McDonald's Corporation · MCD · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

McDonald’s: Value initiatives support growth as U.S. traffic stays pressured

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: global demand and value-led initiatives are supporting growth, while U.S. traffic pressure, inflation and execution risks temper the outlook.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical $164.76B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.19 Consensus $3.14
EPS surprise +1.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $6.84B Consensus $6.70B
Revenue surprise +2.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.0% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +2.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +3.0% Up to 20 sessions
MCDSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about MCD FY2025 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MCD rise 3.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in MCD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for MCD after FY2025 Q2 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis was more constructive than the prior quarter: global comparable sales improved, value initiatives showed early U.S. traction, and digital, loyalty and expansion efforts advanced; the guidance stance remained maintained.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its guidance stance; the supplied analysis does not identify a change.

Key takeaways

  • Management described global comparable-sales growth of about 4% and highlighted value and affordability platforms as key growth engines.
  • U.S. traffic remained pressured, although the $5 Meal Deal and Snack Wraps showed early incremental lift in the supplied analysis.
  • Digital initiatives, loyalty expansion, restaurant openings and a beverage test remain important execution priorities.

Management priorities

  • Expand value-focused menu offerings and affordability platforms.
  • Scale digital capabilities, including edge computing, ready-on-arrival and loyalty.
  • Advance the beverage test and restaurant expansion plans.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MCD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.82 Q4 '23 actual $2.95, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2.72 Q1 '24 actual $2.70, miss Q2 '24 estimate $3.07 Q2 '24 actual $2.97, miss Q3 '24 estimate $3.20 Q3 '24 actual $3.23, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3.14 Q2 '25 actual $3.19, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3.33 Q3 '25 actual $3.22, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3.05 Q4 '25 actual $3.12, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '26 actual $2.83, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.32 Q2 '26 actual $3.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.39 Q4 '26 estimate $3.33 Q1 '27 estimate $3.04
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy62 ratings
Bullish3658.1%
Neutral2438.7%
Bearish23.2%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$231.89Current
$222.5Low
$305.17Average
$385High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 28, 2026
Melius Research Sell SellMaintainSep 28, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 24, 2026
RBC Capital Sector Perform Sector PerformMaintainSep 24, 2026
Show 57 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $231.89. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$297$236.5 +28.1%Sep 28, 2026
Melius ResearchJacob Aiken-Phillips$230$236.5 -0.8%Sep 28, 2026
H.C. WainwrightAnalyst unavailable$250$237.02 +7.8%Sep 25, 2026
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$250$238.31 +7.8%Sep 24, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$295$240.37 +27.2%Sep 24, 2026
See 158 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

McDonald's Corporation operates and licenses its renowned fast-food chain worldwide, with a significant presence in both the United States and international markets. Their comprehensive menu offers classic items like hamburgers and cheeseburgers, a variety of chicken options including sandwiches and nuggets, alongside lighter choices such as wraps, french fries, and salads. For breakfast, patrons can select from offerings like biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes. Additionally, the company provides oatmeal, an assortment of desserts including milkshakes, sundaes, and soft-serve ice cream, plus a selection of baked goods. A wide array of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages completes their offering. By December 31, 2021, the corporation's global network encompassed 40,031 establishments. McDonald's Corporation, founded in 1940, has its main corporate office located in Chicago, Illinois.

Historical context

All MCD earnings
+1.2%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-0.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-0.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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CCL Carnival Corporation & plc FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.9% +13.4% Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 0.0% -3.0% Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth
AZO AutoZone, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.6% +3.3% AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan
LEN-B Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — — Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures
LEN Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — -4.1% Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T11:00:42.460334+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T11:00:42.457294+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.