Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold17 ratings
Bullish423.5%
Neutral1376.5%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. · MEDP · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Medpace sustains growth, but cancellations and mix pressure remain key tests
The evidence supports a durable-demand case through strong oncology and metabolic activity, backlog conversion, and productivity gains, but it is conditional: cancellations, pass-through mix, hiring execution, competition, and uncertain AI returns are material offsets.
Reported After market closeNASDAQHealthcare
$18.25B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.67
Consensus $4.19
EPS surprise
+11.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$708.5M
Consensus $689.3M
Revenue surprise
+2.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-15.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-15.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.1%
Up to 20 sessions
MEDPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MEDP FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MEDP fall 15.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MEDP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MEDP after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the discussion shifted from record bookings and backlog momentum toward elevated cancellations, mix-driven margin pressure, and the execution of hiring and initial AI deployment. Management still described demand and the longer-term growth path positively.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook while emphasizing normalization of pass-through mix, continued hiring, and gradual benefits from AI-enabled efficiency tools.
Key takeaways
- Growth remained strong, led by oncology and continued metabolic-program demand, while improved retention supported productivity.
- The main change was a sharp Q4 cancellation increase in metabolic work alongside a lower-margin reimbursable mix; management expects neither issue to become a lasting trend.
Management priorities
- Accelerate hiring while protecting productivity and retention.
- Deploy AI applications for feasibility analytics and efficiency, and normalize the revenue mix away from high-pass-through projects.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$669.2Current
$330Low
$565.12Average
$700High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 23, 2025 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 30, 2020 |
| Wells Fargo | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 28, 2018 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $669.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $602.9 | +4.6% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $625 | $602.9 | -6.6% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $673 | $622.11 | +0.6% | Sep 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ryan Halsted | $692 | $601.73 | +3.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $665 | $605.82 | -0.6% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $600 | $605.82 | -10.3% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $624 | $605.82 | -6.8% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Luke Sergott | $600 | $605.82 | -10.3% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $620 | $605.82 | -7.4% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $535 | $603 | -20.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $586 | $538.23 | -12.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Eric Coldwell | $547 | $546.29 | -18.3% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $515 | $565.09 | -23.0% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $402.81 | -40.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ryan Halsted | $484 | $393.42 | -27.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Eric Coldwell | $477 | $393.42 | -28.7% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Luke Sergott | $450 | $393.42 | -32.8% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Luke Sergott | $500 | $468.36 | -25.3% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $560 | $416.04 | -16.3% | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $539 | $431.16 | -19.5% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $582 | $446.05 | -13.0% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $446.05 | -31.3% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $564 | $455.64 | -15.7% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $600.02 | -1.4% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Luke Sergott | $525 | $557.78 | -21.5% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Jailendra Singh | $555 | $605.2 | -17.1% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $613 | $596.61 | -8.4% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $655 | $597.45 | -2.1% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $575 | $521.21 | -14.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $543.9 | -36.5% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Michael Cherny | $330 | $330.59 | -50.7% | Mar 24, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Eric Coldwell | $349 | $326.54 | -47.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $345 | $355.82 | -48.4% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Jailendra Singh | $415 | $382.52 | -38.0% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Eric Coldwell | $469 | $404.13 | -29.9% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Eric Coldwell | $456 | $403.74 | -31.9% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ann Hynes | $435 | $390.55 | -35.0% | May 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | David Windley | $450 | $376.26 | -32.8% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| UBS | John Sourbeer | $452 | $394.34 | -32.5% | Feb 15, 2024 |
Track every rating change on MEDP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationMedpace Holdings, Inc., founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992, functions as a contract research organization (CRO) delivering clinical development and research services. The company assists pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device clients throughout North America, Europe, and Asia. Its comprehensive suite of offerings covers the entire product lifecycle, from initial Phase I trials through to Phase IV post-market surveillance. Medpace's services include designing development programs, coordinating central laboratory functions, managing projects, navigating regulatory processes, overseeing clinical trials, handling data management and analytics, ensuring pharmacovigilance, aiding with new drug application submissions, and providing ongoing post-marketing clinical support. Furthermore, the company offers specialized bio-analytical laboratory testing, conducts clinical human pharmacology studies, provides imaging services, and delivers expert electrocardiography (ECG) reading for clinical research.
Historical context
All MEDP earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -0.3% | Dr. Reddy’s: Mix-led margin gains and semaglutide rollout |
| DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.5% | +1.8% | Quest Diagnostics: growth broadens, but PAMA remains a headwind |
| ARGX argenx SE | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -1.6% | argenx: VYVGART momentum and a broader late-stage pipeline |
| MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +12.7% | +0.8% | Molina reaffirms 2026 outlook as Florida contract scales |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FIXFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+8.2% EPS-8.5% move
- DECKFY2027 Q2 · October 22, 2026+13.4% EPS-0.2% move
- OMCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+2.2% EPS+2.6% move
- SSNCFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+0.6% EPS+2.8% move
- BEFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+36.0% EPS-8.7% move
- ROPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026+1.7% EPS+9.7% move
Missed on EPS
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
- HBANPFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS0.0% move
Get the MEDP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T00:30:43.930957+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T00:30:43.928242+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.