McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

McDonald's Q1 2026: Comp Sales Up 3.8% as Value Platform Drives Traffic

McDonald's entered FY2026 with solid but moderating growth. Global comparable sales rose 3.8% in Q1, down from 5.7% in Q4 2025, yet the company gained share in nearly all top markets. EPS of $2.83 beat estimates by 3.3% on revenue of $6.52B. The value platform (McValue under-$3 menu, Extra Value Meals) remains the primary traffic driver, complemented by high-impact marketing partnerships (Netflix, FIFA, Super Mario) and an expanding McCafe beverage lineup. International markets — notably the UK, Germany, and Australia — delivered mid- to high-single-digit comp growth. The key watch item is U.S. company-operated margins, which underperformed and triggered a strategic review of the ownership mix with potential refranchising. Management maintained full-year guidance and struck a confident tone, but the deceleration from Q4 and margin pressure in the U.S. warrant monitoring.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $192.31B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.83 Consensus $2.74
EPS surprise +3.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $6.52B Consensus $6.47B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.1% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +0.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.4% Up to 20 sessions
MCDSPY benchmark

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Why did MCD fall 0.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in MCD's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for MCD after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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What changed

Q1 FY2026 global comp sales growth of 3.8% decelerated from 5.7% in Q4 2025. U.S. company-operated restaurant margins underperformed, prompting management to review the ownership mix and consider refranchising underperforming company-operated stores — a new development not flagged in the prior quarter. The McCafe beverage platform expansion now includes a planned Red Bull-infused energy drink line launching later in 2026. Management noted that Middle East geopolitical volatility, while creating a challenging operating environment, had no material impact on Q1 results. The prior quarter's capex guidance of $3.7-$3.9B for 2026 was not revisited in Q1 commentary.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year targets and guidance sentiment was unchanged from the prior quarter. No new guidance figures were introduced, and capex outlook was not mentioned in Q1 commentary (prior quarter set $3.7-$3.9B for 2026). The company reaffirmed its target of 50,000 restaurants globally by end-2027 and plans to open approximately 1,000 new restaurants in China this year.

Key takeaways

  • Global comparable sales grew 3.8% with market-share gains in nearly all top markets, though growth decelerated from 5.7% in Q4 2025.
  • EPS of $2.83 beat consensus by 3.3%; revenue of $6.52B beat by 0.7%.
  • Value initiatives (McValue, Extra Value Meals) continue to drive traffic and incremental sales.
  • U.S. company-operated margins underperformed, triggering a strategic review of the ownership mix and potential refranchising.
  • International markets delivered solid growth: UK, Germany, and Australia posted mid- to high-single-digit comp sales increases.
  • New McCafe beverage platform expanding, with Red Bull-infused energy drinks planned for later in 2026.

Management priorities

  • Launch additional McCafe beverage flavors and Red Bull-infused energy drinks throughout 2026.
  • Continue the McValue under-$3 menu and meal-deal promotions.
  • Execute FIFA World Cup partnership activities across North America in June.
  • Open approximately 1,000 new restaurants in China this year, targeting 50,000 globally by end-2027.
  • Hold worldwide franchisee convention in June and Investor Day on September 23.
  • Review U.S. company-operated store ownership mix and evaluate refranchising opportunities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $2.72 Q1 '24 actual $2.70, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.97, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.20 Q3 '24 actual $3.23, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.14 Q2 '25 actual $3.19, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.33 Q3 '25 actual $3.22, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3.05 Q4 '25 actual $3.12, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '26 actual $2.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.32 Q2 '26 actual $3.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.38 Q4 '26 estimate $3.33 Q1 '27 estimate $3.04
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy62 ratings
Bullish3658.1%
Neutral2438.7%
Bearish23.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$250.83Current
$222.5Low
$302.85Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 27, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 20, 2026
Bernstein Market Perform Market PerformMaintainOct 8, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 6, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 5, 2026
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 5, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $250.83. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$250$230.88 -0.3%Oct 8, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$280$233.04 +11.6%Oct 6, 2026
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$250$231.89 -0.3%Oct 5, 2026
Wells FargoZachary Fadem$270$231.89 +7.6%Oct 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$297$236.5 +18.4%Sep 28, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Historical context

All MCD earnings
+1.2%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-0.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026+3.0%FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.4% -0.2% Deckers raises FY2027 outlook as HOKA and UGG drive growth
TSCO Tractor Supply Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.3% +6.2% Tractor Supply Q3: Pet and Digital Momentum Supports Margin Plan
PHM PulteGroup, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -4.5% +5.8% PulteGroup Holds Guidance as Buyer Traffic Slows

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T13:31:39.169561+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T13:31:39.166732+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.