Medtronic plc · MDT · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Medtronic maintains FY26 outlook as diabetes separation reshapes the story

The call supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient demand and a portfolio of growth initiatives may support medium-term expansion, while the diabetes separation could improve margins and EPS. That case remains conditional on tariff mitigation, regulatory progress, back-loaded execution, and successful separation mechanics.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $111.48B market cap
70quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.58
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $8.81B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -2.3% Event window
SPY move -1.7% Same window
Abnormal move -0.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.3% Up to 20 sessions
MDTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Medtronic announced a two-step separation of its diabetes business, including an IPO of up to 20% followed by a split-off. Management also said R&D spending would outpace revenue growth for the first time in four years and highlighted a Hugo robot FDA filing for a urologic indication.

Guidance delta

Management maintained FY26 guidance of approximately 5% organic revenue growth and approximately 4% EPS growth excluding tariffs, with performance expected to be back-loaded.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Q4 FY25 as strong, with 5.4% organic revenue growth and high-single-digit EPS leverage.
  • The planned diabetes separation is expected to improve gross and operating margins by 50–100 basis points and provide a permanent EPS benefit.
  • Pulse-field ablation is a central growth initiative, with management targeting $2 billion in sales and near-term double-digit growth.
  • Management plans to accelerate R&D and increase sales and marketing investment in selected growth areas.
  • The main counterweights are tariffs, tax-rate pressure, mix-related margin effects, and execution around the diabetes separation.

Management priorities

  • Advance pulse-field ablation, structural heart, neuromodulation, diabetes, and surgical robotics products
  • Execute the two-step diabetes separation involving an IPO of up to 20% followed by a split-off
  • Increase R&D faster than revenue and expand sales and marketing for CAS, Ardian, and tibial stimulation
  • Progress Simplera Sync, MiniMed Flex, the 8-Series pump, Hugo indications, and Simplicity hypertension coverage

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MDT REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $8B Q3 '24 actual $8B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $8B Q4 '24 actual $9B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $8B Q1 '25 actual $8B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $8B Q1 '26 actual $9B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $9B Q2 '26 actual $9B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $9B Q3 '26 actual $9B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $10B Q4 '26 actual $10B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $10B Q1 '27 actual $10B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $9B Q3 '27 estimate $10B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy51 ratings
Bullish3160.8%
Neutral2039.2%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$86.72Current
$77Low
$104.88Average
$155High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainSep 30, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 2, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainSep 2, 2026
Stifel Hold HoldMaintainSep 2, 2026
Show 46 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $86.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$95$87.09 +9.6%Oct 6, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$92$91.5 +6.1%Sep 3, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$110$92.18 +26.9%Sep 3, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnthony Petrone$115$92.18 +32.6%Sep 2, 2026
Stifel NicolausRick Wise$95$92.04 +9.6%Sep 2, 2026
See 103 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Medtronic plc is a leading global medical technology enterprise that invents, develops, manufactures, and distributes an extensive range of device-based medical therapies. These solutions serve healthcare systems, clinicians, physicians, and patients across the world. The company's operations are categorized into several key portfolios: Cardiovascular Portfolio: This segment focuses on cardiac health, providing technologies for heart rhythm management, including implantable pacemakers, defibrillators, and monitoring systems, alongside cardiac ablation tools and remote patient software. It also addresses structural heart issues with products like aortic and pulmonary valves, surgical repair devices, and endovascular stent grafts, in addition to offerings for percutaneous coronary interventions (e.g., angioplasty balloons).…

Historical context

All MDT earnings

Healthcare peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-07T00:03:27.141652+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T16:20:43.937606+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T16:20:43.934938+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.