McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

McDonald’s Q4: Value and marketing support growth as investment rises

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: value, marketing, loyalty and new restaurants are generating demand, while the next phase depends on converting higher investment into durable traffic and profitable growth.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $165.97B market cap
90quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.12 Consensus $3.05
EPS surprise +2.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $7.01B Consensus $6.84B
Revenue surprise +2.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -0.8% Event window
SPY move -0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +0.2% Up to 20 sessions
MCDSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about MCD FY2025 Q4

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MCD fall 0.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in MCD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for MCD after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management emphasized stronger value and marketing execution, an accelerated 2026 restaurant-opening plan, higher planned capex and broader technology deployment. A prior-quarter comparison was not available in the supplied analysis.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a specific guidance increase or decrease.

Key takeaways

  • Management attributed 5.7% system-wide comparable-sales growth to value initiatives and marketing, with U.S. comparable sales up 6.8%.
  • The company plans 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026 and expects 2026 capex of $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion for stores and technology.
  • Loyalty expansion, menu innovation and technology upgrades are central to the growth plan, while margins, macro conditions and execution remain key watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Scale value, marketing and menu innovation, including McValue, Best Burger and Big Arch.
  • Accelerate restaurant openings and expand the My McDonald’s Rewards program.
  • Invest in technology, including voice ordering, AI-enabled shift management and restaurant-platform enhancements.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.82 Q4 '23 actual $2.95, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.72 Q1 '24 actual $2.70, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.97, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.20 Q3 '24 actual $3.23, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.14 Q2 '25 actual $3.19, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.33 Q3 '25 actual $3.22, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3.05 Q4 '25 actual $3.12, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '26 actual $2.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.32 Q2 '26 actual $3.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.39 Q4 '26 estimate $3.33 Q1 '27 estimate $3.01
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy61 ratings
Bullish3659.0%
Neutral2439.4%
Bearish11.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$233.98Current
$222.5Low
$305.17Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 24, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 24, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 24, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainSep 24, 2026
Show 56 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $233.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$297$236.5 +26.9%Sep 28, 2026
Melius ResearchJacob Aiken-Phillips$230$236.5 -1.7%Sep 28, 2026
H.C. WainwrightAnalyst unavailable$250$237.02 +6.8%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$250$238.31 +6.8%Sep 24, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$295$240.37 +26.1%Sep 24, 2026
See 158 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Historical context

All MCD earnings
+1.2%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-0.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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AZO AutoZone, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.6% +3.3% AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan
LEN-B Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — — Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures
LEN Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — -4.1% Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds
TCOM Trip.com Group Limited FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.3% +3.0% Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment
CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.7% -14.2% Casey's Q1: Prepared Food Drives Growth as Fuel Margins Stay Volatile

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-29T18:21:02.230749+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-29T18:21:02.227990+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.