Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1745.9%
Bearish12.7%
MGM Resorts International · MGM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
MGM: Macau and BetMGM strength offset Las Vegas pressure
MGM's Q3 narrative was mixed: Las Vegas remained under pressure, but record Macau EBITDAR, cash-generative BetMGM operations and capital discipline support management's longer-term growth outlook. The key test is whether group and convention demand can stabilize Las Vegas while planned investments remain disciplined.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$7.67B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.24
Consensus $0.37
EPS surprise
-35.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.25B
Consensus $4.42B
Revenue surprise
-3.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-1.6%
Event window
SPY move
-1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+14.9%
Up to 20 sessions
MGMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MGM FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MGM fall 1.6% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in MGM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MGM after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management highlighted a $546 million Northfield Park sale, quarterly BetMGM cash distributions beginning in Q4, a yen-denominated credit facility for MGM Osaka, and the decision to exit the New York commercial license project. The analysis also points to stronger Macau premium offerings and a raised guidance sentiment.
Guidance delta
Management's guidance sentiment was raised; the supplied analysis does not specify a numerical change.
Key takeaways
- Las Vegas remained pressured by lower occupancy and ADRs, while group and convention bookings showed signs of stabilization.
- BetMGM delivered record cash flow and is expected to begin returning capital to MGM Resorts.
- Macau posted record EBITDAR and introduced premium offerings including Alpha Gaming Club and Alpha Villas.
- The Northfield Park sale and New York project exit point to greater capital discipline.
- MGM continues to invest in Osaka, Marriott-driven room nights, digital expansion and an ARIA renovation.
Management priorities
- Support Las Vegas stabilization through group and convention demand.
- Expand BetMGM in Europe and Brazil while returning digital cash flow to shareholders.
- Develop premium Macau offerings and continue the MGM Osaka project.
- Maintain capital discipline, including potential share buybacks.
- Begin the ARIA room-renovation project slated for November 2026.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$30.48Current
$30Low
$50.19Average
$76High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| CBRE | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 22, 2025 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Market Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2021 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 30, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 21, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 3, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 2, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 3, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| CLSA | Outperform | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2015 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 9, 2014 |
| Argus Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 19, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2013 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2013 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 9, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 19, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2013 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 21, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $30.48. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $55 | $37.85 | +80.4% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $55 | $43.64 | +80.4% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.2 | +73.9% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $43 | $46.57 | +41.1% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $46.28 | +57.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48.3 | $46.4 | +58.5% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.1 | +57.5% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $48.97 | +60.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $48.97 | +60.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.12 | +64.0% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| CBRE | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $48.36 | +64.0% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $55 | $38.45 | +80.4% | May 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $38.94 | +44.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $38 | $38.7 | +24.7% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $42 | $39.27 | +37.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $39.27 | +28.0% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $30 | $38.36 | -1.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $37.89 | +14.8% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $36.68 | +11.5% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $50 | $35.91 | +64.0% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $37 | $36.28 | +21.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $33 | $35.41 | +8.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $34.82 | +24.7% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $36.84 | +24.7% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $33 | $37.38 | +8.3% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $30.9 | +47.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $31.21 | +37.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $31 | $31.21 | +1.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $62 | $31.21 | +103.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $47 | $32.67 | +54.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $31.28 | +90.3% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $39 | $35.95 | +28.0% | Sep 11, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $44 | $39.52 | +44.4% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $46 | $39.99 | +50.9% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $38 | $37.93 | +24.7% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $45 | $30.77 | +47.6% | Apr 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $39 | $33.23 | +28.0% | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $50 | $33.85 | +64.0% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| CFRA | Zachary Warring | $42 | $36.87 | +37.8% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | George Choi | $55 | $41.41 | +80.4% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $52 | $38.68 | +70.6% | Oct 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Stephen Grambling | $43 | $36.29 | +41.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| BTIG | Clark Lampen | $52 | $42.33 | +70.6% | Jul 2, 2024 |
| JMP Securities | Jordan Bender | $58 | $41.04 | +90.3% | May 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $54 | $39.75 | +77.2% | May 2, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $57 | $39.75 | +87.0% | May 2, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Vitaly Umansky | $56 | $42.48 | +83.7% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $62 | $47.78 | +103.4% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $23.2 | $45.84 | -23.9% | Aug 3, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $40.98 | +41.1% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $37.08 | +64.0% | Dec 5, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $58.5 | $31.06 | +91.9% | Sep 26, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Carlo Santarelli | $51 | $35.01 | +67.3% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $35.33 | +136.2% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $34.2 | +90.3% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Barry Jonas | $35 | $32.73 | +14.8% | Jul 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $28.68 | +60.8% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $30.36 | +83.7% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| JMP Securities | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $30.03 | +80.4% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $40 | $27.95 | +31.2% | Jun 18, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $34.15 | +57.5% | May 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.82 | +70.6% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.97 | +87.0% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thomas Allen | $51 | $41.08 | +67.3% | May 2, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.77 | +57.5% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Citigroup | George Choi | $57 | $47.07 | +87.0% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ben Combes | $76 | $47.07 | +149.3% | Feb 10, 2022 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $59 | $40.96 | +93.6% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $48 | $47.01 | +57.5% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Vitaly Umansky | $58.9 | $43.09 | +93.2% | Sep 13, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Joseph Greff | $52 | $42.66 | +70.6% | Jun 10, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MGM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMGM Resorts International, through its various divisions, manages and possesses casino, lodging, and entertainment complexes across the United States and Macau. The company's operations are segmented into three main areas: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, and MGM China. Its resort properties offer a comprehensive suite of amenities including gaming facilities, accommodation, convention spaces, dining options, entertainment venues, retail outlets, and more.…
Historical context
All MGM earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Get the MGM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T18:30:42.740579+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T18:30:42.737544+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.