Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1745.9%
Bearish12.7%
MGM Resorts International · MGM · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
MGM highlights Macau strength and BetMGM recovery despite Las Vegas risks
The call supports a constructive but conditional view: Macau momentum, BetMGM's recovery, convention demand, and completed renovations provide operating support, while Las Vegas leisure softness, renovation disruption, regulatory uncertainty, and competition limit confidence in a broad-based improvement.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$8.20B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.60
Consensus $0.64
EPS surprise
+150.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.61B
Consensus $4.50B
Revenue surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.9%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-4.9%
Up to 20 sessions
MGMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MGM FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MGM rise 3.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MGM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MGM after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the narrative shifted from stabilization and planned capital actions toward reported execution: Macau reached record EBITDAR and more than 16% market share, BetMGM delivered a $470 million EBITDA turnaround, MGM Grand renovations were completed, and management maintained its guidance sentiment. Capital spending was characterized as increasing rather than decreasing.
Guidance delta
Maintained versus the prior quarter, which was characterized as raised.
Key takeaways
- Macau delivered record EBITDAR and more than 16% market share, supporting the premium-mass strategy.
- BetMGM posted a $470 million EBITDA turnaround and distributed $135 million to MGM in Q4.
- Las Vegas growth is tied to conventions, group bookings, luxury events, and completed MGM Grand renovations.
- Strong cash generation supported share repurchases and continued investment in Osaka, Dubai, and technology.
Management priorities
- Expand BetMGM in Sweden and Brazil while continuing digital-platform investment.
- Advance MGM Osaka and Dubai development projects.
- Use technology initiatives such as digital check-in and an AI concierge to improve guest engagement.
- Maintain share repurchases and evaluate strategic investments or acquisitions using excess liquidity.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$31.86Current
$30Low
$50.19Average
$76High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| CBRE | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 22, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 30, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 21, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 2, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 3, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2015 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 9, 2014 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 19, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2013 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 9, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 19, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2013 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 21, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $31.86. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $55 | $37.85 | +72.6% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $55 | $43.64 | +72.6% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.2 | +66.4% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $43 | $46.57 | +35.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $46.28 | +50.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48.3 | $46.4 | +51.6% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.1 | +50.7% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $48.97 | +53.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $48.97 | +53.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.12 | +56.9% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| CBRE | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.36 | +56.9% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $55 | $38.45 | +72.6% | May 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $38.94 | +38.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $38 | $38.7 | +19.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $42 | $39.27 | +31.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $39.27 | +22.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $30 | $38.36 | -5.8% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $37.89 | +9.9% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $36.68 | +6.7% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $50 | $35.91 | +56.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $37 | $36.28 | +16.1% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $33 | $35.41 | +3.6% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $34.82 | +19.3% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $36.84 | +19.3% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $33 | $37.38 | +3.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $30.9 | +41.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $31.21 | +31.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $31 | $31.21 | -2.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $62 | $31.21 | +94.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $47 | $32.67 | +47.5% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $31.28 | +82.0% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $39 | $35.95 | +22.4% | Sep 11, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $44 | $39.52 | +38.1% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $46 | $39.99 | +44.4% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $38 | $37.93 | +19.3% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $45 | $30.77 | +41.2% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $39 | $33.23 | +22.4% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $50 | $33.85 | +56.9% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| CFRA | Zachary Warring | $42 | $36.87 | +31.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | George Choi | $55 | $41.41 | +72.6% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $52 | $38.68 | +63.2% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $43 | $36.29 | +35.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| BTIG | Clark Lampen | $52 | $42.33 | +63.2% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Jordan Bender | $58 | $41.04 | +82.0% | May 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $54 | $39.75 | +69.5% | May 2, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $57 | $39.75 | +78.9% | May 2, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Vitaly Umansky | $56 | $42.48 | +75.8% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $62 | $47.78 | +94.6% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $23.2 | $45.84 | -27.2% | Aug 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $40.98 | +35.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $37.08 | +56.9% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $58.5 | $31.06 | +83.6% | Sep 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $51 | $35.01 | +60.1% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $35.33 | +126.0% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $34.2 | +82.0% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $35 | $32.73 | +9.9% | Jul 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $28.68 | +53.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $30.36 | +75.8% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $30.03 | +72.6% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $40 | $27.95 | +25.5% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $34.15 | +50.7% | May 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.82 | +63.2% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.97 | +78.9% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $51 | $41.08 | +60.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.77 | +50.7% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Citigroup | George Choi | $57 | $47.07 | +78.9% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ben Combes | $76 | $47.07 | +138.5% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $59 | $40.96 | +85.2% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $48 | $47.01 | +50.7% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Vitaly Umansky | $58.9 | $43.09 | +84.9% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Joseph Greff | $52 | $42.66 | +63.2% | Jun 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MGM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMGM Resorts International, through its various divisions, manages and possesses casino, lodging, and entertainment complexes across the United States and Macau. The company's operations are segmented into three main areas: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its resort properties offer a comprehensive suite of amenities including gaming facilities, accommodation, convention spaces, dining options, entertainment venues, retail outlets, and more.…
Historical context
All MGM earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Get the MGM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T21:31:04.174663+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T21:31:04.171816+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.