MGM Resorts International · MGM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

MGM: Macau and BetMGM strength offset Las Vegas pressure

MGM's Q3 narrative was mixed: Las Vegas remained under pressure, but record Macau EBITDAR, cash-generative BetMGM operations and capital discipline support management's longer-term growth outlook. The key test is whether group and convention demand can stabilize Las Vegas while planned investments remain disciplined.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $7.67B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.24 Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise -35.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.25B Consensus $4.42B
Revenue surprise -3.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -1.6% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move -0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +14.9% Up to 20 sessions
MGMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management highlighted a $546 million Northfield Park sale, quarterly BetMGM cash distributions beginning in Q4, a yen-denominated credit facility for MGM Osaka, and the decision to exit the New York commercial license project. The analysis also points to stronger Macau premium offerings and a raised guidance sentiment.

Guidance delta

Management's guidance sentiment was raised; the supplied analysis does not specify a numerical change.

Key takeaways

  • Las Vegas remained pressured by lower occupancy and ADRs, while group and convention bookings showed signs of stabilization.
  • BetMGM delivered record cash flow and is expected to begin returning capital to MGM Resorts.
  • Macau posted record EBITDAR and introduced premium offerings including Alpha Gaming Club and Alpha Villas.
  • The Northfield Park sale and New York project exit point to greater capital discipline.
  • MGM continues to invest in Osaka, Marriott-driven room nights, digital expansion and an ARIA renovation.

Management priorities

  • Support Las Vegas stabilization through group and convention demand.
  • Expand BetMGM in Europe and Brazil while returning digital cash flow to shareholders.
  • Develop premium Macau offerings and continue the MGM Osaka project.
  • Maintain capital discipline, including potential share buybacks.
  • Begin the ARIA room-renovation project slated for November 2026.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MGM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.56 Q1 '24 actual $0.74, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.66 Q2 '24 actual $0.86, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.61 Q3 '24 actual $0.54, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.58 Q2 '25 actual $0.79, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.37 Q3 '25 actual $0.24, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.64 Q4 '25 actual $1.60, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.50 Q1 '26 actual $0.49, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.56 Q2 '26 actual $0.59, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.16 Q4 '26 estimate $0.47 Q1 '27 estimate $0.62
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1745.9%
Bearish12.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$30.48Current
$30Low
$50.19Average
$76High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2026
Macquarie Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 11, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 17, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 32 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $30.48. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesBen Chaiken$55$37.85 +80.4%Sep 24, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$55$43.64 +80.4%Aug 17, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$53$46.2 +73.9%Jul 29, 2026
Goldman SachsLizzie Dove$43$46.57 +41.1%Jul 15, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$48$46.28 +57.5%Jul 9, 2026
See 66 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

MGM Resorts International, through its various divisions, manages and possesses casino, lodging, and entertainment complexes across the United States and Macau. The company's operations are segmented into three main areas: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its resort properties offer a comprehensive suite of amenities including gaming facilities, accommodation, convention spaces, dining options, entertainment venues, retail outlets, and more.…

Historical context

All MGM earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T18:30:42.740579+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T18:30:42.737544+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.