McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

McDonald’s Q3: Value Initiatives Lift U.S. Trend, Execution Risks Persist

Q3 analysis points to early improvement in U.S. comparable sales following value and digital initiatives, alongside continued international growth. The durability of that progress depends on effective value execution and franchisee alignment in a soft consumer environment.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $186.14B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $3.38
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $7.28B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +5.5% Event window
SPY move +1.8% Same window
Abnormal move +3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
MCDSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about MCD FY2026 Q3

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What drove MCD's +5.5% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in MCD's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for MCD after FY2026 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter’s reported U.S. execution and value-menu gaps, management’s Q3 analysis describes U.S. comparable sales turning positive in September after value-focused and digital interventions. The discussion now centers on a planned national entry-level value program and continued specialty-beverage and restaurant-transformation efforts.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment remained maintained. The supplied analysis says 2026 capex is projected at $3.7 billion, at the low end of prior guidance; it also describes an early-2027 national value-program rollout.

Key takeaways

  • Management’s analysis reports 1.5% global comparable-sales growth in Q3 and a return to positive U.S. comparable sales in September.
  • Value offers and digital initiatives are central to the described U.S. improvement; a national entry-level value program is planned for early 2027.
  • International growth and specialty beverages remain priorities, while management also highlighted remodels and smart-ordering initiatives.
  • The supplied analysis identifies consumer softness, regional disruptions and execution as material offsets.

Management priorities

  • Improve value positioning and maintain franchisee alignment on the planned value program.
  • Expand specialty beverages and digital offers.
  • Advance restaurant remodels and smart-ordering initiatives.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.82 Q4 '23 actual $2.95, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.72 Q1 '24 actual $2.70, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.97, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.20 Q3 '24 actual $3.23, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.14 Q2 '25 actual $3.19, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.33 Q3 '25 actual $3.22, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3.05 Q4 '25 actual $3.12, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '26 actual $2.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.32 Q2 '26 actual $3.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.38 Q4 '26 estimate $3.33 Q1 '27 estimate $3.04
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy62 ratings
Bullish3658.1%
Neutral2438.7%
Bearish23.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$279.06Current
$222.5Low
$302.85Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 30, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainOct 26, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 20, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 8, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 6, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $279.06. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$250$230.88 -10.4%Oct 8, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$280$233.04 +0.3%Oct 6, 2026
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$250$231.89 -10.4%Oct 5, 2026
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$270$231.89 -3.2%Oct 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$297$236.5 +6.4%Sep 28, 2026
See 162 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Historical context

All MCD earnings
+1.2%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-0.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-0.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
SN SharkNinja, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — +6.1% SharkNinja lifts 2026 outlook after another quarter of 20%+ sales growth
CPNG Coupang, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -90.3% +13.3% Coupang’s growth and membership momentum continue as margins remain pressured
BALL Ball Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +2.8% -7.1% Ball reports broad-based can-volume growth, with new capacity and cost risks ahead
RACE Ferrari N.V. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.6% +2.9% Ferrari raises 2026 guidance as personalization and order-book strength support Q3
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.3% -0.4% Yum’s post-divestiture focus meets a Taco Bell recovery test

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-04T17:09:24.794286+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-04T01:23:13.345574+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-04T17:50:47.647776+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-04T17:50:47.645020+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.