid contracts, dual-eligible growth, and selected acquisitions.
Guidance delta
Management lowered full-year 2025 EPS guidance from $19 to $14 and projected a 91.3% medical cost ratio; fourth-quarter EPS was expected at $0.35.
Key takeaways
- The quarter missed expectations, driven mainly by unexpected Marketplace utilization and limited risk-corridor protection.
- Medicaid remains the core profit engine, but higher medical-cost trends and rate adequacy are important watchpoints.
- Management's 2026 plan emphasizes Medicaid contract wins, Medicare dual-eligible growth, and reducing Marketplace exposure toward breakeven.
Management priorities
- Pursue Medicaid contract opportunities, particularly in Georgia and Texas.
- Expand Medicare dual-eligible enrollment through FIDE/HIDE conversions.
- Reduce Marketplace exposure, target breakeven margins in 2026, and continue selective M&A and share repurchases.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$194.05Previous close
$109Low
$211.58Average
$400High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 22, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 17, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 14, 2022 |
| SVB Leerink | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2020 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2020 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 4, 2020 |
| CFRA | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 4, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| Mitsubishi UFJ | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2017 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 31, 2017 |
| Stifel | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | May 31, 2017 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | May 8, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| Leerink Swann | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Sep 18, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 27, 2014 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2014 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2014 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Feb 24, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $194.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $199.48 | +13.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $218 | $195.8 | +12.3% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $200.29 | -7.2% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $242.88 | +28.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $242.88 | +18.5% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $233.31 | +21.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $286 | $233.31 | +47.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ben Hendrix | $248 | $233.43 | +27.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $184 | $232.9 | -5.2% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $197.42 | +11.3% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $190.86 | +10.8% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $167 | $184.82 | -13.9% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $199 | $175.59 | +2.6% | May 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $181.26 | +4.1% | May 22, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $186.49 | +5.6% | May 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $163 | $185.94 | -16.0% | May 11, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $176.89 | -7.2% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $159 | $175.94 | -18.1% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | George Hill | $129 | $168.3 | -33.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $168.09 | -7.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $146 | $169.9 | -24.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $174.51 | -17.0% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $173 | $148.78 | -10.8% | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $141 | $148.24 | -27.3% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $134.1 | -25.3% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $124 | $122.65 | -36.1% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $128.47 | -43.8% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $133 | $127.53 | -31.5% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $126.71 | -25.3% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $128.79 | -25.8% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $220 | $183.5 | +13.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $208 | $184.73 | +7.2% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $184.04 | +15.4% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $178.46 | -15.5% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $163.42 | -17.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $164.13 | -9.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $158 | $161 | -18.6% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $161 | -12.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $161 | -7.2% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $167 | $161 | -13.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $163.73 | -15.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $194.37 | +8.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $204 | $193.76 | +5.1% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Scott Fidel | $207 | $194.27 | +6.7% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $200.57 | +19.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $330 | $221.55 | +70.1% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $266 | $228.58 | +37.1% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erin Wright | $364 | $297 | +87.6% | Jun 9, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $375 | $335.5 | +93.2% | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $372 | $311.89 | +91.7% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $376 | $302.84 | +93.8% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $331 | $275 | +70.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $360 | $346.97 | +85.5% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $297 | $286.9 | +53.1% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | David MacDonald | $400 | $292.84 | +106.1% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Michael Ha | $405 | $315 | +108.7% | May 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Mok | $430 | $367.41 | +121.6% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $410 | $376.57 | +111.3% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Stephen Baxter | $420 | $398.14 | +116.4% | Feb 15, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $375 | $318.92 | +93.2% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $318.92 | +75.2% | Jan 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $327.5 | +77.8% | Aug 26, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $366 | $318.19 | +88.6% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $319.47 | +95.8% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $301 | $312.59 | +55.1% | May 25, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $311 | $306.08 | +60.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Stephens | Scott Fidel | $300 | $295.72 | +54.6% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Barclays | Steven Valiquette | $340 | $295.72 | +75.2% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $253 | $244.16 | +30.4% | Apr 14, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MOH the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMolina Healthcare, Inc. offers comprehensive managed health care services, primarily targeting economically disadvantaged families and individuals. The company provides coverage through key government initiatives such as Medicaid and Medicare programs, in addition to state health insurance marketplaces. Its operations are strategically segmented into four main divisions: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and a general "Other" category. By the close of 2021, specifically December 31st, Molina Healthcare's network extended to approximately 5.2 million members across 18 states, all of whom qualified for Medicaid, Medicare, or other government-sponsored healthcare plans. Established in 1980, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Long Beach, California.
Historical context
All MOH earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.7% | -14.7% | CooperCompanies beats expectations as inventory reduction weighs on vision revenue |
| MDT Medtronic plc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +1.5% | Medtronic raises FY27 outlook as growth broadens across platforms |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the MOH recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T06:36:02.678811+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T06:36:02.675356+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.