McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

McDonald's Q1 2026: Comp Sales Up 3.8% as Value Platform Drives Traffic

McDonald's entered FY2026 with solid but moderating growth. Global comparable sales rose 3.8% in Q1, down from 5.7% in Q4 2025, yet the company gained share in nearly all top markets. EPS of $2.83 beat estimates by 3.3% on revenue of $6.52B. The value platform (McValue under-$3 menu, Extra Value Meals) remains the primary traffic driver, complemented by high-impact marketing partnerships (Netflix, FIFA, Super Mario) and an expanding McCafe beverage lineup. International markets — notably the UK, Germany, and Australia — delivered mid- to high-single-digit comp growth. The key watch item is U.S. company-operated margins, which underperformed and triggered a strategic review of the ownership mix with potential refranchising. Management maintained full-year guidance and struck a confident tone, but the deceleration from Q4 and margin pressure in the U.S. warrant monitoring.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $192.31B market cap
100quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.83 Consensus $3
EPS surprise +3.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $6.52B Consensus $6.47B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $2.72 Q1 '24 actual $2.70, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.97, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.20 Q3 '24 actual $3.23, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.14 Q2 '25 actual $3.19, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.33 Q3 '25 actual $3.22, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3.05 Q4 '25 actual $3.12, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '26 actual $2.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.32 Q2 '26 actual $3.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.41 Q4 '26 estimate $3.33 Q1 '27 estimate $3.03
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3659.0%
Neutral2439.4%
Bearish11.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$253.46Current
$222.5Low
$312.08Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 26, 2026
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 6, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainAug 5, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 5, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 31, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainJul 27, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 23, 2026
Tigress Financial Buy BuyMaintainJul 17, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 16, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainJul 16, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 11, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainMay 8, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainMay 7, 2026
Rothschild & Co Neutral SellUpgradeApr 23, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Jefferies Buy BuyMaintainFeb 12, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform PerformUpgradeJan 6, 2026
Baird Neutral NeutralMaintainNov 6, 2025
BMO Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 4, 2025
Stifel Hold HoldMaintainAug 22, 2025
B of A Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 18, 2025
Goldman Sachs Buy NeutralUpgradeJul 10, 2025
Redburn Atlantic Sell BuyDowngradeJun 10, 2025
Loop Capital Hold BuyDowngradeJun 6, 2025
TD Securities Hold HoldMaintainJun 5, 2025
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainFeb 11, 2025
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2024
Erste Group Hold BuyDowngradeApr 3, 2024
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainFeb 6, 2024
DZ Bank Buy HoldUpgradeOct 31, 2023
Credit Suisse Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 26, 2023
Northcoast Research Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 10, 2023
Cowen & Co. Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 28, 2022
Bernstein Perform Market PerformMaintainSep 8, 2022
Kalinowski Research Buy NeutralUpgradeAug 15, 2022
Atlantic Equities Overweight NeutralUpgradeJun 29, 2022
MKM Partners Buy BuyMaintainApr 29, 2022
Telsey Advisory Group Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 4, 2021
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainMay 1, 2020
Kalinowski Buy NeutralUpgradeJan 22, 2020
Longbow Research Buy NeutralUpgradeNov 8, 2019
Piper Jaffray Neutral OverweightDowngradeNov 4, 2019
Stifel Nicolaus Hold HoldMaintainJul 29, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainJun 7, 2019
Gordon Haskett Buy BuyMaintainOct 19, 2018
Argus Buy HoldUpgradeMay 5, 2018
Nomura Buy BuyMaintainFeb 1, 2018
Canaccord Genuity Hold HoldMaintainAug 22, 2016
BTIG Research Buy BuyMaintainApr 25, 2016
PiperJaffray Overweight NeutralUpgradeOct 23, 2015
Cleveland Research Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 8, 2015
Susquehanna Neutral PositiveDowngradeJul 23, 2014
Sterne Agee Neutral BuyDowngradeJul 23, 2014
Janney Montgomery Scott Neutral BuyDowngradeJul 17, 2013
Janney Capital Neutral BuyDowngradeJul 17, 2013
Credit Agricole Outperform BuyMaintainApr 22, 2013
Raymond James Market Perform OutperformDowngradeJan 9, 2013
Lazard Neutral BuyDowngradeNov 26, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $253.46. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$310$267.07 +22.3%Aug 26, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$290$273.21 +14.4%Aug 5, 2026
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$295$273.92 +16.4%Aug 5, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$305$273.35 +20.3%Aug 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$319$273.25 +25.9%Aug 5, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$285$268.34 +12.4%Aug 5, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$345$268.34 +36.1%Aug 5, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$286$267.34 +12.8%Aug 4, 2026
UBSDennis Geiger$340$267.14 +34.1%Jul 27, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$350$262.8 +38.1%Jul 24, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$320$262.58 +26.3%Jul 23, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$300$264.95 +18.4%Jul 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$322$268.94 +27.0%Jul 15, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$325$273.98 +28.2%Jul 9, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$315$269.76 +24.3%Jun 29, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$331$281.05 +30.6%May 8, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$350$279.42 +38.1%May 8, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$320$283.7 +26.3%May 8, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$305$283.7 +20.3%May 7, 2026
Redburn PartnersAnalyst unavailable$306$300.07 +20.7%Apr 23, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$345$311.36 +36.1%Apr 20, 2026
Tigress FinancialIvan Feinseth$385$325.44 +51.9%Mar 6, 2026
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$380$332.08 +49.9%Feb 13, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$320$332.08 +26.3%Feb 13, 2026
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$370$330.19 +46.0%Feb 12, 2026
RBC CapitalLogan Reich$330$330.56 +30.2%Feb 12, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$375$323.88 +48.0%Feb 12, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$380$330.2 +49.9%Feb 12, 2026
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$335$323.21 +32.2%Feb 12, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$365$323.21 +44.0%Feb 12, 2026
BernsteinDanilo Gargiulo$340$323.21 +34.1%Feb 12, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$370$323.21 +46.0%Feb 12, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$355$323.21 +40.1%Feb 12, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$325$323.48 +28.2%Feb 6, 2026
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$325$318.53 +28.2%Feb 3, 2026
UBSDennis Geiger$350$318.17 +38.1%Feb 2, 2026
BTIGAnalyst unavailable$360$315 +42.0%Feb 2, 2026
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$356$304.16 +40.5%Jan 8, 2026
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$372$302.77 +46.8%Jan 7, 2026
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$355$302.77 +40.1%Jan 6, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$300$310 +18.4%Oct 27, 2025
Piper SandlerBrian Mullan$325$312.3 +28.2%Oct 22, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$362$307.48 +42.8%Oct 22, 2025
KeyBancEric Gonzalez$335$308.09 +32.2%Oct 20, 2025
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$335$307.07 +32.2%Oct 17, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$340$305.25 +34.1%Oct 16, 2025
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$295$293.81 +16.4%Oct 10, 2025
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$320$294.4 +26.3%Oct 8, 2025
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$315$314.07 +24.3%Aug 22, 2025
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$345$315.72 +36.1%May 5, 2025
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$350$311.96 +38.1%May 2, 2025
KeyBancEric Gonzalez$340$312.69 +34.1%Mar 27, 2025
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$335$291.52 +32.2%Oct 30, 2024
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$342$295 +34.9%Oct 29, 2024
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$290$296.79 +14.4%Oct 29, 2024
WedbushNick Setyan$295$297.62 +16.4%Oct 23, 2024
Goldman SachsChristine Cho$325$314.69 +28.2%Oct 23, 2024
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$285$314.69 +12.4%Oct 23, 2024
Evercore ISIDavid Palmer$340$314.69 +34.1%Oct 23, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesSara Senatore$322$316.56 +27.0%Oct 21, 2024
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$340$313.34 +34.1%Oct 15, 2024
UBSDennis Geiger$345$301.9 +36.1%Oct 9, 2024
KeyBancEric Gonzalez$330$303.76 +30.2%Oct 7, 2024
CitigroupJon Tower$317$302.98 +25.1%Oct 2, 2024
CitigroupJon Tower$301$292.35 +18.8%Sep 13, 2024
Bank of America SecuritiesSara Senatore$278$264.8 +9.7%Jul 30, 2024
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$300$263.49 +18.4%Jul 30, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$342$266.44 +34.9%Jul 30, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$315$266.44 +24.3%Jul 30, 2024
CitigroupJon Tower$275$261.42 +8.5%Jul 30, 2024
KeyBancEric Gonzalez$305$261.42 +20.3%Jul 30, 2024
Wells FargoJon Tower$285$261.42 +12.4%Jul 30, 2024
JefferiesAndy Barish$310$262.56 +22.3%Jul 29, 2024
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$295$261.42 +16.4%Jul 29, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$257$262.1 +1.4%Jul 29, 2024
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$295$252 +16.4%Jul 29, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$265$257.28 +4.6%Jul 22, 2024
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$280$249.99 +10.5%Jul 2, 2024
Maxim GroupThomas Forte$222.5$126.18 -12.2%Jun 13, 2024
Goldman SachsChristine Cho$288$254.48 +13.6%Jun 13, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsEric Gonzalez$310$252.07 +22.3%May 31, 2024
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$320$274.43 +26.3%May 2, 2024
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$330$272.07 +30.2%May 1, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$285$273.04 +12.4%Apr 30, 2024
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$320$266.8 +26.3%Apr 12, 2024
Stifel NicolausChris O'Cull$300$268.67 +18.4%Apr 11, 2024
Piper SandlerAisling Grueninger$299$267.56 +18.0%Apr 9, 2024
UBSDennis Geiger$335$270.09 +32.2%Apr 5, 2024
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$340$283.46 +34.1%Feb 6, 2024
StephensJoshua Long$320$285.94 +26.3%Feb 5, 2024
RBC CapitalChristopher Carril$315$262.17 +24.3%Oct 31, 2023
StephensJoshua Long$325$294.03 +28.2%Jul 28, 2023
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$315$288.55 +24.3%Apr 13, 2023
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$283$263.74 +11.7%Feb 3, 2023
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$300$267.23 +18.4%Feb 1, 2023
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$292$267.4 +15.2%Feb 1, 2023
CitigroupJon Tower$266.29$267.4 +5.1%Feb 1, 2023
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$277$267.4 +9.3%Feb 1, 2023
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$310$264.39 +22.3%Jan 5, 2023
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$315$267.25 +24.3%Dec 21, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$246$243.76 -2.9%Sep 27, 2022
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$267$258.42 +5.3%Sep 8, 2022
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$270$254.39 +6.5%Sep 7, 2022
Tigress FinancialAnalyst unavailable$320$255.16 +26.3%Aug 30, 2022
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$300$266.82 +18.4%Aug 18, 2022
Credit SuisseAnalyst unavailable$287$256.43 +13.2%Jul 27, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$285$257.09 +12.4%Jul 27, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$275$257.09 +8.5%Jul 27, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$305$257.09 +20.3%Jul 27, 2022
BMO CapitalAnalyst unavailable$285$257.09 +12.4%Jul 27, 2022
Cowen & Co.Analyst unavailable$290$257.09 +14.4%Jul 27, 2022
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$285$254.22 +12.4%Jul 18, 2022
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$263$252.5 +3.8%Jul 7, 2022
Atlantic EquitiesEdward Lewis$278$242.83 +9.7%Jun 29, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$289$245.61 +14.0%Jun 9, 2022
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$273$242.21 +7.7%May 25, 2022
Atlantic EquitiesEdward Lewis$245$243.5 -3.3%May 16, 2022
J.P. MorganAnalyst unavailable$275$242.77 +8.5%May 3, 2022
MKM PartnersAnalyst unavailable$295$252.32 +16.4%Apr 29, 2022
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$295$254.19 +16.4%Apr 29, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$273$254.19 +7.7%Apr 29, 2022
BTIGPeter Saleh$280$250.14 +10.5%Apr 25, 2022
RBC CapitalChristopher Carril$287$248.16 +13.2%Apr 25, 2022
CitigroupJon Tower$270$250.51 +6.5%Apr 17, 2022
UBSDennis Geiger$290$249.25 +14.4%Apr 3, 2022
Morgan StanleyJohn Glass$287$241.58 +13.2%Mar 25, 2022
OppenheimerBrian Bittner$280$237.47 +10.5%Mar 17, 2022
StephensJames Rutherford$280$222.79 +10.5%Mar 8, 2022
Robert W. BairdDavid Tarantino$283$222.79 +11.7%Mar 8, 2022
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$305$260.06 +20.3%Feb 6, 2022
BarclaysJeff Bernstein$305$254.67 +20.3%Jan 28, 2022
WedbushNick Setyan$270$254.67 +6.5%Jan 28, 2022
Credit SuisseLauren Silberman$285$254.67 +12.4%Jan 28, 2022
BMO CapitalAndrew Strelzik$270$254.67 +6.5%Jan 28, 2022
Evercore ISIDavid Palmer$300$254.67 +18.4%Jan 28, 2022
Stifel NicolausChris O`Cull$260$247.36 +2.6%Jan 27, 2022
JefferiesAndy Barish$306$247.36 +20.7%Jan 27, 2022
Goldman SachsJared Garber$284$247.36 +12.0%Jan 27, 2022
RBC CapitalChristopher Carril$303$247.36 +19.5%Jan 27, 2022
Truist FinancialJake Bartlett$280$247.36 +10.5%Jan 27, 2022
BTIGPeter Saleh$295$247.36 +16.4%Jan 27, 2022
KeyBancEric Gonzalez$285$248.47 +12.4%Jan 26, 2022
Piper SandlerNicole Miller$282$268.58 +11.3%Jan 3, 2022
Argus ResearchJohn Staszak$300$265.73 +18.4%Dec 30, 2021
Loop Capital MarketsAlton Stump$306$247.95 +20.7%Dec 3, 2021
GuggenheimGregory Francfort$275$242.8 +8.5%Oct 28, 2021
Deutsche BankBrian Mullan$268$242.8 +5.7%Oct 28, 2021
Wells FargoJon Tower$276$239.98 +8.9%Oct 13, 2021
Gordon Haskett Capital CorporationJeff Farmer$260$230.43 +2.6%Jul 20, 2021
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Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.1% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +0.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.4% Up to 20 sessions
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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Q1 FY2026 global comp sales growth of 3.8% decelerated from 5.7% in Q4 2025. U.S. company-operated restaurant margins underperformed, prompting management to review the ownership mix and consider refranchising underperforming company-operated stores — a new development not flagged in the prior quarter. The McCafe beverage platform expansion now includes a planned Red Bull-infused energy drink line launching later in 2026. Management noted that Middle East geopolitical volatility, while creating a challenging operating environment, had no material impact on Q1 results. The prior quarter's capex guidance of $3.7-$3.9B for 2026 was not revisited in Q1 commentary.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year targets and guidance sentiment was unchanged from the prior quarter. No new guidance figures were introduced, and capex outlook was not mentioned in Q1 commentary (prior quarter set $3.7-$3.9B for 2026). The company reaffirmed its target of 50,000 restaurants globally by end-2027 and plans to open approximately 1,000 new restaurants in China this year.

Key takeaways

  • Global comparable sales grew 3.8% with market-share gains in nearly all top markets, though growth decelerated from 5.7% in Q4 2025.
  • EPS of $2.83 beat consensus by 3.3%; revenue of $6.52B beat by 0.7%.
  • Value initiatives (McValue, Extra Value Meals) continue to drive traffic and incremental sales.
  • U.S. company-operated margins underperformed, triggering a strategic review of the ownership mix and potential refranchising.
  • International markets delivered solid growth: UK, Germany, and Australia posted mid- to high-single-digit comp sales increases.
  • New McCafe beverage platform expanding, with Red Bull-infused energy drinks planned for later in 2026.

Management priorities

  • Launch additional McCafe beverage flavors and Red Bull-infused energy drinks throughout 2026.
  • Continue the McValue under-$3 menu and meal-deal promotions.
  • Execute FIFA World Cup partnership activities across North America in June.
  • Open approximately 1,000 new restaurants in China this year, targeting 50,000 globally by end-2027.
  • Hold worldwide franchisee convention in June and Investor Day on September 23.
  • Review U.S. company-operated store ownership mix and evaluate refranchising opportunities.

Related earnings events

Consumer Cyclical

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T13:31:39.169561+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T13:31:39.166732+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.