McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

McDonald’s Q2 growth held up globally, but U.S. execution lagged

The quarter supports a mixed operating picture: international growth and the beverage platform were constructive, while U.S. execution and value positioning remain the main test of the recovery.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $176.12B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.38 Consensus $3.32
EPS surprise +1.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $7.10B Consensus $7.13B
Revenue surprise -0.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +1.2% Event window
SPY move +1.8% Same window
Abnormal move -0.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -2.7% Up to 20 sessions
MCDSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about MCD FY2026 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MCD rise 1.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in MCD's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MCD after FY2026 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied Q2 analysis places greater emphasis on U.S. execution gaps, corrective value actions, a new training initiative, the >NEXT strategy, and an AI-ready data lake. International growth and beverage momentum remained important supports.

Guidance delta

Maintained; no change in guidance was identified in the supplied analysis.

Key takeaways

  • System-wide sales grew 4% year over year, while U.S. comparable sales grew 0.8%.
  • International markets delivered solid comparable growth, led by Germany, Australia, the U.K., and Japan.
  • Management said the new beverage platform is lifting check sizes and generating incremental traffic.
  • Corrective actions target value-menu execution, digital offers, marketing allocation, and training.

Management priorities

  • Improve U.S. value and restaurant execution under the >NEXT growth strategy.
  • Expand the beverage platform and digital promotions.
  • Train more than 2 million crew and partners beginning October 5.
  • Continue restaurant openings and the rollout of AI-ready data capabilities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $6B Q4 '23 actual $6B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $6B Q1 '24 actual $6B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $7B Q2 '24 actual $6B, miss Q3 '24 estimate $7B Q3 '24 actual $7B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $7B Q2 '25 actual $7B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $7B Q3 '25 actual $7B, match Q4 '25 estimate $7B Q4 '25 actual $7B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $6B Q1 '26 actual $7B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $7B Q2 '26 actual $7B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $7B Q4 '26 estimate $7B Q1 '27 estimate $7B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3659.0%
Neutral2439.4%
Bearish11.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$250.35Current
$222.5Low
$310.56Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainSep 17, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 16, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 14, 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
Show 56 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $250.35. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$320$248.24 +27.8%Sep 21, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$290$257.49 +15.8%Sep 15, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$300$257.78 +19.8%Sep 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$308$252.53 +23.0%Sep 14, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$310$267.07 +23.8%Aug 26, 2026
See 148 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Historical context

All MCD earnings
-0.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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TCOM Trip.com Group Limited FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.3% +3.0% Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment
CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.7% -14.2% Casey's Q1: Prepared Food Drives Growth as Fuel Margins Stay Volatile
LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +63.1% -17.4% Lululemon lowers FY2026 outlook as North America weakens

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-04T20:07:54.268877+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-09T01:23:14.388487+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T01:10:55.361640+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T01:10:55.358939+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.